Logan Urban vs Josh Quinlan
- Logan Urban
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Tools: Urban has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
- Josh Quinlan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Tools: Quinlan has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Most of the books have Quinlan as a 3 to 1 favorite right now, but that’s crazy to me. There’s just too many unknowns in this fight. Starting with Urban, there is not a lot of video on him out there. Every single one of his wins are over tomato cans. And every single one of his wins have come by finish. 5 wins. 3 knockouts. 2 submissions. He takes this fight on less than a week’s notice. Has he been training for another fight? Did he come off the couch? And I’m also not that confident in grading Quinlan’s tools. Based on what I’ve seen, it’s possible his striking and grappling both could just be 50s. They’re more likely to both be 55s and I have him graded there for now. But this whole fight is a big giant unknown.
Chris’ Pick: Quinlan by decision.
Mario Sousa vs Chidi Njokuani
- Mario Sousa
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Sousa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average grappling (45).
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 19-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Tools: Njokuani has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Let’s get this straight from the start. I don’t care what Sousa’s record says, he lost his last fight to Mariusz Ksiazkiewicz. Sousa was taken down and controlled all 3 rounds. Horrible decision. That said, this is a better matchup for Sousa. Njokuani probably has the wrestling to take him down but it’s not his style and not how he can get a spectacular win. But even on the feet, Njokuani has the edge.
Chris’ Pick: Njokuani by 2nd round knockout.
Saimon Oliveira vs Jose Alday
- Saimon Oliveira
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Oliveira has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jose Alday
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-5
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 5-5 fighter to a split draw.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-1 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 7-2 wrestler. Split decisions over John Castaneda and Gustavo Lopez.
- Tools: Alday has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Should be a close fight. Should be a stand up fight. I got to project the fight a little to pick though because the skills on paper are pretty close. I do think Oliveira has more power, but Alday is coming off a 1st round knockout and even the fight before that, he got close to knocking his opponent out. But the big reason I’m picking Oliveira is that Alday is taking this fight on short notice and the lack of a gas tank will cause him to fade down the stretch.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by decision.
Bruno Korea vs Carlos Vergara
- Bruno Korea
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-3
- Key Draws: Fought a 13-2 grappler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 14-2 grappler and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 9-2 grappler.
- Tools: Korea has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Carlos Vergara
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jacob Silva.
- Tools: Vergara has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
On paper, Vergara knocking out Silva looks great. But if you actually watch the fight, you’ll see that Silva got close to knocking Vergara out in the 1st. Blitzed too hard. Failed to get him out. And gassed out by the start of the 2nd round. And that’s when upsets happen. But the bigger problem for Vergara is that I have his wrestling graded a 45 and that’s not a high enough level to stuff the types of take downs Korea has.
Chris’ Pick: Korea by 1st round submission.
Muin Gafurov vs Chad Anheliger
- Muin Gafurov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 16-3
- Key Losses: Lost to a 13-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 10-2-1 grappler. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
- Tools: Gafarov has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Chad Anheliger
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brady Hiestand, a 4-1 grappler, and a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Anheliger has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
At first, I was going to pick Anheliger. I had Gafurov graded as a 55 wrestler. But I did some more digging on how good his wrestling is and I think a 60 grade is more accurate. I do think Anheliger is better on the feet, but that’s not going to matter with Garufov more than likely being able to take him down and smash him on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Gafurov by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.