Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Blachowicz has near plus plus striking (75). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Glover Teixeira
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 14-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Ryan Bader and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ovince St. Preux and Ion Cutelaba. Split decision over Nikita Krylov.
- Tools: Teixeira has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
The story behind Blachowicz’s rise isn’t necessarily the polish power. It’s how he improved his striking in general to a near plus plus 75 grade. He lands way, way more than he used to. He’s always had power. He’s always had wrestling. That’s been the difference. His striking with Dominick Reyes until he knocked Reyes out. And he edged out Adesanya in the striking too. For Teixeira, he’s on an inspirational run right now. He’s 41 years old, but has won 5 in a row. But if you dig deeper on those wins, you’ll see a split decision win over Krylov, that I thought Krylov won. He fought Smith, Smith went way too aggressive in the 1st round, gassed out, and Texeira took over after that. Then Teixeira’s fight with Santos, Santos nearly knocked Teixeira out twice, but gassed out trying to get the finish. Look, Teixeira is a world class light heavyweight. But Blachowicz isn’t going to make the types of mistakes Santos made. He’s not going to gas himself out and over reach. He’ll be patient, take his time. I don’t see Teixeira having any chance here.
Chris’ Pick: Blachowicz by 1st round knockout.
Petr Yan vs Cory Sandhagen
- Petr Yan
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson.
- Tools: Yan has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Corey Sandhagen
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
- Tools: Sandhagen has near plus plus striking (75). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
I can’t really tangibly grade it, but Yan’s best tool is his cardio. Aldo and Sterling were both looking pretty good against Yan early, but then started to gas out and Yan was able to take over. The problem for Yan in this fight is that Sandhagen isn’t going to gas out. We just saw Sandhagen’s cardio hold up in a 5 round fight with TJ Dillashaw. And we’ve seen that Yan can be out struck. Sandhagen also has way more power. And because of regency bias, Sandhagen is priced at +200. That’s an early Christmas present.
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by 2nd round knockout.
Dan Hooker vs Islam Makhachev
- Dan Hooker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-3 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
- Tools: Hooker has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Losses: Knocked by Adriano Martins.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gleison Tibau. Submitted Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Tools: Makhachev has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75) and near plus grappling (65).
There are two strong facts that stand out to me. 1) Makhachev has been dominant and I feel now deserves the hype. And 2) He’s never fought anyone on the level of Hooker. And it’s puzzled me why so many faded Hooker going into his fight with Haqparast. Hooker fought possible future champ Dustin Poirier and was inches away from winning that fight. Hooker is as close to the top of the food chain as you get. I also think Hooker has the ability to get back up. His 70 wrestling is legit. I do think large portions of this fight are on the feet and while Makhachev’s striking has improved to a 65, he lacks power. He’s more of a volume puncher. Only 1 of Makhachev’s wins came from KO, a knockout over Gleison Tibau years ago. On the feet, I think Hooker knocks him out. And I’m just stunned to see Hooker as high as +500. That’s flat out nuts. Obviously, Hooker is the best value on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Hooker by 1st round knockout.
Alexander Volkov vs Marcin Tybura
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Greg Hardy.
- Tools: Volkov has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
- Tools: Tybura has striking that’s a little above average (55) and plus wrestling (70).
Okay, okay, I will give Tybura credit. His wrestling has improved to a 70. I’ll give him that now. But while that tool has dramatically improved, his striking has not. He took Harris down and that won him the fight. But he came close to being knocked out multiple times. Volkov has better striking and way better cardio than Harris or Hardy. Volkov will get back up if he’s taken down. I don’t see Tybura lasting 3 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Volkov by 2nd round knockout.
Jingliang Li vs Khamzat Chimaev
- Jingliang Li
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio, Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada.
- Tools: Jingliang has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Khamzat Chimaev
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Chimaev has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
This is a tricky fight because although we all know Chimaev is good, we just don’t know how good yet. He took on a couple average opponents his first 2 fights in. Meerschaert is a quality opponent, but knocked him out in 17 seconds. Then Chimaev went down with a bad case of covid and he hasn’t fought in over a year. I’m pretty sure the striking is a 65 and the wrestling is a 70. But I can’t say I’m 100% confident in that yet. If it is a 70, he’ll have no problem taking Jingliang down.
Chris’ Pick: Chimaev by decision.
Volkan Oezdemir vs Magomed Ankalaev
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Tools: Oezdemir has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Nikita Krylov and Klidson Abreu.
- Tools: Ankalaev has plus striking (70) and near plus plus wrestling (75).
Despite getting knocked out by Jiri Prochazka, Oezdemir has been getting better. Specifically, his wrestling has gotten a lot better. And he’s much more efficient with his striking and how he manages his gas tank. And Oezdemir was actually out striking Prochazka before getting knocked out. Go figure. But Ankalaev’s last fight was with Nikita Krylov, someone who has 65 grappling. A similar level to Oezdemir’s wrestling. And in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, Ankalaev was able to take Krylov down, beat him up, and controlled him until the end of the rounds. That’s 75 wrestling and that will be a problem for Oezdemir.
Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by decision.
Amanda Ribas vs Virna Jandiroba
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Randa Markos and MacKenzie Dern.
- Tools: Ribas has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jandiroba has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus grappling (70).
If you look at the data from Jandiroba’s last fight with Murata, you could say wow, Jandiroba really out classed her on the feet. Total wipeout. But the context you’d miss is that Jandiroba had Murata in an arm bar in the 1st round and messed up Murata’s arm. The arm was dangling on Murata’s side the rest of the fight. Jandiroba’s striking has improved, but not as much as the data might say. But this is really a showcase fight for Ribas. The grappling will cancel itself out on the feet. Ribas is way more polished, has way more power.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by 2nd round knockout.
Zubaira Tukhugov vs Ricardo Ramos
- Zubaira Tukhugov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Lerone Murphy to a draw.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Hakeem Dawodu and Renato Moicano.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Aguilar. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade.
- Tools: Tukhugov has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang.
- Tools: Ramos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Coin flip type fight not only because of Ramos’ ability to take the fight down, but also because of his near plus 65 grappling that can catch Tukhugov is a choke. Just like with Ramos’ Algeo fight, he’s going to be relentless with the grappling and has the cardio to do it all fight. Tukhugov’s cardio will be tested, but he’s got such a monster advantage in the striking, I think he’s going to catch Ramos. And those 2 losses that Ramos has in the UFC, how’d they happen? KO.
Chris’ Pick: Tukhugov by 2nd round knockout.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Benoit St. Denis
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision win over Lyman Good.
- Tools: Zaleski dos Santos has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out a 13-4 grappler.
- Tools: St. Denis has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
Interesting fight. St Denis’ grappling is really good, but how good is it? I have him graded as a 60 for now, but it’s possible it could be as high as a 65. I think he’ll probably be able to get Zaleski dos Santos down a couple times. Especially early. Could St Denis catch him in a choke? Yeah, it’s a very real possibility. But the most likely outcome that plays out is Zaleski dos Santos getting back up and keeping the fight standing up long enough to get the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos by 2nd round knockout.
Roman Kopylov vs Albert Duraev
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Kopylov has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Albert Duraev
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 wrestler, a 5-0 grappler, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 32-5 fighter and a 30-5 grappler. Beat Sergey Khandozhko and a 13-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Duraev has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
I think Kopylov has some potential but this is a horrible match up for him. Duraev looks like a guy that’s very similar to Khamzat Chimaev. 65 wrestling. Duraev’s main training partner is Sean Strickland and word is their sparring is competitive. I don’t think we’re going to see much striking here. Take down. Duraev beats up Kopylov until he gets the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Duraev by 1st round submission.
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Shamil Gamzatov
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Tools: Oleksiejczuk has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Shamil Gamzatov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Split decision over Klidson Abreu. Knocked out a 9-2 striker.
- Tools: Gamzatov has striking that’s a little above average paried with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Gamzatov hasn’t fought in close to 2 years and this fight will depend on how good his wrestling and cardio is. I have it graded as a 60 for now, but it might be a 65. The question though is if he tries to wrestle Oleksiejczuk all fight, how tired does he get? Ultimately, I don’t think Gamzatov gets take downs. Or even if he does, Oleksiejczuk gets back up. And for the life, I don’t understand Gamzatov being a -165. How? His only fight in the UFC, he eked out a split decision win over Klidson Abreu. And Abreu is okay, but he went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. I love Oleksiejczuk at +135.
Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 3rd round knockout.
Makwan Amirkhani vs Lerone Murphy
- Makwan Amirkhani
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Kamuela Kirk. Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
- Key Wins: Submitted Danny Henry and Chris Fishgold.
- Tools: Amirkhani has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-0-1
- UFC Record: 2-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Ramos. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Murphy has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Grappler vs striker. And Amirkhani is an interesting guy right now. He has great tools. Fought with Edson Barboza. He lost. But the fight proved the tools he has are legit. 60 striking. 65 grappling. But then he loses to an 11-4 fighter like Kamuela Kirk. And is Kirk really that good? I guess we’ll see. So I’m not sure what to make of Amirkhani right now. And with Murphy, he has title contender upside. But for him to win, he’s going to need to defend relentless take downs and be able to get back. He needs to keep the fight standing up as long as possible. Now, I’d like Murphy around -200, but the line opens with Murphy at -350. That’s way too heavy for me and I think Amirkhani has a little bit of value if you can get him close to +300.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy by 2nd round knockout.
Yaozong Hu vs Andre Petroski
- Yaozong Hu
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Cyril Asker and Rashad Coulter.
- Tools: Yaozong has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record:
- Tools: Petroski has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Yaozong had 2 UFC fights at heavyweight. Now he’s moving down to, not 205 lbs, but 185 lbs. Huge drop. No one moves down and skips a weight class like that. But guys, Yaozong was signed because the UFC needs heavyweights. He was 3-0 when signed. Maybe that flies in a division as thin as heavyweight. But now Yaozong is a 3-2 middleweight. And maybe Yaozong’s striking jumps to a 55 in a better weight class, but there’s no way anyone can project him to jump from 50 striking to a 60 with a 3-2 record. I just don’t see the logic in how that happens. Meanwhile, Petroski has shown to be a bit of a flawed fighter so far. He’s got very poor cardio. Makes bad decisions with how to manage his energy in fights. I can see the case for picking Yaozong, but you’d be doing it off projection. Projecting that his striking should be better at a smaller weight class. But because I try to pick based off existing tools vs projection, I have to pick Petroski based on him getting some take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Petroski by split decision.
Damir Ismagulov vs Magomed Mustafaev
- Damir Ismagulov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 23-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez.
- Tools: Ismagulov has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Magomed Mustafaev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brad Riddell.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Fiziev and Abubakar Nurmagomedov.
- Tools: Mustafaev has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Finally, a real test for Ismagulov. Great fight. And Ismagulov is going to need his wrestling and cardio to win. Because standing up with Mustafaev would get him knocked out. It’s possible Ismagulov has 70 wrestling. Worst case it’s a 65. I’m confident Ismagulov will have better cardio here. I think he fights smart and edges out Mustafaev.
Chris’ Pick: Ismagulov by split decision.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Allan Nascimento
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Ulanbekov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Allan Nascimento
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 grappler and a 10-3 grappler. Beat a well rounded 16-4 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Nascimento has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
I love this fight. Two guys with title contender upside. And Nascimento is 1 fight removed from a super competitive fight with Raulian Paiva. A fight that could’ve gone either way. And we’ve seen how well Paiva has done in the UFC. Ulanbekov’s only had 1 UFC fight as well and he had a really close fight with Bruno Silva. And we’ve seen how well Silva’s been doing. I like Ulanbekov slightly here. He’ll have the reach advantage. Maybe a little more power. Will probably mix in a couple take downs. But I’ll say this about the line. Ulanbekov at -300 is just crazy. Anybody that think that’s the right line didn’t watch Nascimento fight Paiva. Ulanbekov should be the favorite, but the price should be way lighter, like -150.
Chris’ Pick: Ulanbekov by decision.