Giga Chikadze vs Calvin Kattar
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. Beat Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Tools: Chikadze has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Calvin Kattar
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Dan Ige.
- Tools: Kattar has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
Kattar is my favorite bet on this card, by far. Classic example of regency bias. Yes, Chikadze looked great in knocking out Barboza. But guys, let’s look back on how things were before Kattar fought Max Holloway. Holloway was only a -160 favorite. And lots of smart people were picking Kattar to win that fight. And lots of other smart people think that if Kattar vs Zabit was a 5 round fight, Kattar would’ve won. The top reason I’m picking Kattar? The wrestling. Kattar has real 70 wrestling. Ige tried taking Kattar down 9 times and he failed 9 times. Ige has 65 grappling. Zabit also couldn’t take Kattar down in 4 attempts. And the last time Chikadze fought a wrestler was Jamall Emmers. Emmers has 60 wrestling. Emmers was able to take Chikadze down and control him for a bit. I graded Chikadze’s wrestling a 55 following that fight.. Since then, Chikadze has fought zero wrestlers. And I’m even giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’s gotten better bumping his wrestling up to a 60. If Kattar is smart, the game plan should be to tire Chikadze out like he tired out Zabit. And how Emmers tired out Chikadze. Clinch against the fence. Mix in a couple take downs. Kattar’s cardio will be way better. Kattar is very durable, as shown in the Holloway fight. And on the feet, it’s 50/50. So you’re getting all that in Kattar for +180? Sign me up.
Chris’ Pick: Kattar by decision.
Chase Sherman vs Jake Collier
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Tools: Sherman has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jake Collier
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-2 at heavyweight. 3-3 at light heavyweight.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Tools: Collier has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Fun fight and it’s priced correctly. Collier at -130. Slight edge. Collier is the volume guy, great cardio for a heavyweight. Sherman can throw a lot of volume too, but he slowed down significantly in the 3rd round in his last fight with Parker Porter. But. Sherman has way more power. And Collier did get knocked out by Tom Aspinall in less than a minute. And considering heavyweight is the division least likely to go to the judges score cards, this fight is pretty close to a coin flip.
Chris’ Pick: Collier by decision.
Brandon Royval vs Rogerio Bontorin
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Royval has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Rogerio Bontorin
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva. Submitted a 15-4 grappler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 13-0 fighter. Beat Matt Schnell. Split decision win over Magomed Bibulatov.
- Tools: Bontorin has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Flash knockouts happen. And when you’re scrambling all fight with a grappler as dangerous as Alexandre Pantoja, you can get caught in chokes. So Royval has another loss on his record, but that Pantoja fight was going back and forth on the feet and on the ground. I’m confident that Royval has well rounded plus 70 tools. And I’m also pretty confident in where I’ve graded Bontorin. Royval will have a big power advantage and I’m very confident Royval will have better cardio too. I’d have Royval priced near -250, but he can be had for -170 in most books currently. Solid value as I see Royval as a near lock.
Chris’ Pick: Royval by 2nd round knockout.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Jennifer Maia
- Katlyn Chookagian
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 125 lbs. 8-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Viviane Araujo, Cynthia Calvillo, Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana.
- Tools: Chookagian has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has plus wrestling (70).
- Jennifer Maia
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis, and Roxanne Modafferi.
- Tools: Maia has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus grappling (65).
Maia might be most famous for fighting Valentina Shevchenko and winning 1 round in that fight. Not many women do that. And based on that, a lot of people, including myself, thought Maia’s grappling had risen to a 70 grade. It was priced that way going into Maia’s fight with Eye. But surprisingly, Maia didn’t have much interest in trying to take Eye down. Even the commentators were taken aback by it. And even more surprising, Eye seemed to win most of the clinch battles on the fence. Seems like Maia’s grappling is more of a 65 after all, that when Maia took Shevchenko down, Shevchenko was content to lose the round to stay out of danger. Because Shevchenko did bounce back to dominate the grappling the last 3 rounds of that fight. With Chookagian, I’m pretty sure her wrestling is a 70, but even if it’s not, there’s margin here. Highly doubt Maia gets it to the ground. And on the feet, I give Chookagian credit for having legit 70 striking, albeit with 50 power. I’d price Chookagian at -275, so to see her right now at -165, that’s a deal. I’m confident that number will increase as we get closer to the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Chookagian by decision.
Viacheslav Borshchev vs Dakota Bush
- Viacheslav Borshchev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Borshchev has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Dakota Bush
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 wrestler. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Bush has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This fight could play out a like like Borshchev’s Contender fight. The guy he fought was really good. A 7-0 striker. 55 striking, 55 wrestling. Borshchev got taken down a couple times. Got back up. Was out landing Duncan and got the KO. With Bush, he took the fight with Austin Hubbard on 8 days notice. Blitzed Hubbard. Started to gas out towards the end of the 1st round. He lost the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Did okay overall. But if he has a full camp and doesn’t gas out, could he look like he did in the 1st round for a whole fight? Is it possible his wrestling could be a 60? Maybe. Too many unknowns for me to bet Borshchev, but he’s most likely to win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Borshchev by 2nd round knockout.
Joanderson Brito vs Bill Algeo
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Tools: Brito has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 27-8 grappler. Beat Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Algeo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Just like with the fight below, this fight could go either way. Both have paths to win. I think Algeo is most likely to win. He should land more. Should have better cardio. But Brito probably has more power, might be a better wrestler. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brito wins, but I think Algeo is able to out last him.
Chris’ Pick: Algeo by decision.
Joseph Holmes vs Jamie Pickett
- Joseph Holmes
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Holmes has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker. Beat Laureano Staropoli.
- Tools: Pickett has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
I’m confident Pickett has 55 striking. He might have 55 wrestling, but I’m grading it as a 50 for now due to Laureano Staropoli being able to out wrestle him. With Holmes, he looked even better in his last fight at Fury FC than he did on The Contender. He seems to have power, but prefers to jump on chokes when his opponents are hurt. He’s 6’4 which is tied for the tallest in the weight class with Israel Adesanya. And he’s now training at Glory MMA with James Krause and we know what those guys have been doing this past year. All these things are problems for Pickett. It’s possible Holmes grappling is a 60. Might be able to take Pickett down and keep him there. But the biggest problem is going to be Holmes’ reach and ability to control range. I’d have Holmes priced at -350, but instead he can be had for -155. I don’t think most of the betting public realizes how good Holmes is yet.
Chris’ Pick: Holmes by decision.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Court McGee
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sasha Palatnikov and a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Brahimaj has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Court McGee
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudio Silva.
- Tools: McGee has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Decent price on Brahimaj. Most books have this fight a pick em. But I think Brahimaj’s grappling is slightly better than McGee’s wrestling. On the feet it’s close. I almost gave McGee a 60 grade on his striking with how well he did on the feet with Silva. But Brahimaj is a grappler. He looked way, way improved in his last fight compared to his UFC debut with Max Griffin. I see Brahimaj going for lots of take downs and will control most of the fight. Could be back and forth for a bit, but I see Brahimaj getting the win. I’d price Brahimaj near -200.
Chris’ Pick: Brahimaj by decision.
Brian Kelleher vs Kevin Croom
- Brian Kelleher
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Domingo Pilarte and Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
- Tools: Kelleher has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Kevin Croom
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 20-13
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 16-8 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Croom has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
Going into Kelleher’s Pilarte fight, I had him priced at -325. But the odds closed with him as just a -175. But he blew those expectations out of the water. For all 3 rounds of the fight, he took Pilarte down, kept him down, and clobbered him the whole fight. Best performance of Kelleher’s career. I had Pilarte going into that fight with 55 grappling. So I have to upgrade Kelleher’s wrestling to a 65. And that’s a big problem for Croom who’s a bit of a one dimensional fighter. He took on Alex Caceres last time out. Did pretty good in the grappling. Proved his grappling was a 60. But also showed he had zero interest fighting Caceres in the stand up. Proved his striking is an average 50 and power is a below average 40. Kelleher is an even tougher matchup. Better wrestling than Caceres. More power than Caceres. Add in the fact that Croom comes in on 3 days notice. Line hasn’t come out yet but I expect Kelleher to be a big favorite. I’d price him near -350.
Chris’ Pick: Kelleher by decision.
Charles Rosa vs TJ Brown
- Charles Rosa
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Darrick Minner. Split decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
- Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Split decisions over Kevin Aguilar and Justin Jaynes.
- Tools: Rosa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- TJ Brown
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-8
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Kai Kamaka.
- Tools: Brown has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Yes, Brown’s striking is better. But his last fight with Kamaka, the striking was close to equal. And there’s a zero chance that Kamaka has 60 striking. No way. He’s got 55 striking for sure, no better than that. Which means I’m confident Brown’s striking is also a 55. Rosa has amazingly alternated wins and losses his whole UFC career. Loses, wins, loses, wins, etc. He’s a known quantity. But he’s fighting on 3 days notice. Which puts him at a huge disadvantage cardio wise. But what if he’s been training? Brown should be the favorite, but if all things were equal and both fighters had full camps, Rosa would likely win that fight. And the lines are just starting to come out but on average I’m seeing Rosa at +225. I think this is a stand up fight. I think Rosa has better striking. And I think he’ll win the first 2 rounds before gassing out and holding on in the 3rd. I’m picking Rosa in the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by decision.