Oliveira vs Gaethje, Namajunas vs Esparza, Ferguson vs Chandler Fight Picks - UFC 274 - May 7, 2022 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

Charles Oliveira
Age: 32
UFC Record: 20-8
Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Justin Gaethje
Age: 33
UFC record: 6-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler.
Striking: near plus plus (75)
Power: near plus plus (75)
Wrestling: plus (70)

This fight could play out very similar to how Oliveira vs Poirier did. I have Gaethje and Poirier graded exactly the same. And Poirier clearly won the 1st round against Oliveira. Out struck him 47 to 35. Crazy pace. But Oliveira switched things up in the 2nd round. Started to really focus on his grappling. And it worked. And it was a little weird too with Poirier getting put on his back, not making any effort to scramble up to his feet. Later on saying he didn’t want to risk getting submitted. Clearly the loss to Khabib was still in his head. And Poirier didn’t offer much resistance in the 3rd round. And it’s possible the same thing could happen to Gaethje. Because he got submitted by Khabib too. Before the Khabib fight, we really didn’t know where Gaethje’s wrestling was at. And even after the Khabib fight, I still had questions. But I think Gaethje’s fight with Chandler really solved it. Chandler proved he had 70 wrestling based on what he did in his Oliveira fight. Chandler tried to take Gaethje down a couple times and didn’t get close. So I feel comfortable in grading his wrestling tool a 70 now. So to me, this is a coin flip fight. Gaethje can win on the feet, Oliveira could win on the ground. But I’m picking Gaethje because he’s got slightly more power than Poirier. Really close to an 80. I just think that if Gaethje is able to land the same way that Poirier landed in the 1st round, Oliveira will get knocked out.

Chris’ Pick: Gaethje by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Gaethje -125

Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza

Rose Namajunas
Age: 29
UFC Record: 11-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: plus (70)

Carla Esparza
Age: 34
UFC Record: 9-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randa Markos.
Key Wins: Submitted Rose Namajunas back in 2014. Submitted Angela Hill. Knocked out Xiaonan Yan. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso by majority decision (I thought Grasso won that fight). Split decision over Marina Rodriguez.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)

I’ve had Namajunas’ striking at a 75 grade the past couple fights. But after seeing the 2nd Zhang fight play out and looking at the numbers, I have to downgrade it back to a 70. I know Zhang has 70 striking. And the striking between Namajunas and Zhang was close to equal. But Namajunas’ grappling still holds up as a 70. The back and forth grappling in that fight was all about Zhang’s wrestling improving at Fight Ready in Arizona. Which is important because that’s what Esparza will want to do all fight. Wrestle. Grind. In fact, Esparza’s best chance to win is to tire Namajunas out from all the wrestling. But I don’t see that happening as Namajunas has lots of experience going 5 rounds. Never gassing out. So what’s Esparza’s path to victory? And why is Namajunas at -200? She should be much heavier than that. I don’t see anyway Esparza wins this fight. And my grading her striking as a 65 is generous. The tool could be a 60. I’m very confident in Namajunas not only getting it done, but making it look easy.

Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Namajunas -325

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chandler

Tony Ferguson
Age: 38
UFC Record: 18-4
Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Michael Chandler
Age: 35
Pro Record: 22-6
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out Dan Hooker, a well rounded 14-1 fighter, and a 14-3 grappler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Absolutely fascinating fight, particularly from the Ferguson side. I did a deep dive on Ferguson to make sure my grades are as accurate as possible. All the way back to 2016, Ferguson out struck 65 striker Rafael dos Anjos by over a 2 to 1 clip. Showing 75 striking. I’ll skip the Lee fight as that one is hard to grade with Lee emptying the gas tank the first couple rounds and then running out of gas. Ferguson then out strikes 65 strikers Pettis and Cerrone by a 2 to 1 clip. Still showing 75 striking. And that brings us to the Gaethje fight. And yes, Ferguson took tremendous damage and the final moments of that fight look bad, but the striking was close to equal. The main difference is that Gaethje landed the more damaging shots and amazingly Gaethje’s cardio proved to be superior to Ferguson’s. Both guys showed 75 striking. Then there was the Oliveira and Dariush fights. I have Oliveira with 70 striking, and the exchanges were close to equal. And there was virtually no striking in the Dariush fight. Ferguson lost both from being taken down. So clearly, Ferguson’s grappling is now a 65. But his striking is hard to pin down. Does the 75 striking make another appearance? Or will Ferguson never be the same after the damage he took in the Gaethje fight? I have his striking graded conservatively as a 70 for now, but it very well could be a 75. And even though Chandler lost his last fight to Gaethje, he showed a lot. Showed his chin can hold up. And showed despite the muscle mass, he’s got great cardio. Ferguson’s not going to be able to use pace and pressure to win here, especially in 3 rounds. Now look, do I think Chandler should be the favorite to win here? Yeah. I think a fair price would be Chandler around -150, but the line has opened with Chandler at -400 and that’s just crazy. Even more crazy is that most of the money is coming in on the Chandler side. Currently Ferguson is +315 and there’s a decent chance he could get up as high as +350 and maybe even +400. And that’s going to be too tempting for me to pass up. Because I do see a legit path for Ferguson winning and that’s Ferguson having better striking. Also, people said Ferguson might have come back too soon from the Gaethje fight. He took 7 months off, then fought Oliveira. Well guess what, Chandler took tons of damage from Gaethje and it’s only been 6 months since that fight. Meanwhile Ferguson took a nice 1 year break after losing to Dariush. I think Ferguson has a 45% chance of winning here and love the value on him.

Chris’ Pick: Ferguson by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Chandler -150

Shogun Rua vs Ovince St Preux

Shogun Rua
Age: 40
UFC Record: 11-10-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by Ovince St. Preux. Submitted by Chael Sonnen.
Key Wins: Knocked out Tyson Pedro. Split decisions over Corey Anderson in 2016 and Lil’ Nog.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Ovince St Preux
Age: 38
UFC Record: 13-9 at light heavyweight. 13-11 overall.
Key Losses: Split decision losses to Ben Rothwell and Volkan Oezdemir.
Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Corey Anderson, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Tyson Pedro, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, and Yushin Okami.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Despite losing 3 of his last 4 fights and losing 5 of his last 7 fights, he’s actually looked pretty good. And let’s look at who he’s lost to: 2 quality heavyweights in Tanner Boser and Ben Rothwell. Got knocked out by rising contender Jamahal Hill. No shame there. Also lost to Nikita Krylov and Dominick Reyes. But he OSP has a quality submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk and knocked out a quality prospect in Alonzo Menifield. So St Preux’s skills have gone nowhere. His striking with Hill was equal in the 1st with Hill. And his striking with Menifield was close to equal too, showing 65 striking. I can’t say the same about Shogun. It’s hard to grade his striking as a 60, but it’s hard to say the data is lying. I’m confident that Paul Craig’s striking is a 65 now. And Craig did out strike Shogun. That did happen. Shogun is now 40 years old and hasn’t fought in a year and a half. St Preux has been active and showing he can still compete with the best. Line just came out and St Preux is only -185. Solid value there in my opinion.

Chris’ Pick: St Preux by 2nd knockout.

What I think the odds should be: St Preux -325

Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon

Donald Cerrone
Age: 38
UFC Record: 23-13
Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza. Knocked out Alexander Hernandez. Beat Al Iaquinta, Eddie Alvarez, and Ben Henderson.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: above average (60)

Joe Lauzon
Age: 37
UFC Record: 15-12
Key Losses: Knocked out by Clay Guida. Majority decision loss to Steven Ray.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jonathan Pearce.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Lauzon’s last fight, he blitzed Pearce, knocked him out in less than 2 minutes. That’s great. Maybe he’s still got it. But look at the fight before that. He did the exact same thing with Chris Greutzemacher. Blitzed him. Looked great in the 1st round. But was completely gassed out by the 2nd round and Greutzemacher battered him. Couldn’t take Greutzemacher down. That makes me downgrade him to well rounded 55 tools. And Cerrone is a good opponent for him because Cowboy is really regressing too. No shame in getting knocked out by Connor McGregor or beat by Anthony Pettis. But Niko Price has proven to have just 60 striking and he out landed Cerrone 129 to 101. Then Cerrone took on 65 striker Alex Morono and Morono out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. I haven’t seen much of Cerrone’s grappling. I left it as a 60 for now, but it could be a 55. Decent chance Lauzon thinks his best way to win is blitz Cerrone like Morono did. Decent chance it works. But Cerrone has had a year for his body to heal. I think he’ll be durable enough to withstand the 1st round and then win the 2nd and 3rd. But no way am I going to bet this because Lauzon hasn’t fought in almost 3 years and he is coming off a win, so it’s really hard to predict what we’re going to get from him.

Chris’ Pick: Cerrone by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Cerrone -125

Khaos Williams vs Randy Brown

Khaos Williams
Age: 27
Pro Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Randy Brown
Age: 31
UFC Record: 8-4
Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Mickey Gall.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Grappling: above average (60)

Andre Fialho is making me question whether Williams’ striking is really a 65 grade. I used to be confident Baeza had 65 striking. So after Williams knocked Baeza out, with the striking in the fight being close to equal at that point, I thought Williams had just improved and elevated the tool to a 65. But then Fialho comes along last week and knocks Baeza out in the 1st round. I had Fialho with 60 striking going into the fight. So. Does Fialho, Baeza, and Williams all have 65 striking? Or did I grade Williams and Fialho correctly and Baeza’s striking is not as good as I thought as a 60? I’m not sure. I’m going to keep Williams’ striking and power as a 65 for now, but it could be a 60. And for that reason, I’m going to pick Brown who’s more of a sure thing. I’m confident his 65 striking is legit. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Williams won.

Chris’ Pick: Brown by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Brown -125

Francisco Trinaldo vs Danny Roberts

Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 43
UFC Record: 17-7
Key Losses: Lost to James Vick.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert, Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat John Makdessi and Bobby Green. Split decision over Dwight Grant.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Danny Roberts
Age: 34
UFC Record: 7-4
Key Losses: Knocked out by Mike Perry and Michel Pereira.
Key Wins: Split decision wins over Ramazan Emeev and David Zawada.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Amazingly, Trinaldo really hasn’t regressed much in the past few years. Despite now being 43 years old and having 24 UFC fights. And I have to pick fights based off the skills fighters have now vs trying to project whether they show up better or worse than last time. Roberts surprisingly has shown his wrestling has now surpassed his striking. I was really surprised he did as well as he did against Emeev, being able to get back up when taken down. Stuffing some take downs. But Emeev still out struck him. Which leads me to pointing out I thought Emeev won the fight. Trinaldo is similar to Emeev, although Trinaldo’s wrestling is a slight tier below. I’m picking Trinaldo to win but I’m not going to bet it because Roberts has more power and could knock him out.

Chris’ Pick: Trinaldo by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Trinaldo -135

Norma Dumont vs Macy Chiasson

Norma Dumont
Age: 31
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Beat Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Macy Chiasson
Age: 30
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chiasson has to be given a lot of credit for improving her wrestling. I know Raquel Pennington has 65 wrestling and Chiasson was able to show she was Pennington’s equal there. So she’s come a long way there and the wrestling shouldn’t really determine the fight. Instead, it’s going to be Dumont’s volume and cardio vs Chiasson’s power. Dumont showed off legit, unquestionable 70 striking in her last fight with Ladd. It was a bit of a weird fight in that Ladd seemed gun shy and not wanting to throw much, but you have to give Dumont some credit too. Chiasson’s striking has seemingly plateaued. I’ve had it at 65 for a couple years now. It’s possible she comes in improved. She will have more power. But volume usually beats power when it goes to the judges score cards.

Chris’ Pick: Dumont by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Dumont -175

Brandon Royval vs Matt Schnell

Brandon Royval
Age: 29
Pro Record: 13-6
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Submitted Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Rogerio Bontorin.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Matt Schnell
Age: 32
UFC Record: 6-4 at 125 lbs.
Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: near plus (65)

I know Royval has 70 striking. That’s not the problem here. The reason why this could be a tricky fight to pick is because of Schnell and Bontorin. Look at Royval’s last fight. Striking with Bontorin was close to equal. So it would appear Bontorin has 70 striking now. But who did Bontorin fight before that? Schnell. And the striking in Bontorin vs Schnell was close to equal? So does Schnell have 70 striking? Let’s look deeper. Before Bontorin, Schnell fought 60 striker Nam. Slightly out landed him. Showed 65 striking. Before that, Schnell took on 70 striker Alexandre Pantoja. And Pantoja out struck by a little bit. So Schnell clearly went into the Bontorin fight with 65 striking. Let’s look at Bontorin. Before the Schnell fight, he took on 70 striker Kai Kara France and Kara France out struck him 11 to 5. So Bontorin also had 65 striking going into the Schnell fight. But look, after the Schnell fight, it was 8 months until Bontorin fought again against Royval. Very possible he improved his striking to a 70 during that time. That should solve it. And with Royval, I had to finally down grade his grappling to a 65. I had it as a 70 after he submitted Kara France. But after that, grappling led to him losing to Brandon Moreno, Pantoja, and Bontorin was out grappling Royval until he gassed out and Royval took over. So now that we have a clear view of where these guys are at, you can see that Royval will have a monster power advantage. No threat of Schnell taking him down. Line hasn’t come out yet, but I think it’ll be close to a pick em, but I see solid value in Royval.

Chris’ Pick: Royval by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Royval -250

Blagoi Ivanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blagoi Ivanov
Age: 35
UFC Record: 2-3
Key Losses: Split decision losses to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis.
Key Wins: Beat Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Age: 36
UFC Record: 4-2 at heavyweight. 8-5 in the UFC overall.
Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ben Rothwell. Beat Maurice Greene and Adam Wieczorek.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Interesting fight because we really don’t know where Rogerio de Lima’s striking is at. His last fight, he blasted Rothwell out in 32 seconds. Before that, he showed off new found 65 wrestling, dominating Greene on the ground all fight. Only threw 10 strikes all fight. This was 2021 still. Before that, got taken down and submitted in the 1st round by Alexandr Romanov. That was probably the catalyst for Rogerio de Lima to get better on the ground. Before that, he took on prospect Ben Sosoli, blasted him out in less than 2 minutes. We’re now going to 2019, his fight with Stefan Struve, he took Struve down and was in top control most of the fight, before he got submitted. Rogerio de Lima only threw 6 strikes all fight. Then before that, in 2018, he takes on prospect Adam Wieczorek. Rogerio de Lima dominated most of the fight in top control, but did out land 16 to 7, in the whole fight. So what’s my point? Rogerio de Lima is clearly an improved fighter at heavyweight, but we haven’t seen him strike for an extended period of time. My best educated guess is that the tool is a 65, but it could be as high as a 70. And it’s also possible, with how he sells out for power, he can only strike for 1 round before gassing out. Which could make the tools as low as a 60 grade. Ivanov more than likely has 70 striking. His striking with Augusto Sakai was close to equal. Then after, Sakai fought Alistair Overeem and Sakai out struck him 62 to 28. So Sakai for sure has 70 striking. I also know Ivanov is very durable. Has never been knocked out in 22 pro fights. And absorbed punches from Derrick Lewis, without getting knocked out. So the fight is a near coin flip for me. I think the story of the fight will be Ivanov getting pummeled in the 1st round, but I think he survives and starts to take over in the 2nd round with better cardio.

Chris’ Pick: Ivanov by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ivanov -125

Andre Fialho vs Cameron VanCamp

Andre Fialho
Age: 28
Pro Record: 15-4
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Cameron VanCamp
Age: 29
Pro Record: 15-5
Key Losses: Lost to a 32-13 striker.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
Striking: average (50)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Is VanCamp’s striking a 50 or 55? Or does it even matter? All respect to VanCamp, but he’s not in the same league as Fialho’s last opponent Baeza. This fight was put together on less than 2 weeks notice. Fialho was a trendy pick to upset 65 striker Baeza and indeed he did. Striking was close to equal in the fight. So I’m very confident in grading Fialho’s striking a 65. And even if VanCamp’s grappling is more like a 60, it won’t matter, he still won’t be able to get Fialho to the ground. I think anything under -500 for Fialho is great value.

Chris’ Pick: Fialho by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Fialho -500

Tracy Cortez vs Melissa Gatto

Tracy Cortez
Age: 28
Pro Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Beat Mariya Agapova and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Melissa Gatto
Age: 25
Pro Record: 8-0-2
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa. Knocked out Victoria Leonardo.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Two elite prospects here. I wasn’t sure before, but I do know now that Gatto does indeed have 60 power with the way she folded Eubanks with a body shot. And that power she has will be the biggest differentiator in the fight. I think Gatto might allow Cortez to take her down, work her submission game. That’s what she did with Eubanks, was fine working off her back in the 1st round. Same thing happened in the 2nd round until Gatto decided to sweep Eubanks and stayed in control for the rest of the round. I’m also less confident Cortez’s wrestling is a 65. It could be a 60 with how she barely edged out Kish by split decision. However I do have to give Cortez credit for improving her striking to a 60, albeit with 50 power. I think Gatto’s strikes doing more damage is what gets her a close decision.

Chris’ Pick: Gatto by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Gatto -135

Kleydson Rodrigues vs CJ Vergara

Kleydson Rodrigues
Age: 26
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Grappling: average (50)

CJ Vergara
Age: 30
Pro Record: 9-3-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Vergara was impressive in his last fight with Ode Osbourne. He lost, but striking was close to equal and showed the tool is a 60. No shame there as Osbourne recently elevated his striking to a 60, really close to a 65 with how his striking was about equal with Manel Kape. But unfortunately for Vergara, he draws an even tougher assignment in Rodrigues. Going into The Contender, Rodrigues was matched up with Santo Curatolo. Line was close to a pick em. Lots of smart people were picking Curatolo. I picked Curatolo. But the fight ended up being very lopsided. Rodrigues ended up out landing Curatolo 73 to 17. Landslide. I had Curatolo with 55 striking at the time. It’s probably more like a 50, with me being confident in grading Rodrigues’ striking tool a 65. I think Rodrigues stand up is a slight tier above Vergara.

Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -175

Lupita Godinez vs Arianne Carnelossi

Lupita Godinez
Age: 28
Pro Record: 7-2
UFC Record: 2-1 at 115 lbs. 2-2 overall
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Beat Loma Lookboonmee. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Ariane Carnelossi
Age: 29
Pro Record: 14-2
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Na Liang and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Istela Nunes.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

This is probably one of Godinez’s longer camps as most of her UFC fights have been on short notice. Her cardio should be even better than we’ve seen. And I see this as a similar fight to how Godinez vs Lookboonmee went. Carnelossi does have big power for the division, but that won’t matter if she’s getting taken down repeatedly.

Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Godinez -225

Journey Newson vs Fernando Garcia

Journey Newson
Age: 33
Pro Record: 9-3
UFC Record: 0-2
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
Grappling: average (50)

Fernando Garcia
Age: 29
Pro Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
Striking: average (50)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: average (50)

Ok, so I might be wrong on grading Garcia’s wrestling a 50. That’s what I had it going into his Contender fight. And it lasted about 2 minutes so we really didn’t get to see much of it. I had his opponent Joshua Weems with 50 grappling. Garcia did stuff a take down. Maybe Garcia’s wrestling is a 55. But I’m confident his striking is a 50. I had Weems with 45 striking. And I was wrong about him. Because although Garcia did get the KO, Weems was out striking Garcia 2 to 1 up to that point. Small sample, but history shows that strikes landed is a better measuring stick of the tool vs knockouts. And there’s no way Weems has 60 striking. I can’t be that wrong haha. Newson hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. I know his wrestling is a 60 with how he was able to get back up after taken down by Ricado Ramos. And his striking might be a 60 but at the very least is a 55 which is where I have him graded for now. Only path to victory I see for Garcia is him weathering the 1st round Newson storm and waiting for Newson to gas out. Which could happen. But aside from that, Newson has 2 legit paths to win here.

Chris’ Pick: Newson by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Newson -350

Oliveira vs Gaethje, Namajunas vs Esparza, Ferguson vs Chandler Fight Picks – UFC 274 – May 7, 2022