Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez
- Brian Ortega
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar. Beat The Korean Zombie.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Yair Rodriguez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Andre Fili. Beat Jeremy Stephens. Split decision over Alex Caceres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The line for Holloway vs Rodriguez closed with Holloway at -650. But it was close. The striking was close to equal in the 1st and 3rd rounds. But Holloway did out strike Rodriguez in 3 of the 5 rounds. Now, with the way Holloway had racked up strikes on Calvin Kattar, I thought Holloway had elevated his striking to a top of the scale 80 grade. I thought Rodriguez had elevated his striking to a 75. But after watching the third Holloway vs Volkanovski fight, it’s now apparent that Holloway’s striking is a 75 after all and Rodriguez’s striking is a 70. I also had thought Ortega’s striking could be close to an 80 after what he did to Korean Zombie, but again, after seeing Ortega against Volkanovski, I’m grading it a 75. So Ortega’s striking should be able to beat Rodriguez on the feet. And there’s also that added bonus of Ortega possibly getting a couple take downs where he’d have his best chance of ending the fight, getting a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Ortega by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ortega -250
Michelle Waterson vs Amanda Lemos
- Michelle Waterson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I don’t care that Lemos lost. It was a fluky loss. Standing triangle choke. Those never happen. What I do care about, albeit a small sample, pretty close to one round, is that Lemos out struck Andrade 7 to 3. Yes, small sample, but early on, it looked like Andrade was in trouble. The leg kicks Lemos landed were heavy. And I’m confident Andrade is a 70 striker. Now, I’m not going to say Lemos is a better striker than Andrade, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable to conclude Lemos’ striking has improved to a 70 to be on the same level. Waterson looked pretty good in her last fight too with Marina Rodriguez. And Rodriguez did out strike her but it wasn’t a total wipeout. Waterson does indeed have 65 striking. But the problem for her is that Lemos will have a monster power advantage. And after seeing Angela Hill vs Virna Jandiroba, it appears that Hill has elevated her wrestling to a 65. Which means that Lemos’ wrestling is a 65 too. Waterson is coming off a career threatening injury. I think Lemos’ power and damage will be too much.
Chris’ Pick: Lemos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lemos -300
Jingliang Li vs Muslim Salikhov
- Jingliang Li
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio, Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Francisco Trinaldo, Laureano Staropoli, and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
It’s hard to know where Jingliang’s striking is at. I’m confident it’s at least a 65. Then he fought Ponzinibbio (in his return fight). Out struck Ponzinibbio by a 2 to 1 clip and knocked him out in the 1st round. And I have Ponzinibbio’s striking as maybe a 70, but at least a 65. So has Jingliang’s striking taken another step to a 70 grade? I’m not sure. After that, he got taken down and mauled by Khamzat Chimaev. Salikhov is also tough to grade. His striking was close to equal with 65 striker Zaleski dos Santos. But then his last fight against 60 striker Trinaldo, the striking was almost, close to equal. It was close. And I know Trinaldo doesn’t have 65 striking all of a sudden. So is Salikhov regressing at 37 years old, plus having a hard time avoiding injuries? It’s possible. And it’s the reason I’m picking Jingliang, although this could still be a razor close fight.
Chris’ Pick: Jingliang by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jingliang -150
Matt Schnell vs Su Mudaerji
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-5 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Su Mudaerji
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Malcolm Gordon, a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Zarrukh Adashev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Su came into his fight with Adashev as a -500 favorite, but that had more to do with the market under rating Adashev. I’m still confident Su has 65 striking and power. But he could have some problems with Schnell. For starters, Schnell finally proved to me that his striking is indeed a 70. I wasn’t sure after he fought Bontorin, but the striking with him and Royval was close to equal. That said, Schnell has two legit ways to win, he could definitely catch Su in a submission on the ground. But Schnell is far from a lock as I think Su has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Schnell by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Schnell -200
Shane Burgos vs Charles Jourdain
- Shane Burgos
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marwan Amirkhani and Charles Rosa. Beat Billy Quarantillo. Split decision over Cub Swanson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Andre Ewell.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m not too sure if Jourdain’s grappling is a 60. I had it as a 55 going into his fight with Vannata. But he showed improved grappling and got a 1st round submission so I’m going to cautiously upgrade the tool to a 60. As you’ll read below when I talk about Billy Quarantillo’s fight with Burgos, I had Burgos with 70 striking. But it was a shaky grade coming off his fight with Edson Barboza where the striking was close but not equal, with Barboza landing more. The fight with Billy Q proved Burgos’ striking is still just a 65 as he’s hit a plateau, regardless of the win. I’ve never seen Burgos use his wrestling on offense. And it’s possible it’s a 60. I like Jourdain here because he should have a power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jourdain -125
Miesha Tate vs Lauren Murphy
- Miesha Tate
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Holly Holm. Knocked out Marion Reneau. Majority decision over Sara McMann.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Lauren Murphy
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 125 lbs. 6-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Joanne Wood, Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I almost graded Tate’s striking a 70. What makes it hard to figure out is the improved striking display Vieira put on against Holly Holm. I wasn’t the only one who had Vieira’s striking a 65 going into that fight. Holm was a big favorite. Line closed with Holm around -350. But Vieira elevated her striking that night to a 70 grade. Which then begs the question, did Vieira have the 70 striking her last fight before Holm when she was in the octagon with Tate? It’s possible, I’d say more likely not. Tate’s first fight back from retirement, she took on 60 striker Reneau. And Tate only showed 65 striking. Not too much to take out from Murphy’s fight with Shevchenko. Valentina really shut her out which makes me think the fight had more to do with Murphy not being ready for the moment. A better assessment of Murphy’s skills can be seen in her win over Wood. Close fight, but I give Tate the edge because her striking could be a 70 and her wrestling is slightly better.
Chris’ Pick: Tate by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tate -150
Punahele Soriano vs Dalcha Lungiambula
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dalcha Lungiambula
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 16-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I have to change my pick here based on new information. I’ve been so convinced that Brendan Allen has had 65 striking. But I really started to question that after he fought Sam Alvey and the striking was close to equal. Then Allen fought Jacob Malkoun and the striking was close to equal there too and no way Malkoun has 65 striking. So I’m now convinced Allen’s striking is a 60 and he out struck Soriano. I looked back on Soriano’s previous fights to confirm, like Soriano beating 55 striker Jamie Pickett, where the striking was close to equal, so yeah, I have to change Soriano’s grade to a 55. I also have to upgrade Lungiambula’s power to a 60. He has 11 pro wins and only 5 knockouts. But I’ve realized Dalcha’s strategy is to hunt the KO early, but if he doesn’t get it and starts to get tired, he uses his wrestling to win the fight. Lungiambula does have a KO win in the UFC. And he came really close to knocking Cody Brundage out. He was beating Brundage up in the clinch. Ref was close to stepping in to stop the fight. Lungiambula was going hard, started to get tired. Tried to take Brundage down and got caught in a guillotine. Chokes like that are like flash knockouts. They happen sometimes. And Lungiambula doesn’t have the best cardio, but he’s now matched up against someone in Soriano who doesn’t have great cardio either. I see Dalcha doing enough damage and landing more to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Lungiambula by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lungiambula -200
Ricky Simon vs Jack Shore
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Jack Shore
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 16-0
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Timur Valiev and Liudvik Sholinian. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Simon was supremely impressive against Assuncao. Yes, knocked him out. But the thing that was the most impressive was how he took Assuncao down, controlled him, and didn’t get anywhere near any Assuncao submission attacks. Maybe Assuncao’s grappling has regressed to a 65, but for that type of dominance, I have no choice but to grade Simon’s wrestling a 75. I know that Assuncao’s grappling is still at least a 65. Meanwhile Shore wasn’t as impressive. Yes, his fight with Valiev was entertaining, but it was really close. The back and forth grappling showed his grappling tool is a 65. And I upgraded his striking to a 65, as his striking with 65 striker Valiev was close to equal. I really like Simon here. If Valiev was able to take Shore down, Simon will too. Except Simon has the cardio to put on an insane pace all fight and will probably control him almost the whole fight.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Simon -200
Herbert Burns vs Bill Algeo
- Herbert Burns
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr. Submitted Evan Dunham, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker. Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 27-8 grappler. Beat Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Algeo played a risky game with Brito. Thought he’d win with his cardio, putting on a heavy pace, betting that Brito would slow down. But he didn’t. Striking was close to equal. I thought Brito landed with more damage. Control time in the grappling was 5:02 to 4:54, nearly equal. I thought Brito won the fight but the judges gave it to Algeo. Burns last fight was close to 2 years ago and a bit of a head scratcher. Burns missed weight by 3 lbs. Took on Daniel Pineda. Who’s good. He has well rounded 60 tools. But Pineda dominated Burns in the grappling and Burns gassed out quickly. So who knows what happened there. But I’m willing to throw that fight out and keep his grades the same based on what I saw Burns do to Landwehr and Dunham. Burns has a couple slight edges against Algeo. He’s got fight ending grappling. Probably could get a couple take downs, at least. And I also think he has more power than Algeo. But if there’s no knockout or no submission, the striking could be close and who knows what the judges would do with it.
Chris’ Pick: Burns by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Burns -175
Dustin Jacoby vs Da Un Jung
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-0-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Da Un Jung
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Jung has proven on multiple occasions that his 65 striking is real. He went, literally toe to toe with Nzechukwu for a round. Got the KO. But also showed he out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. So the knockout wasn’t of the fluky variety. Jacoby’s last win over Oleksiejczyk was really close, but did show improved wrestling by mixing in a couple take downs. But I like Jung here because he has more power, has a wrestling advantage, and should have the cardio to not slow down.
Chris’ Pick: Jung by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jung -175
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Dwight Grant
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 10-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Dwight Grant
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlo Pedersoli. Split decision wins over Alan Jouban and a well rounded 12-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Stoltzfus might be 1-3 in the UFC and might have lost his last fight to Gerald Meerschaert. But regardless of those two things, I was really impressed. He showed up way, way improved. Stoltzfus was able to out wrestle Meerschaert most of the fight. Avoided the submission attempts most of the fight until towards the end of the 3rd when Stoltzfus was probably out of gas, Meerschaert got the choke. It’s possible Stoltzfus’ wrestling is a 70, but I’m going the conservative route and grading it a 65. Grant really hasn’t shown much improvement. He’s a decent fighter, but Stoltzfus’ wrestling will be too much for him.
Chris’ Pick: Stoltzfus by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stoltzfus -225
Jessica Penne vs Emily Ducote
- Jessica Penne
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decisions over Lupita Godinez and Randa Markos
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Emily Ducote
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-6
- Key Losses: split decision loss to Kanako Murata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler and a 10-2 striker. Submitted a well round 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ducote looks like a pretty good prospect. She took on a potential contender in the division in Murata and did well, lost a close split decision. Since then, she’s improved her striking and has possibly unlocked more power. Penne might be 39 years old but she still has skills. Took on rising contender Loopy Godinez and showed near equal striking and grappling. Close fight, but I think Ducote is the right pick. She’s 11 years younger, is on the way up, and there’s always the chance that Penne could start regressing.
Chris’ Pick: Ducote by split decision
What I think the odds should be: Ducote -125