Thomas Paull vs Esteban Ribovics
- Thomas Paull
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-5 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: fringe average (45)
- Esteban Ribovics
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I watched Paull take on a 13-5 grappler and I wasn’t that impressed. And it was Paull’s second to last fight, October of last year. I thought Paull’s opponent had 50 grappling going in, but he took Paull down and had no problem controlling him on the ground. Paull clearly lost the first two rounds. But then at the start of the 3rd round, he hurt the grappler and was able to knock him out, so I do have to applaud his ability to overcome adversity. But Paull’s wrestling is definitely a 45. He’s a one dimensional striker. Ribovics’ last couple fights both lasted less than 30 seconds. Non existent sample size. Three fights ago, he took on a 21-6 grappler who I thought had 50 striking and grappling. Ribovics affirmed the tools I thought he had. Won the grappling battles. Out classed his opponent on the feet. Superior cardio. I really like Robovics here because of the gaping hole I see in Paull’s wrestling. I know Ribovics can grapple. Look for him to get the fight on the ground quick.
Chris’ Pick: Ribovics by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Ribovics -250
Claudio Ribeiro vs Ivan Valenzuela
- Claudio Ribeiro
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: fringe average (45)
- Ivan Valenzuela
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Ribeiro has 9 pro wins and 8 of them are by KO. He’s got 55 striking. But in his last fight with a 24-19 wrestler, he showed holes in his wrestling. Going into the fight, I thought Ribeiro’s opponent had 45 wrestling. Maybe at absolute best it’s a 50. Well, Ribeiro struggled. He got trapped in the clinch on the fence for about half the fight. For other chunks of time Ribeiro was taken down. The only reason Ribeiro won that fight is because the wrestler gassed out and wasn’t able to take Ribeiro down anymore. And guys, it was a 5 round fight. Had it been 3 rounds, Ribeiro might have lost. Valenzuela on other hand took on a 9-4 grappler two fights ago. I think Valenzuela’s opponent had 50 grappling. And Valenzuela made it look like he was in the wrong weight class. Dumped him down. Was in the opponent’s guard. But it didn’t matter as he dropped vicious ground and pound. Valenzuela got the KO in less than 2 minutes. That is what’s going to happen here. If Ribeiro thought he had problems with a 24-19 wrestler, wait until he steps in with Valenzuela.
Chris’ Pick: Vanlenzuela by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Valenzuela -300
Hailey Cowan vs Claudia Leite
- Hailey Cowan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-2 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Claudia Leite
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Cowan took on a 1-2 fighter. Was a big -450 favorite. Was using her wrestling to take down and control her opponent in the 1st round who probably had 45 wrestling. But then Cowan wasn’t doing as well on the feet, got clipped, found herself in a guillotine, then tapped. I was really underwhelmed by her striking, so much so, that it’s possible her striking tool could be a 45, but I’m keeping it as a 50 for now. Leite was a lot more impressive when I saw her against a 4-2 grappler who I’m pretty sure had 50 grappling. Leite was able to take her down and control her for 5 rounds. I didn’t see as much of the stand up, but 4 of her 8 wins have come by KO which is pretty good. I think Leite should cruise here. Her wrestling is better, but I think she wins because of her striking. Like if Cowan struggled just two fights ago with a 1-2 fighter, how is she going to do against Leite?
Chris’ Pick: Leite by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Leite -275
Jack Cartwright vs Jose Johnson
- Jack Cartwright
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 12-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jose Johnson
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-1 grappler. Lost to a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a 4-1 wrestler, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Johnson’s fight with Ronnie Lawrence on the Contender tells me all I need to know about how good Johnson is. Lawrence has had 3 fights in the UFC since the Contender and I know he has 60 striking and 65 wrestling. Well, Johnson was able to get up after most of Lawrence’s take downs. And when the fight was on the feet, striking was close to equal. So I have Johnson with well rounded 60 tools. I watched Cartwright take on a 12-2 grappler who I thought had 50 striking. And Cartwright got the 1st round KO, which is shiny and everybody loves those, but before that, Cartwright was just doing okay in the striking. He was out landing his opponent, but not blowing him out. So Cartwright’s striking is a 55 for me. I was more impressed when I saw him go against a well rounded 9-2 fighter who I thought had 50 wrestling. And Cartwright did show dominance. Took the opponent down and controlled him on the ground until he was able to pass guard, take the back, and get the choke. 60 grappling. This is a really good fight between two guys that are UFC caliber in my opinion. But Johnson should win here. I know how good Lawrence is. Look for Johnson to have better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -200
Nazim Sadykhov vs Ahmad Hasanzada
- Nazim Sadykhov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Ahmad Hasanzada
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: fringe average (45)
I watched Hasanzada take on a 4-0 wrestler who I thought had 55 wrestling. And Hasanzada would get taken down easily and not be able to get back up. But I really liked his striking and graded it a 55. As for Sadykhov, the quick finishes are nice but don’t provide enough of a sample size. I thought the best measuring stick of his tools was his third fight ago against a 1-0-1 fighter. And I thought the opponent had 50 wrestling at best. And I’ll say I was a bit underwhelmed with Sadykhov. The wrestling in that fight was close to equal so I’m downgrading that tool to a 50. So I think Sadykhov might get a couple take downs, but he won’t be able to keep him on the ground for too long. Hasanzada is tall for the weight class, has long reach. I think his striking gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Hasanzada by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hasanzada -135