
Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
- Nate Diaz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-5 at 170 lbs. 14-6 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Conor McGregor. Beat Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Tony Ferguson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 18-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I know Edwards has 75 striking. He proved it by out striking Belal Muhammad. And Edwards’ shots landed with 75 striker Kamaru Usman were close to equal. How did Diaz do against Edwards on the feet? Strikes landed were close to equal. Hmmm. So does that mean Diaz’s striking is a 75 or did Edwards fight outside his game plan, not respecting Diaz. I think it’s more of the latter. And Edwards also proved he had 75 wrestling in the Usman fight, before he gassed out in the high altitude. How did Diaz do? He got taken down a few times and got back up, but that had more to do with Edwards backing away and letting him up. He probably could have controlled Diaz on the ground if he wanted to. So Diaz’s grappling is a 65. With Ferguson, if we’re looking at his skills on paper, he still has 70 striking. Michael Chandler was a -300 favorite. He shouldn’t have been. On the feet, the striking was close. Chandler got a take down in the 1st round, Tony was more interested in going for submissions than standing back up. Ferguson did okay. Then he got knocked out. I think at 38 years of age, the weight cut to 155 lbs is too much on his body and his chin can’t hold up anymore. It’s possible he could be more durable at a bigger weight class. But the great thing for Ferguson in this fight is he’s not facing the two big threats that’s put him on this losing streak. Diaz won’t try and wouldn’t be able to grapple him. And Diaz doesn’t have KO power. Should be a fun fight, but I think Ferguson has more power and that should help him win the decision.
Chris’ Pick: Ferguson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ferguson -135
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland
- Khamzat Chimaev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jingliang Li. Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Gilbert Burns.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 170 lbs. 11-4 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Holland is really starting to come into his own at 170 lbs. More focus in the cage. His grappling is more effective because he’s bigger and stronger at the smaller weight class. And I have to give Means a lot of credit. After further examination, Means does have 65 wrestling. Turns out Nicolas Dalby has 60 wrestling. Means controlled Dalby most of their fight. Means does have 65 wrestling. Well, Means got Holland down a couple times but Holland bounced right back up, then caught Means in a brabo choke when he was hurt from a strike. Holland also out struck Means by a 2 to 1 clip in the 1st round. Chimaev did prove he’s the real deal in narrowly besting Burns. Turns out his striking is indeed a 70 as the striking was close to equal. And the wrestling was a wash too. Chimaev got a couple take downs but wasn’t able to keep Burns down long, so Khamzat’s wrestling tool is a 70 for me. I don’t know what the line for this fight is yet, but I think Holland will have a lot of underdog value. The market probably still has visions of Holland being taken down and controlled by the likes of Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson. But those are legit middleweights. Chimaev is a welterweight. It’s very possible that Holland’s wrestling could be a 70. And my educated guess as to why Chimaev missed weight is because he didn’t respect Nate Diaz as an opponent. Might not have trained hard. Had a bad cut. He’s not going to have the cardio to go 5 round. I think Holland has close to a 50% chance of winning so if he’s anywhere near +200, that’s solid value.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 4th round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Chimaev -150
Li Jingliang vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Jingliang Li
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Muslim Salikhov, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
It’s hard to know exactly how much Rodriguez has leveled up, but we know he has at least a bit. His last fight with Lee, the line close with Lee as a -150 favorite. Which means they thought the striking would be close, but Lee would have a wrestling edge. And he did. But Lee’s cardio fell apart in the 2nd round and Rodriguez started stuffing take downs and taking over in the striking exchanges. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, Rodriguez out struck Lee by more than a 2 to 1 clip. I actually had Rodriguez’s striking as a 60 going into the fight. I doubt the striking tool has gone all the way up to a 70, but I think 65 is the right grade for now. Jingliang vs Salikhov was exactly what I thought it was going to be. A kickboxing bout. They traded. It was close. And it so happened that Jingliang landed a KO blow. But that fight really could’ve gone either way. Should be a close fight here. Just because Rodriguez weighed in 9 lbs heavier doesn’t mean he’ll have that huge an advantage. Both normally fight at 170 lbs. I think the striking could go either way. Rodriguez might be able to mix in a few take downs. I think the take downs and possibly bigger size.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -175
Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yana Kunitskaya and Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau. Split decision over Norma Dumont.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chiasson finally took that jump we were all waiting for. I thought she was lackluster and flat in the Raquel Pennington loss. But her wrestling took a big step forward in being able to take down and control a 65 wrestler in Dumont. I don’t care one of the judges thought Dumont won the fight. Even though striking was close to equal, that was the best version of Chiasson we’ve seen yet. And yes, Aldana got out classed by Holly Holm. But in her last fight with 70 striker Kunitskaya, her striking leveled up to a 70. We already knew Aldana had more power than Yana, but the striking turned out to be close to equal before Aldana dropped her and then finished the fight. Chiasson could present some challenges with her strength and newfound 70 wrestling. But ultimately, I think this fight is won or lost on the feet. Close to a coin flip but I have more confidence in Aldana’s striking being a 70 than Chiasson’s.
Chris’ Pick: Aldana by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aldana -125
Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-6-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I still believe in Walker’s striking as a 70 tool. Despite the KO loss to Jamahal Hill, Walker was out landing him 12 to 5 up to that point. But. Walker has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, so he really needs a win here. Cutelaba learned in his last fight with Ryan Spann about the danger of going to the ground with a grappler when you don’t really have any grappling. But his wrestling has improved big time. Before the Spann fight, he actually out wrestled Devin Clark for 3 rounds, with his cardio holding up the whole way. And with the way Cutelaba got some take downs on Spann, I’m going to go out on a limb to grade Cutelaba’s wrestling a 70, although it’s possible it could be a 65. Very strong chance we see more Cutelaba wrestling in this fight as Walker will be the most dangerous on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Cutelaba -175
Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Danny Henry.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Trizano. Split decisions over Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Charles Jourdain and Sean Woodson. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
MMA is a crazy sport. Despite Peterson being in the game since 2010 with 29 pro fights, he’s still getting better and he gave Erosa a run for his money. Peterson improved his striking and wrestling to 60 grades, Erosa wasn’t able to keep him down, and on the feet, it was close, with Erosa edging it out. But I’ve seen Erosa so many times now, especially with how well his submission win over Jourdain is aging, that I know Erosa’s skills are legit. The Dawodu vs Trizano fight played out exactly how I thought it would. Trizano only has 60 striking. Dawodu out struck him by a 2 to 2 clip. Dawodu even got some control time in showing superior clinch work. This will be a fun stand up fight that could go either way because even though Dawodu’s striking is clearly better, Erosa does have more power and that KO threat is definitely there.
Chris’ Pick: Dawodu by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dawodu -150
Anton Turkalj vs Jailton Almeida
- Anton Turkalj
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques. Submitted Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Almeida is 3 fights into his UFC career and could be in for a Jiri Prochazka like ascent. He moved up from light heavyweight to heavyweight which is the toughest in the sport to move up to. And dominated 60 wrestler Porter. All he needed was one take down. And Porter weighs the full 265 lbs so it’s not like, oh, Almeida took down a lighter heavyweight. Turkalj’s win on the Contender wasn’t that spectacular, but it was dominant. The line opened with Turkalj as a -300 favorite over Acacio dos Santos, but the money came in on the dos Santos side, the market thinking that the fight would be closer. Turkalj closed as a -170 favorite. Maybe the striking would be close, but Turkalj having a grappling edge. Turns out Turkalj has wrestling. Which is interesting because of the limited footage out there on him, he’s never shown it. But he trains at All Stars in Sweeden with Alexander Gustafsson, Khamzat Chimaev. Ilir Latifi. He dominated 55 wrestler dos Santos on the ground. Striking was close to equal, but that’s probably because dos Santos’ striking is closer to a 60. Almeida is going to open as a gigantic favorite, but I see Turkalj as a live underdog. I have Almeida’s striking as a 65, but there’s a tad of projection baked in because we haven’t seen too much of it. All of Almeida’s fights have been just take the guy down and control him. And there’s a possibility that Turkalj’s wrestling could be as high as a 70, because there’s just not much video on him. And it’s possible dos Santos has 60 wrestling. So I’m picking Almeida to win, but I see tremendous value on Turkalj if you can get him anywhere in the neighborhood of +500.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -225
Jamie Pickett vs Dennis Tiuliulin
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker. Beat Joseph Holmes and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I could be wrong, but I think Pickett upsetting Holmes had more to do with everybody grading Holmes a bit too high vs Pickett showed up improved. Pickett has plateaued. He’s 8 fights into his UFC career. Tiuliulin took on Aliaskhab Khizriev on just a few days notice. I thought Khizriev at -400 was a fair price. But the line closed with Khizriev as a crazy -1250 favorite. Super crazy high number. And at the start of the fight, things are going according to plan, Khizriev dominating with the wrestling. Until Tiuliulin gets back up and stuffs Khizriev’s next couple take downs. Uh oh. Striking on the feet is close to equal. Uh oh. But luckily for Khizriev and all his backers, he took Tiuliulin down again in the 2nd round and this time got the choke in. But hey, I was beyond impressed with Tiuliulin. Looked like a completely different fighter from the one I watched before he got to the UFC. I have him with well rounded 55 tools, but it’s very possible he could show up a better version on a full camp. And that’s why I’m picking him as on paper I have both guys graded exactly identical.
Chris’ Pick: Tiuliulin by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tiuliulin -125
Jake Collier vs Chris Barnett
- Jake Collier
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3 at heavyweight. 5-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrei Arlovski.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Chris Barnett
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 22-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Barnett had a fun KO in his second UFC fight over Gian Villante. But his wrestling being only a 50 grade is still a problem for him. It’s how he lost his last fight against Martin Buday, being controlled along the fence. Shots landed with 55 striker Buday was close to equal though. Andrei Arlovski did land more shots against Collier. Actually, I mean shot. He landed one more. 82 to 81. Reaffirms Collier’s striking is a 65. And I wish Collier would’ve gone for more take downs because Arlovski’s wrestling is only a 55. Anyway, I see Collier as a clear tier above Barnett in every way. Margin on the ground, wide margin on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Collier by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Collier -550
Norma Dumont vs Danyelle Wolf
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.
- Key Wins: Beat Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Danyelle Wolf
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 1-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Teniesha Tennant.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I had Tennant with 55 striking and 60 wrestling going into the Contender fight with Wolf. But there were lots of surprises in the fight. Not only was Tennant not able to take Wolf down. But amazingly, Tennant out struck Wolf 77 to 50. But those numbers are a bit obscured by a lopsided 2nd round for Tennant. Striking was close to equal in the 1st and 3rd rounds. So if we say Tennant’s striking is a 60, then it also means Wolf’s striking is only a 60. And I can’t keep Dumont’s wrestling at a 70 any longer. She stuffed take downs from Spencer and I thought wow, Spencer has 70 grappling, Dumont must have 70 wrestling. But what’s happened since then? 70 wrestler Aspen Ladd had over 7 minutes of control time along the fence in their fight. And then in Dumont’s last fight, it would appear Chiasson leveled up to a 70 wrestling grade as well with 6 take downs and over 7 minutes of control. Shots landed against 70 striker Chiasson were close to equal though. Wolf is kind of a big unknown. The UFC has had a hard time getting a fight for her. But let’s look at the one fight we do have. It wasn’t Wolf blowing her out of the water. It was a very close, back and forth fight. I think Dumont, who is a legit title contender at 145 lbs, is way, way too much too soon for Wolf.
Chris’ Pick: Dumont by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dumont -350
Heili Alateng vs Chad Anheliger
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Gustavo Lopez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Croom and a 5-1 striker. Beat Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Chad Anheliger
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jesse Strader, Brady Hiestand, a 4-1 grappler, and a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 16-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Anheliger was a -240 favorite going into his fight with Strader, but was almost upset. But that’s because Strader was better than the market thought. Takes nothing away from Anheliger’s skills. Matter of fact, Anheliger proved to be better than I thought. With his durability and cardio I’m now upgrading his striking and power to 60 grades. I had Lopez graded with 55 striking going into his fight with Heili. Line closed as close to a pick em and the market turned out to be right as their striking was close to equal. I wasn’t too sure if Lopez’s striking was better than I thought or Heili’s not as good. But then Heili took on Croom, who I had graded with 60 striking and Heili out struck him 8 to 2 before knocking him out. So a 60 grade for Heili’s striking was affirmed. And Heili being able to stuff 60 wrestler Lopez’s take downs also means he has 60 wrestling. This is likely to be a close stand up fight because Heili doesn’t use his wrestling for offense that much. He should though because that’s where he’ll have his biggest edge.
Chris’ Pick: Heili by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Heili -125
Melissa Martinez vs Elise Reed
- Melissa Martinez
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Elise Reed
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I still think Reed has 55 wrestling based on her ability to stuff some take downs against 60-65 grappler McKenna. But I think what happened to Reed in the Sam Hughes fight is Hughes just leveled up her wrestling to a 65. That’s the most plausible explanation. But what else is interesting is that I’m very confident in Hughes striking being a 60 grade. Turns out Reed out struck Hughes 12 to 6 in the 1st round before Hughes started going for the take downs. So I’m going to upgrade Reed’s striking to a 60. Martinez is coming off a long layoff. Last fought in 2019 against a well rounded 5-1 fighter with 55 striking and 55 wrestling. And Martinez absolutely didn’t win that fight. Striking was close to equal. But Martinez’s opponent got a few take downs. Had top control. Was landing shots. Martinez lost, but the judges gave her the win. Especially considering Martinez’s last fight was when she was 22 years old, it’s obvious she’s going to show up improved for this fight but we just don’t know how much improved. So even though Reed should win on paper based on skills we’ve seen, I expect it to be a really close fight.
Chris’ Pick: Reed by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Reed -150
Yohan Lainesse vs Darian Weeks
- Yohan Lainesse
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 12-4 grappler. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Darian Weeks
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Lainesse has a tendency to blitz his opponents hard in the 1st round. And you can get away with that outside the UFC. Lainesse has 6 KOs and 5 of the 6 came in the 1st round. And sure enough, Lainesse takes on a UFC caliber guy in Gabe Green who’s durable, was able to weather the strom. Then took over in the 2nd round until Lainesse ran out of gas and couldn’t continue. So there’s a lot of volatility in betting on a guy like Lainesse because he hasn’t shown an ability to be efficient and manage his gas tank. Despite the 0-2 UFC record, Weeks is a very good prospect. He hung in with Ian Garry for the first 2 rounds before Garry pulled away in the 3rd. His tools were reaffirmed in the fight. Garry’s 65 striking was just slightly better. And going back to what I was saying earlier, this is going to be another fight to test Lainesse’s cardio. Because Weeks is just as durable as Green. I actually see this fight playing out pretty similar to the Green fight. But the thing that makes this fight a little safer for Weeks is he should be able to mix in a take down if he gets in trouble in the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Weeks by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Weeks -175