Leon Aliu vs Brunno Ferreira
- Leon Aliu
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0-1 wrestler and an 8-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
First thing that popped into my mind while watching Aliu is really fast hands, fast feet. He had a high profile fight in Cage Warriors against a 8-3 grappler who I think has 50 striking, 55 grappling. It’s possible Aliu could have 65 striking. He didn’t get touched much at all. Ferreira looks to be pretty good. I watched a couple of his fights. I have his grappling at 55 for now, but it could be a 60. Striking looks to be a 55. Aliu has already gone against a similar opponent. I expect him to be able to stuff most take downs or get back up if taken down. His striking is just on another level and will be too much.
Chris’ Pick: Aliu by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aliu -225
Raul Rosas Jr vs Mando Guttierez
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 17
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Mando Guttierez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Rosas Jr has championship level upside. I believe he’s the youngest fighter we’ve ever seen in the UFC or the Contender. 17 years old. And I’ll say this, I was skeptical about a 17 year old kid being put on the Contender, especially with only 5 pro fights. But then I started watching his fights and wow, I was blown away by what I saw. Now, it’s important to keep in mind, Rosas Jr was going against fighters with 1-0 and 1-1 type records, but Rosas Jr displayed Khabib type dominance on the ground. I really could’ve believe a 17 year old kid was manhandling guys in their mid and late twenties. I’m using a bit of projection to say his striking is a 50, because the vast majority of his fights are on the ground. And Guttierez is not too much different, except he’s got more pro fights and experience. In his last fight with a 4-1 grappler who I think has 55 grappling, the 1st round went back and forth. But it’s Guttierez’s cardio and gas tank that make his grappling tool a 60 for me as he was able to take over in the 2nd round, his opponent gassing out. But there’s not too much video out there where he’s striking for long periods of time because most of his fights, he immediately grapples them and finishes them off quick. So I’m projecting that his striking is a 55, but it could be a 50. The UFC set this fight up to see what they could do on their feet. And because we have no clue how good their striking is, it makes this a coin flip.
Chris’ Pick: Guttierez by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Guttierez -135
Austen Lane vs Richard Jacobi
- Austen Lane
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: fringe average (45)
- Richard Jacobi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 4-0 striker to a majority draw.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Not much video out there with Jacobi. I did see him fight a 22-22 striker that I think has 45 striking and 40 wrestling. Jacobi had his way with him. Fight was never in doubt. Over in 3 minutes. The opponent landed maybe 1 or 2 shots. It’s possible that Jacobi’s tools are better than where I’m grading them, but the reason I’m not is because he took a step up in competition against a 4-0 striker and the fight was ruled a majority draw. One of Lane’s last fights is a KO over UFC vet Juans Adams. Looks great, right? Well, kind of. The first 3 rounds of the fight was Adams taking Lane down and controlling him. Adams started to gas out middle of the 3rd round and that’s when Lane got his chance to do damage on the feet. Total coin flip of who wins here, but I think Jacobi is more well rounded and is more likely to have 60 striking than Lane.
Chris’ Pick: Jacobi by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jacobi -135
Nurullo Aliev vs Josh Wick
- Nurullo Aliev
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Josh Wick
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-5
- Key Losses: Lost to a 13-6 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Vince Morales. Knocked out a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: fringe average (45)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: average (50)
Wick is brought in on less than 2 weeks notice. One of his last fights was against a 13-4 wrestler with 50 tools. Most of the fight was on the feet where Wick’s opponent got the better of the exchanges. Since then, Wick has two 1st round knockouts in a row, albeit over average competition. Aliev took on a well rounded 8-2 fighter with 50 tools last time out. Got the better of the striking, but most of the fight was Aliev taking him down, battering him on the ground, the opponent would get back up and then be dumped right back down again. Aliev’s wrestling is a 60 grade for me. I don’t really see any pathway for Wick to win here. He had no confidence in trying to take down that 13-4 wrestler, despite losing on the feet. Now he gets a much stiffer test and I see Aliev cruising here.
Chris’ Pick: Aliev by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Aliev -300
Roybert Echeverria vs Jafel Filho
- Roybert Echeverria
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a well rounded 11-8 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Jafel Filho
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I might be under rating Echeverria, but I don’t think that I am. His last fight was against a well rounded 11-8 fighter who I thought had 45 tools. And it was an entertaining fight. Both guys were swinging. But Echeverria got hit a lot, so much so, that he barely squeaked by with a split decision win. I think what happened is Echeverria’s opponent might have had 50 tools, but that means I see Echeverria as having 50 tools as well. Filho’s last fight was against a well rounded 8-3 fighter with 50 tools and Filho had no problem taking him down, passing guard. And within a couple minutes, getting the arm triangle and tap. Filho seems to be better everywhere with a bit of margin.
Chris’ Pick: Filho by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Filho -400