Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 21-8
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus plus (80)
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
I think it’s very clear that Makhachev has earned a 75 grade for his grappling. His last two wins come with a bit of an asterisk. He submitted Green on a few days notice. He also submitted Hooker, who took the fight on a couple weeks notice. And Hooker took on Makhachev a month after beating Nasrat Haqparast. Makhachev’s wins over Moises and Dober give us the best look at where his skills are at. And yes, Moises has 65 grappling, Dober has 65 wrestling. Makhachev was able to take both down, control, and eventually get submissions. But the real question is where is Makhachev’s striking at? Looking at the numbers, when the fight was on the feet with 65 striker Dober, the striking was close to equal. When strikes were being exchanged between him and Moises, the strikes were close to equal for most of the fight. Which means Makhachev’s striking is a 65. My biggest takeaway from the Oliveira vs Gaethje fight is that Oliveira leveled up even more. Which is crazy. I grade Poirier as a 75 striker and he out landed Oliveira. But then Oliveira takes on another 75 striker in Gaethje and this time Oliveira lands more shots 20 to 15. So I’m upgrading Oliveira’s striking to a 75 now. I’m still not completely confident Oliveira’s grappling is a top of the scale 80 grade, but I’m going to leave it there based on how dangerous he’s become on the ground. But I am confident in saying the grappling tool is no worse than a 75. Although I was skeptical in the beginning of his run, the bottom line is that Oliveira is proving himself against known quantities now. What he’s doing is no fluke. The tools are real. And I might be going against the narrative here, but I think Oliveira is better on the ground. But the biggest reason I’m confidently picking Oliveira is that he has a monster power advantage on the feet. Yeah, it’s possible Makhachev’s striking could be a 70, but he’s not knocking guys out. I mean let’s look at ways Makhachev could win. Is he going to submit Oliveira? Doubt it. Would he be able to control Oliveira on the ground for 5 rounds without getting submitted? Doubt it. Anyway Makhachev wins the striking exchanges? No chance. Who has more experience in title fights? Oliveira. There’s no way Makhachev should be the favorite.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oliveira -350
Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision over Petr Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- TJ Dillashaw
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 16-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Renan Barao twice. Beat John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision over Cory Sandhagen.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
The long lay off for Dillashaw isn’t a concern for me. His last one was a longer one. In the last 5 years, since 2017, Dillashaw has only fought 4 times. We now know for sure that Sandhagen has 75 striking and 70 wrestling. Striking vs Dillashaw was close to equal, but Dillashaw won because he mixed some take downs and clinch work into the fight. But is it enough for me to upgrade Dillashaw’s wrestling to a 75? Probably. We just never see Dillashaw’s wrestling because he prefers using the stand up. But he was forced to use the wrestling with Sandhagen because he hurt his knee in the fight. I’m going to grade the wrestling a 75 for now, but I could be wrong and it could be a 70. For awhile, I’ve wondered if Sterling’s striking has been a 75 after he put on a masterclass with 65 striker Munhoz, out landing him by almost a 2 to 1 clip. Since then, he submitted Sandhagen in about a minute. And forget the DQ of the first Yan fight, Sterling should’ve lost. He was on his way to losing. But in the first 2 rounds of the fight, Sterling did out strike him. However the striking was close to equal in the 3rd and 4th. And with Sterling out of gas, Yan likely would’ve out struck him in the 5th. But now that the second Sterling vs Yan fight is out of the way, we have a clear answer. When the fight was on the feet, striking was close to equal. So Sterling’s striking is once and for all a 70 for me. However, Sterling also showed his grappling is definitely a 75. I like Sterling, I picked him to upset Yan. But I have to go with Dillashaw here as I see him having the ability to stuff all or most of Sterling’s take downs. And Dillashaw should have a big advantage on the feet, especially with the power.
Chris’ Pick: Dillashaw by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dillashaw -175
Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley
- Petr Yan
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Aljamain Sterling.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
O’Malley’s last fight with Munhoz was a bit weird, not just because of the ending but because Munhoz out struck O’Malley 19 to 15 in the 1st round. I think that was more of a fluke because Munhoz came in with a much different approach, wasn’t going forward like he normally does. In the 2nd round, O’Malley out landed him 10 to 7 when the eye poke happened and I think the round and even the fight was starting to trend in O’Malley’s direction. O’Malley has a long track record of 70 striking, I don’t think anything changed in the Munhoz fight. What was most interesting is Munhoz didn’t even attempt any take downs. After Yan’s last couple fights, we really have enough data to see where his skills are at. In my humble opinion, I think he’s been over rated and over hyped. His best skill is his cardio and when opponents start to gas out in 5 round fights, he looks spectacular at the end. He is an elite fighter. I have him with 70 striking and wrestling, to go along with 60 power. I think O’Malley wanted this fight with Yan because beating him in 3 rounds is much more doable than beating him in 5. I also know I’m going against the narrative in saying I think O’Malley has more power and it’ll be the reason he wins this close fight.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by decision.
What I think the odds should be: O’Malley -135
Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot
- Beniel Dariush
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 15-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Gamrot vs Tsarukyan is a leading contender for fight of the year. And I wasn’t the only one who thought Tsarukyan would win as Tsarukyan closed as a -325 favorite. But Gamrot leveled up both his striking and wrestling. Ultimately, it was his cardio and the fact that he had more gas towards the end that won him the fight. I’m pretty sure that Ferreira has 70 grappling. And the fact that Dariush was able to take Ferreira down repeatedly and win grappling exchanges likely means 75 wrestling. And being able to take down and control Ferguson all fight also points to 75 wrestling. His striking is probably a 70. I say probably because I thought Ferreira’s striking is a 65, but the striking in their fight turned out to be close to equal. So maybe Ferreira leveled up his striking to a 70. Probably want happened with the line in that fight closing with Dariush as a close -120 favorite. With how long Dariush has been in the UFC, you’d think Gamrot would be the much younger fighter. But amazingly, Dariush is only 33 years old. Only 2 years older. The biggest difference between both guys is Dariush will carry more power. He’s got 2 KO wins in his last 4 fights. Gamrot does have better cardio, but this is a 3 round fight. I see Dariush edging it out.
Chris’ Pick: Dariush by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dariush -135
Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot
- Katlyn Chookagian
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 125 lbs. 10-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Jennifer Maia, Viviane Araujo, Cynthia Calvillo, Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision wins over Amanda Ribas and Irene Aldana.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Turns out I was under rating Fiorot. I thought 65 striker Maia vs Fiorot would be close, totally disagreed with where the line closed which had Fiorot as a -450 favorite. Crazy. But not only was Fiorot even better than I thought, she leveled up. Fiorot out struck Maia by over a 2 to 1 clip. That’s dominating someone who fought for the title. Fiorot also got the better of the wrestling, which makes her wrestling a 70 for me. Chookagian’s fight with Ribas was close as expected. Split decision variety. Chookagian got the better of the striking in the first half of the fight and Ribas got the better of the second half. Ribas was able to mix in some take downs, she might have 75 grappling. I still think Chookagian has 70 wrestling. This is a really good matchup, but Fiorot should have the edge in the stand up to win.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fiorot -175
Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Beat Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Sean Brady
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jake Matthews and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Muhammad proved once and for all that his striking has elevated to a 70 grade with how he was able to keep up with 70 striker Luque. And Muhammad won the fight in a familiar way, with taking down 65 grappler Luque, repeatedly. And I’m really questioning myself on doing this but Brady’s performance over 75 grappler Chiesa leaves me no choice. And is Chiesa’s grappling really a 75? Well, let’s look. Luque has 65 grappling. Chiesa was dominating that fight, almost got the submission, gassed his arms out, got caught in a choke. Before that, Chiesa fought Neil Magny and there’s no chance Magny’s wrestling is worse than a 65. Zero chance. Chiesa out classed him on the ground. Before that, Chiesa vs Rafael dos Anjos. I’m 100% confident dos Anjos has at least 65 wrestling. And yet, Chiesa took him down and controlled him there most of the fight. So it’s safe to say Chiesa’s grappling is a 75. That brings us to Brady vs Chiesa and I was shocked to see Brady out grapple Chiesa. An 80 grade is top of the food chain. Based on what I saw, I have no choice but to grade Brady’s wrestling an 80. And if Brady was able to get Chiesa’s back, I’m pretty sure he’ll be able to do it to Muhammad. In my opinion, Brady looks like a future champion at 170 lbs in the next couple years.
Chris’ Pick: Brady by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brady -200
Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Borralho
- Makhmud Muradov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 25-7
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andrew Sanchez, Trevor Smith, a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Beat Alessio Di Chirico.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Borralho has championship upside. For his wrestling to already be at a 70 grade only 4 fights into his UFC career, is very rare. It’s seems likely the tool will eventually reach a 75. I think his striking is a 60 based on what I saw on the Contender, but his past 2 fights, it’s been nothing but take downs. So it’s possible his striking could be a 65, but I’m being conservative and leaving it at a 60 for now. I know for a fact Krzysztof Jotko has 65 striking. He fought Meerschaert and landed more shots, showing Meerschaert’s striking is still a 60. That’s relevant here because I thought Muradov had 65 striking but the striking with Meerschaert turned out to be about equal. So I’m downgrading his striking tool to a 60. Barralho should cruise here taking Muradov down repeatedly.
Chris’ Pick: Borralho by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Borralho -300
Volkan Oezdemir vs Nikita Krylov
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Paul Craig. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson, Ed Herman, and Walt Harris. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Currently, I still think Krylov’s fight with Ankalaev is the best way to judge where his skills are at. His next two fights after that ended so quick and both had unique circumstances. Craig attempted 15 take downs on Oezdemir. Never got him down. Safe to say Oezdemir has 70 wrestling. The striking went as expected against 65 striker Craig. Oezdemir landed more shots. Coin flip type fight. Krylov’s striking might be closer to a 75 than Oezdemir’s based on how Krylov was able to out strike Magomed Ankalaev, who I thought had 65 striking at the time, but I could be wrong. Oezdemir might be able to mix in some take downs. Who knows what happens here.
Chris’ Pick: Oezdemir by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Oezdemir -135
Zubaira Tukhugov vs Lucas Almeida
- Zubaira Tukhugov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Lerone Murphy to a draw.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Hakeem Dawodu and Renato Moicano.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Aguilar. Beat Ricardo Raomos and Douglas Silva de Andrade.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lucas Almeida
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I couldn’t believe that Trizano closed as a -225 favorite over Almeida. They must not have known how good he is. Almeida did take his striking to another level, landed more shots than Trizano, enough for me to grade it a 65. The power difference was evident. But another slight surprise is that Almeida showed up with 55 wrestling and was able to stuff Trizano’s take downs. Tukhugov is coming off a hard earned win over 65 striker Ramos. Striking was close to equal but the difference was Tukhugov having more power. We haven’t seen Tukhugov’s 65 wrestling in awhile, but he does still have it and I see him utilizing it to take Almeida down to get the W.
Chris’ Pick: Tukhugov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tukhugov -200
Abubaker Nurmagomedov vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Bojan Velickovic to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 17-5 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Omargadzhiev vs Borralho was a total surprise. Line closed with both at -110. A pick em. But Borralho won in a landslide being able to take Omargadzhiev down and control him on the ground all fight. Which shows Omargadzhiev’s wrestling is only a 60. And with the striking, there’s no way Borralho has 55 striking paired with 70 wrestling. His striking is for sure at least a 60 and the striking between him and Omargadzhiev was close to equal, albeit in a small sample. So I’m upgrading Omargadzhiev’s striking to a 60. Abubaker showed improved striking in his last fight with Jared Gooden. I was impressed. I upgraded his striking to a 60. Close fight, but I think Omargadzhiev having more power will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Omargadzhiev by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Omargadzhiev -150
Armen Petrosyan vs AJ Dobson
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- AJ Dobson
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Dobson did lose his last fight, but I was still impressed. He took on 65 wrestler Jacob Malkoun and Malkoun took him down and controlled him to get the win. But I was impressed because of what the striking numbers said. Going into the fight, I was confident Malkoun had 60 striking. I know that to be true because in Malkoun’s next fight, he showed off 65 striking against Brendan Allen. Well, in the 1st round, when the fight was on the feet, Dobson out struck Malkoun 37 to 23. Wow. Rest of the fight was on the ground, but shows Dobson’s striking is way better than I thought. I had thought Petrosyan’s wrestling was a 65 based on how he was able to get up when Rodrigues took him down. But then he took on Caio Barralho and got taken down and controlled the whole fight, so I’m downgrading Petrosyan’s wrestling to a 60. I’m still confident in his striking being a 70 though because he out struck Rodrigues by a 2 to 1 clip. Striker vs striker fight. Even if Dobson’s grappling is a 60, it won’t matter. It’s going to be fun while it lasts.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrosyan -275
Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon
- Muhammad Mokaev
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden. Beat Charles Johnson and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Malcolm Gordon
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Francisco Figueiredo, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Even though Mokaev vs Johnson was one of the most boring fights we’ve ever seen in the UFC, I do have to give both credit to grapple for almost 15 rounds. Neither was budging and we had mostly a stalemate, with Mokaev winning with control time. He could fight the same way against Gordon, who I think would have the ability to get up as well. But Mokaev should have more of an advantage on the feet in this one. I see him getting Gordon out quickly.
Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mokaev -500
Lina Lansberg vs Karol Rosa
- Lina Lansberg
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 135 lbs. 4-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Beat Macy Chiasson and Tonya Evinger.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Even at 40 years old, Lansberg’s tools are holding up. Lost a close fight to 65 striker Pannie Kianzad. Not much striking in the 1st round, string was close in the 2nd, but Kianzad pulled away out striking her by more than 2 to 1. Rosa lost her first fight in the UFC because she couldn’t stop Sara McMann’s 75 wrestling. But when the fight was on the feet, she proved again that her striking is a 65. Rosa is a little bit everywhere and especially with the possibility of Lansberg showing regression here, I really think Rosa will cruise.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rosa -350