Adesanya vs Pereira, Esparza vs Zhang, Poirier vs Chandler Fight Picks - UFC 281 - November 12, 2022 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Israel Adesanya
Age: 33
UFC Record: 12-0 at 185 lbs. 12-1 overall.
Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
Striking: near plus plus (75)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Alex Pereira
Age: 35
Pro Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva.
Striking: near plus plus (75)
Power: near plus plus (75)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Adesanya vs Cannonier was the typical Adesanya fight. Smart game plan. Defensively minded. Risk averse. I thought Cannonier would have a chance with his power and he did land some power shots but Adesanya’s chin held up. Striking in 1st and 5th rounds was close to equal, but Adesanya did out strike him in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. The thing that stands out to me most about Pereira is how much he’s improved every time he’s fought in the UFC. Only 3 fights. Celebrated kick boxer. Famous for knocking Adesanya out in that sport. Training with Glover Teixeira. I rewatched Pereira’s second UFC fight against Bruno Silva. And Pereira’s striking was a 70, wrestling a 60. But he got even better. Took on a 70 striker in Strickland and out landed him 25 to 15. His striking jumped from a 70 to a 75 grade real quick. We didn’t see Pereira wrestle, but it’s very likely that tool improved to a 65, based on what I saw in the Silva fight. We also saw Pereira’s cardio hold up for 3 rounds in the Silva fight. Pereira does have an advantage here knowing he’s knocked Adesanya out before. We know 72% of fighters that win the first time, win the rematch. But the caveat is that’s in the UFC. Pereira beat Adesanya in kick boxing. But the main reason I’m picking Pereira is the difference in power. Look, Adesanya is used to not being the guy with the most power. That’s why he has to be defensive minded. But Pereira is a horrible matchup because Pereira matches him in reach, Pereira is just as accurate. Adesanya won’t be able to go blow for blow because Pereira has way more power. But if Pereira doesn’t get the KO and Adesanya’s chin holds up, it’s very likely Adesanya has the better cardio and the strikes landed would be close. If Adesanya mixes in some take downs and makes Pereira wrestle more, to tire him out, and try and win the last 3 rounds, that’d be the smart way to approach it. But ultimately, I think Pereira will get the KO.

Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Pereira -125

Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang

Carla Esparza
Age: 34
UFC Record: 10-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randa Markos.
Key Wins: Submitted Angela Hill. Knocked out Xiaonan Yan. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso. Split decision wins over Rose Namajunas and Marina Rodriguez.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Weili Zhang
Age: 32
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Tecia Torres.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: plus (70)
Grappling: above average (60)

What’s there to say about Esparza’s title win over Namajuans? Possibly the weirdest fight ever. I’ve seen 17 years of fights. I’ve never seen a title fight like that where both athletes go pretty much the whole match up not engaging. Both refused to advance. And Esparza happened to win via split decision. Can’t really make any changes to Esparza’s grades after that. The Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk fight is also hard to figure out. Yes, Zhang got the KO. But what happened in the fight? The market agreed with me on where Jedrzejczyk’s tools were at. I thought Zhang should be a -175 favorite, market closed with Zhang a -155 favorite. Close to the same. Close fight, but slight edge to Zhang, because of her power advantage. I had Jedrzejczyk with 70 wrestling, but Zhang was able to take her down a few times. So it’s possible Zhang’s wrestling has improved to a 75. What’s most interesting is that Jedrzejczyk out struck Zhang 20 to 9 in the 1st round. But then striking was close to equal in the 2nd round. Who knows how the 3rd round would’ve gone but I’m keeping Zhang’s striking grade as a 70. I’m not that excited about this fight because I think Zhang is going to run Esparza over. That the fight won’t be close. The power difference will be vast. And whatever hesitancy Namajunas had about engaging Esparza, that won’t happen here with Zhang.

Chris’ Pick: Zhang by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Zhang -450

Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler

Dustin Poirier
Age: 33
UFC Record: 20-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
Key Wins: Knocked out Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
Striking: near plus plus (75)
Power: near plus plus (75)
Grappling: plus (70)

Michael Chandler
Age: 35
Pro Record: 23-6
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Dan Hooker, a well rounded 14-1 fighter, and a 14-3 grappler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Even though Ferguson has been losing fights, he’s still shown 70 grade striking. So the fact that the striking between Chandler and Ferguson was close to equal is no cause for alarm. Chandler’s fights with Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira provide corroboration that his striking is still a 70. Haven’t seen Chandler develop as much. He’s 35 years old. Might be at his ceiling. Not sure if he’s got enough time to improve from here. Poirier hasn’t fought in about a year. Title fight with 70 striker Charles Oliveira. He did well in the 1st round, out struck him. But everything changed when Oliveira got him down in the 2nd round. Either Poirier had an adrenaline dump in the 1st round and was gassed. Or the championship jitters got him. Either way, once Oliveira started grappling with him, it was over soon after that. But Poirier still retains his tools. I’m confident his striking is on the same level as Gaethje. I think this’ll be a similar fight as Chandler vs Gaethje was. Poirier is durable. I think he lands more and wins.

Chris’ Pick: Poirier by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Poirier -200

Frankie Edgar vs Chris Guttierez

Frankie Edgar
Age: 40
UFC Record: 1-2 at 135 lbs. 8-5 at 145 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes and Yair Rodriguez. Submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Charles Oliveira, Urijah Faber, and Jeremy Stephens.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris Gutierrez
Age: 31
UFC Record: 6-1-1
Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

It’s possible that Guttierez is starting to unlock some KO power, coming off a knockout over Batgerel. Fight played out how I thought. Striking and wrestling about equal. But Batgerel started to slow down in the 2nd round and I think that’s what cost him. But I did upgrade Guttierez’s power to a 60. And in my opinion, Edgar put on his best performance in a really long time against Chito Vera. Yes, he got knocked out in the 3rd. But the fight was about a minute away from going to the judges score cards and it was a close fight. Striking was almost equal with Vera out landing him 75 to 69. Close! And I know Vera has 70 striking for sure. I’m tempted to upgrade Edgar’s striking to a 70, but I can’t based off of this being Edgar’s retirement fight and I can’t ignore his fight with 65 striker Munhoz where Munhoz out struck him 166 to 134. I’ll bump his wrestling up to a 70 though. He was able to take Vera down and get some control time, even if Vera was content at times to work off his back. I think the UFC did Edgar a solid with this matchup. Guttierez is someone Edgar should be able to take down and control to go out with a W.

Chris’ Pick: Edgar by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Edgar -225

Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles

Dan Hooker
Age: 32
UFC Record: 8-4 at 155 lbs. 11-8 overall.
Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: plus (70)
Grappling: above average (60)

Claudio Puelles
Age: 26
UFC Record: 5-1
Key Wins: Submitted Clay Guida, Chris Greutzemacher, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Jordan Leavitt.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Guida found out the hard way that Puelles is becoming a guy that you don’t want to be on the ground with. 3 of Pulles’ 5 wins is by knee bar, which is unique. My only concern about Puelles is that he uses a lot of energy when he grapples and I haven’t seen him be able to grapple hard all 3 rounds. He started to gas out in the 3rd round of the Greutzemacher fight, but he’s young and still has time to work on his cardio. Hooker is also a bit of a unique case. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights and you might be tempted to say he’s done, but let’s look at those and add some context. He had that memorable fight with Dustin Poirier in 2020. Close fight. Showed 70 striking, 70 wrestling. No shame there. He then got knocked out by Michael Chandler. And maybe he was under estimating Chandler, who was making his UFC debut. Striking was close to equal though before Chandler got the KO. Hooker then bounced back against Haqparast who has 60 striking. Hooker showed 70 striking in the 1st round but then maybe 65 striking in the 2nd and 3rd. Which I think was him going more on cruise control. I’ve seen so much of Hooker’s striking be a 70, I’m not ready to down grade the tool. So he goes 3 rounds with Haqparast and decides to take a short notice fight a month later with Islam Makhachev. That ended quick. Hooker probably didn’t give himself enough time to recover. Then he tried 145 lbs again with Arnold Allen, got knocked out in a few minutes. His body probably can’t handle damage with such a severe weight cut. Now, it’s possible that Hooker took so much damage in the Poirier fight that his career has started to crater after that. That’s what happened to Tony Ferguson after 5 rounds with Justin Gaethje. Never the same. But I don’t think that’s the case as Hooker looked like his normal self against Haqparast and that was last year, just 3 fights ago. I’m really confident in Hooker in this fight because even if Puelles elevates his grappling to a 70, Hooker should be able to stuff take downs. On the feet, Hooker has tons more power. And if Hooker is smart, he’ll use his 5 round experience to put a lot of pressure on Pulles, fight at a fast pace, tire him out.

Chris’ Pick: Hooker by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Hooker -375

Brad Riddell vs Renato Moicano

Brad Riddell
Age: 30
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Alex da Silva, a 12-2 striker. Beat Drew Dober. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Renato Moicano
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-2 at 155 lbs. 8-5 overall.
Key Wins: Submitted Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Beat Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: plus (70)

Despite Moicano having up and down results in his UFC career, I still see him on an upward trajectory. His last fight with Hernandez was interesting on the feet. I have Hernandez with 65 striking. He went hard in the 1st round, out struck Moicano 26 to 10. But then in the 2nd round, he started to gas out and Moicano took over landing more shots 16 to 9. Moicano won because of his ability to take Hernandez down and while on the ground, caught him in a choke. So I’m pretty sure Moicano’s striking is still a 70. And I kinda feel cheated with the Riddell vs Jalin Turner fight. Turner rocked Riddell with a right hand, hurt him, got him in a guillotine choke, and that was it. 45 seconds. Quick finishes like that happen. Not too much to take out of it, other than Turner’s tools might be better than I thought going in. Similar to the Moicano vs Hernandez fight, I see Moicano being able to mix some take downs in. Might be able to caught Riddell in a choke while he’s down there. And that’s probably Moicano’s best chance at winning as the striking exchanges will likely be very close. Projection wise, I see Riddell being more likely to come in with improved striking, but because I do picks based off of tools I see in the current moment, I think Moicano’s take downs will help him eke out a close win.

Chris’ Pick: Moicano by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Moicano -150

Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann

Dominick Reyes
Age: 32
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Split decision over Volkan Oezdemir.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Ryan Spann
Age: 31
UFC Record: 7-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Misha Cirkunov and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Sometimes you get lucky KOs in a fight. And sometimes you get lucky submissions. I think Spann’s last fight with Cutelaba was a bit lucky in the sense that Cutelaba was getting the better of the wrestling. But when Ion was sticking his neck out trying to get another take down, Spann caught him in a choke and Cutelaba wasn’t able to get out. Can’t really change the grades of his tools either way. And I’m still not entirely sure his striking is a 70. It could be a 65. And the fight game can be pretty crazy. For Reyes, I thought he beat Jon Jones. But the judges didn’t see it that way and instead, he’s coming off three losses in a row. But it’s not like the knockout losses to Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka were blowouts either. Striking in both of those fights was close to equal. Blachowicz is a former champ. Prochazka is the current champ. My point is that Reyes is still top 5 in the division in my opinion. And I think he has a little more upside to still improve. Versus Spann, this could be another one of those close fights. But I’m picking Reyes because I’m more confident in his striking being a 70 and he’s more likely to show up as a better version.

Chris’ Pick: Reyes by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Reyes -125

Molly McCann vs Erin Blanchfield

Molly McCann
Age: 32
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Goldy and Luana Carolina. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Erin Blanchfield
Age: 23
Pro Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted JJ Aldrich. Beat Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

Blanchfield vs Aldrich is one of the harder fights to break down. Blanchfield was coming off a spectacular, dominant win over Maverick, who has 65 striking and wrestling. Striking between the two was close to equal, but Blanchfield won because she was able to take Maverick down and keep her there. That brings us to the Aldrich fight. I had Aldrich with 60 striking and 65 wrestling. Market agreed with me as the line closed with Blanchfield as a -425 favorite. But Aldrich has gotten way, way better. Her win over Gillian Robertson appears to be no fluke. Blanchfield was slightly out wrestling Aldrich. Winning most of the clinch battles. I was surprised Blanchfield wasn’t able to get any take downs when she tried. It makes me question whether her wrestling tool is a 75. But I know Maverick has 65 wrestling. The market agreed with it. The big mystery is how much better has Aldrich gotten? With McCann, she’s coming off her second KO in a row. Which is significant at that weight class, not as many KOs at 125 lbs. Definitely seems like McCann has unlocked more power, so I have it graded as a 65 now. And her striking is definitely a 65. Goldy has 55 striking, McCann out struck her 19 to 6. The match making here is fascinating. McCann looks like she’s becoming a star. So the UFC now matches her up with Blanchfield?? The UFC and McCann’s management have to think that McCann’s wrestling is better than I think it is. And maybe that Blanchfield’s isn’t as good. But I see what I see and the numbers are what they are. I expect this to be a mismatch where Blanchfield should easily get take downs here with McCann offering not much resistance.

Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Blanchfield -350

Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman

Andre Petroski
Age: 31
Pro Record: 8-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: above average (60)

Wellington Turman
Age: 26
UFC Record: 3-3
Key Wins: Submitted Misha Cirkunov, a 13-3 striker, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: near plus (65)

We didn’t really learn too much from Petroski’s last fight. Impressive that he submitted Maximov in a little over a minute, but too small a sample size to upgrade any of his tools, although it’s possible he got better. Turman reaffirmed his tools in his last fight with Cirkunov. Striking was equal, albeit a small sample, 8 to 8. Cirkunov has 65-70ish grappling, was getting the better of it against Turman, but Turman pulled off the arm bar from his back. I’m not sure I’m completely sold on Petroski fixing his efficiency issues. Early in his career, he’s been known to blitz hard in the 1st round and then run out of gas in the 2nd. However, he went close to 3 rounds with Yaozong Hu and his cardio looked fine. Turman should win this fight, but I wouldn’t be too shocked in Petroski gets the KO as he has more power.

Chris’ Pick: Turman by decision.

What I think the odd should be: Turman -175

Matt Frevola vs Ottman Azaitar

Matt Frevola
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-3-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

Ottman Azaitar
Age: 32
Pro Record: 13-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, and 6-1 striker.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

It’s tempting to think that Azaitar might have 65 or even 70 striking based on how dominant he’s looked in the UFC so far. But both wins were over very quick. His last fight against 60 striker Worthy, the final totals of significant distance strikes was 3 to 1. Very small sample. So I’m going to leave his striking as a 60, but I’m open to the idea that it could be better. We also don’t really know where his wrestling is at either, but I think it’s at least a 55. Frevola closed as a -200 favorite over Valdez. I disagreed with it. I thought Valdez should’ve been a -150 favorite. Because I thought they were almost equal, except Valdez had more power. And Valdez seemed to think the same thing going in as he blitzed hard at the start of the fight. But just like Cody Garbrandt vs Pedro Munhoz, when you get in wild slugfests, guys that don’t usually get KOs can get KOs. And that’s what happened with Frevola. Striking in the fight was close to equal. So I’m keeping Frevola’s grades where they’re at. This fight is going to test Azaitar’s cardio and wrestling. Or at least should. Actually, it might not because I’ve seen Frevola get knocked out before. He might believe in his hands a bit more than he should. Monster power advantage for Avaitar.

Chris’ Pick: Avaitar by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Azaitar -175

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez

Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Age: 36
UFC Record: 6-7
Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: fringe average (45)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Silvana Gomez Juarez
Age: 37
Pro Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Na Liang. Submitted a 3-0 striker.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

I was probably under rating Juarez. I’m confident that Na has well rounded 60 tools based on what she did with Ariane Carnelossi. The market thought it was close to a pick em fight, but I disagreed. I had Juarez with 55 tools. Fight only lasted a little over a minute, but in that span of time we saw Juarez stuff two take down attempts, enough for me to upgrade Juarez’s wrestling to a 60. And Juarez landed more shots 6 to 4. Juarez looks like she has some big time power. She knocked down Vanessa Demopoulos and almost finished her as well. Grading Kowalkiewicz is very tricky. I had Herrig with 65 striking and 65 wrestling going in. But that turned out to be Herrig’s last fight of her career. So let’s say her skills regressed since she last fought, which is plausible. She hadn’t fought in 2 years. Even with 60 wrestling, Kowalkiewicz’s dominance on the ground in the 2nd round was impressive. Easy 65 grade wrestling, but possibly as good as a 70. But what’s most interesting is you could say oh, Herrig regressed, but the striking was close to equal. So did Herrig just regress in the wrestling? Maybe. So this fight is compelling because Kowalkiewicz looks revitalized, should win this fight, but Juarez has a monster power advantage and could absolutely KO Karolina.

Chris’ Pick: Kowalkiewicz by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Kowalkiewicz -150

Michael Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi

Michael Trizano
Age: 30
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Wins: Beat Ludovit Klein. Split decision over Luis Pena
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Seung Woo Choi
Age: 29
UFC Record: 3-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Culibao.
Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average (60)

8 fights into his UFC career, I think Trizano might have hit his ceiling. His skills haven’t really improved much at all in his last few fights. His last match up with 65 striker Lucas Almeida, Trizano was out struck 54 to 26. His wrestling hasn’t improved either. Still a 55. Does Choi have 60 wrestling? He might. He fought Culibao in a kickboxing contest for most of their fight but then in the 3rd round, took Culibao down and was able to control him for the rest of the fight. A good two and a half minutes. I had Culibao with 55 wrestling so was Choi able to control him because Culibao was out of gas, or is Choi’s wrestling a 60. I’m not entirely sure, but I’ll bump the tool up to a 60 grade for now. Not that it should matter that much in this fight. Choi’s striking is clearly a 65, clearly ahead of Trizano’s. Choi should win on points.

Chris’ Pick: Choi by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Choi -275

Montel Jackson vs Julio Arce

Montel Jackson
Age: 30
UFC Record: 6-2
Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat JP Buys and Felipe Corales.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Julio Arce
Age: 32
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sheymon Moraes.
Key Wins: Beat Daniel Santos and Dan Ige.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Arce is coming off a nice bounce back win over newcomer Daniel Santos. Arce reaffirmed his 65 striking by out striking Santos by a 2 to 1 clip. I had Santos with 60 wrestling and Arce was able to stuff both take down attempts. Not too sure I can take too much away from Jackson’s last fight with Buys. It was Buys’ first fight at 135 lbs in the UFC. Buys thought he’d be able to tire Jackson out by trying to wrestle him all fight, but that wasn’t the case. I had Jackson with 60 wrestling going in, he might have elevated the tool to a 65, but I want to see more. His third to last fight, he got controlled most of the fight by Brett Johns. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arce won because I have both guys graded identically. So using projection to pick here, I like Jackson better. He hasn’t fought in over a year, is more likely to show up improved, I think his wrestling is closer to a 65 and I’m more confident his power is a 65 than Arce’s.

Chris’ Pick: Jackson by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Jackson -125

Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu

Carlos Ulberg
Age: 31
Pro Record: 5-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Nicolae Negumereanu
Age: 28
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria. Split decision wins over Kennedy Nzechukwu and Aleksa Camur.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

I think I’ve finally settled on Negumereanu having 60 striking for now. Yes, he looked great knocking out a quality prospect in Potieria. But a lot of that win had to do with Potieria gassing out. And let’s not forget, just 4 months prior to the Potieria fight, Nzechukwu out struck Negumereanu 92 to 55. And there’s zero chance Nzechukwu has 70 striking. Ulberg is coming off one of the best performances of his career, starching Nchukwi in a little over a minute. And it was enough for me to upgrade his power to a 70. And even though the fight didn’t last long, Nchukwi has 65 striking, and Ulberg out landed him 12 to 3, thus reaffirming his 70 striking. It’s also possible that Ulberg’s wrestling could be a 65, but we haven’t seen him wrestle a lot. Expect Negumereanu to try to test him there. But Negumereanu’s wrestling is only a 60, so I think Ulberg will be able to stuff most take downs and pick him apart on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Ulberg -250

Adesanya vs Pereira, Esparza vs Zhang, Poirier vs Chandler Fight Picks – UFC 281 – November 12, 2022