Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 17-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Something dramatic happened in Spivac’s last fight with Sakai, albeit in a small sample size. But before I get into, let’s rewind a couple fights. Spivac vs Tom Aspinall. Aspinall out struck Spivac 7 to 0. Knocked Spivac out. Then Spivac vs Greg Hardy. Spivac got the ground and pound TKO win, but when they were on the feet, Hardy out landed him 7-0. So Spivac is looking like a one dimensional grappler. Okay, let’s look at Sakai. I’m pretty sure he has 70 striking. But very confident the tool has a floor of a 65, it’s no worse than that. Again, small sample, it is heavyweights, but Spivac out struck Sakai 9 to 2. That’s a dramatic improvement. Enough for me to elevate his striking grade to a 65. And with how dominant he was in controlling Hardy and Sakai, it’s possible his grappling is a 75, but I’m keeping it as a 70 for now. Lewis’ last loss has a bit on an asterisk. I do think the ref stopped it a bit early, although it’s very possible, if not likely Sergei Pavlovich still would’ve knocked him out. Pavlovich out struck Lewis 14 to 4, so I do think Pavlovich has 70 striking after all. Lewis has lost 3 of his last 4, but it’s been against guys with 70 striking or better. Spivac though is a different kind of threat. He has some of the best cardio at heavyweight. And Lewis has some of the worst cardio at heavyweight. I see him taking Lewis down repeatedly until Lewis has no gas left. Spivac will win by submission, but it’ll be his pressure, pace, and cardio that win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Spivac -175
Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-7-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Nzechukwu picked the right time to elevate his wrestling game in his last fight with Roberson. Easily took 55 grappler Roberson down. Controlled him all fight. Finished him with ground and pound in the 3rd round. 65 wrestling for me now. Cutelaba’s last fight with Johnny Walker was a weird one. I had Walker graded with 60 wrestling. I thought Cutelaba would be able to take him down and control him most of the fight to win. And that’s exactly what happened the first few minutes. But then Walker reversed, Cutelaba went for an arm bar. Lost it. And to Cutelaba’s surprise, Walker took his back and the fight was over a minute later. Did Walker’s grappling get better? Obviously. But does that mean Cutelaba’s wrestling isn’t a 70? Not exactly. I know Clark has 60 wrestling for sure. Cutelaba dominated him on the ground. I just think Cutelaba just showed Walker no respect on the ground and paid for it. So I’m keeping Cutelaba graded the same. Not that it matters for this fight, expect it to play out on the feet. With Nzechukwu improving him wrestling, it’s possible he elevated his striking too, but we didn’t see it in the Roberson fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cutelaba -200
Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I was pretty sure that Vanderaa had 65 striking. He took on Andrei Arlovski and striking was about equal. But then in Sherman’s last fight with Vanderaa, he out strikes him 134 to 108. Now, that probably means Vanderaa’s striking might be more like a 60, but the important thing is it makes me very confident Sherman’s striking is a 65. Sherman was going to take on Josh Parisian, but in steps Cortes-Acosta on less than 2 weeks. And even more impressively, last fought 3 weeks ago on October 29th. He took 65 striker Vanderaa. Or at least I thought his striking was a 65. But I just can’t justify Vanderaa having that grade anymore. Cortes-Acosta out struck him 73 to 52 and I know for sure Waldo’s striking isn’t a 70 yet. So I’m upgrading Cortes-Acosta’s striking to a 65. Which means this should be a really close fight. But I’m picking Sherman because I’m more confident in his striking being a 65, I think he’s turned a corner in his development, and he might be able to mix in some wrestling to throw Cortes-Acosta off.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Sherman -135
Andre Fialho vs Muslim Salikhov
- Andre Fialho
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Francisco Trinaldo, Laureano Staropoli, and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I thought Salikhov vs Jingliang Li would be a close fight and it was. Despite the KO loss for Salikhov. Striking was close to equal. Knockouts happen sometimes. Fialho getting knocked out by Jake Matthews wasn’t about Fialho. I had Fialho as a -135 favorite. Line closed with Fialho as a -125 favorite. Everybody thought it’d be a close fight, but Fialho has more power, while Matthews might mix some grappling in. But to the shock of everybody, not only did Matthews unlock more power in his hands, he landed more than Fialho. Matthews walks away from that fight with 70 grade striking. But take nothing away from Fialho. He’s still the same dude we thought he was. I have both graded identical, but Salikhov is 38 years old. More likely to regress. Fialho is more likely to show up improved. Fight could go either way here but it’s Fialho who should get his hand raised.
Chris’ Pick: Fialho by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fialho -125
Jack Della Maddalena vs Danny Roberts
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Danny Roberts
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Mike Perry and Michel Pereira.
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Ramazan Emeev and David Zawada.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Roberts did exactly what I thought he’d do against Francisco Trinaldo. He was able to keep most of the fight on the feet, but got out struck by 60 striker Trinaldo. Della Maddalena also went out and did what I expected him to do, knock Emeev out, albeit sooner than I thought. Emeev also had Della Maddalena in a bit of troube with a darce choke early, but once Della Maddalena got out, he took advantage of Emeev’s arms being gassed from squeezing. Bit of a mismatch to me here. Looks like Della Maddalena wanted a fight and Roberts is the only one who said yes.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Della Maddalena -450
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Charles Johnson
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to Jeff Molina, a well rounded 19-7 fighter. and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jerome Rivera. Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I might be going against the narrative but despite the boring fight, Johnson was really impressive. Mokaev has proven to have 65 grappling. Not a 70 tool yet as he struggled with Malcolm Gordon at times in their matchup. Johnson was taken down repeatedly and controlled most of the fight by Mokaev, but he repeatedly got up and didn’t gas out. 60 wrestling for me. I thought the striking of Zhumagulov and Jeff Molina were both 60’s going into their fight, but Molina did land more strikes. But I think that’s a result of Molina’s striking being a 65. I know for sure Manel Kape has 65 striking and Zhumagulov’s striking was definitely a 60 in that one. This fight could actually be similar to Johnson vs Mokaev in that Zhumagulov will do what it takes to win and doesn’t care if the fight is boring. Zhumagulov has the same 65 wrestling Mokaev has. Let’s see if Johnson can make any adjustments.
Chris’ Pick: Zhumagulov by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zhumagulov -135
Jennifer Maia vs Maryna Moroz
- Jennifer Maia
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis, and Roxanne Modafferi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Maryna Moroz
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Mariya Agapova and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Total coin flip fight. I have both fighters graded close to identical. Only difference is Maia is more of a grappler, Moroz more of a wrestler. Moroz proved her wrestling is a legit 65 by being able to take down and control 55 grappler Agapova. And Moroz was so dominant, it’s possible it could be a 70 tool. I think Maia is at her ceiling, she’s had so many pro fights, despite only being 33 years old. Her skills have been flat for awhile and they were reaffirmed when she got out classed by Manon Fiorot. Fight could go either way, but I think Moroz has more runway to get better and is a lot more likely to show up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Moroz by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Moroz -125
Vince Morales vs Miles Johns
- Vince Morales
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Miles Johns
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Morales has shown improvement in his last few fights, but he came up a bit short last time out to Jonathan Martinez. That fight reaffirmed his tools. Got out struck by Martinez. Despite the lackluster record, Johnson’s tools are real. His fight with Jack Cartwright on the Contender was really close. Back and forth. I thought he made a tactical error in deciding to wrestle Cartwright all fight as I thought Johnson has the better striking. But I did learn something and that’s that Johnson has the cardio to wrestle all 3 rounds if he has to. And he might have to do that here to beat Morales as the stand up would be close, but I see Johnson with an edge in the wrestling. Jose Johnson is out and in steps Johns on about 2 weeks notice. Last time out, I thought Johns’ striking was a 60. Market disagreed with me as Johns closed as a -150 favorite. Castaneda won, by an arm triangle. But he won because Johns gassed out. Castaneda put on a heavy pace, had the cardio to keep his foot on the gas. But the story of the fight for me was that the striking was close to equal. I know Castaneda has 65 striking. So despite the loss, I’m upgrading Johns’ striking to a 65. Which should get it done against Morales who’s 8 fights into his UFC career and seems to have hit a ceiling in his development.
Chris’ Pick: Johns by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Johns -250
Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Brady Hiestand and Steve Garcia.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Kevin Natividad
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Majority decision win over Irwin Riviera.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
Turcios losing to Aiemann Zahabi had more to do with Zahabi leveling up than Turcios’ skills not being legit. For what it’s worth, I thought Zahabi should’ve been a -125 favorite, but the line closed with Turcios as a -200 favorite instead. So with Zahabi landing more shots 53 to 27, I’m confident I have Turcios graded accurately. Miles Johns’ striking has turned out to be better than I thought, so that means Natividad’s striking is also better than I thought. Yes, Natividad was knocked out in 50 seconds by Danaabatgerel in his last fight. It happens. And the two knockout losses in a row could show a pattern that his chin isn’t able to take as much damage, or maybe he needs to move up in weight. But on paper the skills are there and he should have no problem with Turcios.
Chris’ Pick: Natividad by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Natividad -325
Maria Oliveira vs Vanessa Demopoulos
- Maria Oliveira
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over Gloria de Paula.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Demopoulos’ last fight with Jinh Yu Frey was really interesting. I thought striking would be close to equal, but Frey would use her slightly better wrestling to grind out a win. Thought Frey should be favored at -150. Line closed with Frey at -225. And Frey did win the fight. But Demopoulos surprised me by out wrestling Frey. Demopoulos got a take down in the 1st round. Then in the 2nd and 3rd, was able to control Frey in the clinch along the fence for chunks of time. She clearly improved there so I’m upgrading her wrestling to a 65. Demopoulos’ striking is something I’m not sure about. I do think Frey has 60 striking. Frey did land more shots than Demopoulos, but not to the point where I’m going to down grade Vanessa’s striking. I’m going to leave it as a 60 for now, but it could be a 55. Oliveira vs de Paula could’ve gone either way. Grappling was equal. Striking was really close to equal 98 to 94 de Paula. That fight reaffirmed Oliveira’s tools for me. But her problem here is that Demopoulos is going to get some take downs and control Oliveira most of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Demopoulos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Demopoulos -175
Fernie Garcia vs Brady Hiestand
- Fernie Garcia
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Brady Hiestand
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 10-4 fighter. Split decision loss to Rickt Turcios.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Garcia proved to be a little bit better than I thought. I had him with 50 striking and wrestling going into the Journey Newson fight. But the striking was close to equal and Garcia was able to get up after being taken down. So I’m upgrading those tools to 55s, albeit with 45 power. Yes, he got that KO on the Contender, but he only has 1 knockout in his 10 career pro wins. Hiestand proved that he was more than a one dimensional wrestler in his close split decision loss to Ricky Turcios. Also showed he could wrestle for all 3 rounds without running out of gas. Striking with Turcios was close to equal but I thought Hiestand won the fight with edging Turcios out in the wrestling. Close fight here, but I think Hiestand has more power and will also probably mix in some take downs to get the decision.
Chris’ Pick: Hiestand by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hiestand -150
Natalia Silva vs Tereza Bleda
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Tereza Bleda
- Age: 20
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It was one of the most surprising and lopsided upsets I’ve seen in awhile. Jasudavicius came in as a -230 favorite. She was coming off a surprising upset win of her own. She impressively was able to take down 55 wrestler Kay Hansen and controlled her most of their fight. Jasudavicius was supposed to use her wrestling to win here too. But Silva’s resume is unique. Yes, the 13-5-1 record isn’t shiny or spotless. But for context, 4 losses and 1 draw happened when she fought as an 18 year old and 19 year old. Her last lost? She fought UFC contender Marina Rodriguez as a 20 year old and lost. And now coming in against Jasudavicius, she hadn’t fought anyone in 3 years. So no one was expecting the beat down we were about to see because their was no film anywhere with Silva looking this good. Jasudavicius would go 0 for 6 with take downs. But most stunning is that Silva out struck Jasudavicius 85 to 27, giving her 65 striking. Bleda’s fight with Nayara Maia went as expected. Bleda was able to take Maia down repeatedly and kept her there almost the whole fight. The interesting question is how good is Bleda’s striking. Her Contender fight wasn’t on the feet for that long, but when it was, Bleda out struck Maia 19 to 8, over all 3 rounds. So it’s possible Bleda has 65 striking. Really close fight. Not much data to go off of from either.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -135