Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Michelle Waterson and Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The line closed with Rodriguez as a -290 favorite over Yan, but the fight ended up being a lot closer because Yan had elevated her striking to a 70. Rodriguez has more power and her cardio helped her to land more in the 3rd round. That’s why she won. I’ve been debating the past few fights, going back and forth over how good Lemos’ striking is. Is it a 65 or a 70. She fought 65 striker Hill. Striking was close to equal. Looks like a 65. Then she takes on 70 striker Jessica Andrade. And up until the standing arm triangle choke that ended the fight, Lemos had out struck Andrade 7 to 3. Hmmm. And she looked good doing it, landing heavy leg kicks. So I thought okay, small sample, but Lemos probably got better. 70 striking. Then Lemos fights Waterson. I was very confident in Lemos. Market closed with Lemos as a -300 favorite. I agreed with that. I know Waterson has 65 striking. No better than that. Well, Lemos submitted Waterson with a guillotine. Which is great for her. But let’s look at the striking numbers. Striking was close to equal. Matter of fact, Waterson did land more strikes 27 to 20. So once and for all, at least for now, I’m grading Lemos’ striking a 65. And it turns out Rodriguez fought Waterson last year, not too long ago. How’d the striking go between those two? Rodriguez out struck her 106 to 74. Uh oh. So you can clearly see Rodriguez’s striking is on another tier.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -250
Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Neil Magny
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 22-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Jingliang Li
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
It’s hard to take anything out of the craziness of UFC 279. Rodriguez did beat Li was split decision, but he also weighed in 10 lbs heavier. So I’m going to leave Rodriguez’s grades as is. I genuinely thought Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov would be a close fight. And after seeing Rakhmonov dominate Magny, I’m not sure if it had more to do with Rakhmonov being better than I realized or Magny regressing. Probably a little bit of both. For now, I’m downgrading Magny’s wrestling to a 65. Basically this fight is Rodriguez’s power vs Magny’s cardio. But Magny is only 4 months removed from that beat down and I think he’s coming back too quick.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -175
Chase Sherman vs Josh Parisian
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked Alan Baudot, out a 6-1 striker, and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Let’s not get it twisted here. Parisian knocked Baudot out because Baudot gassed out towards the end of the 1st round. Parisian was knocked down. He was in trouble. Baudot went for the finish. Didn’t get it. But. I does look like the market was right. I had Baudot with 65 striking and Parisian with 55 striking. And strikes in the 1st round turned out to be close to equal, so both likely have 60 grade striking, which is in line with how the line closed as a near pick em. I also noticed Parisian’s wrestling did improve a tick to a 55. I was pretty sure that Vanderaa had 65 striking. He took on Andrei Arlovski and striking was about equal. But then in Sherman’s last fight with Vanderaa, he out strikes him 134 to 108. Now, that probably means Vanderaa’s striking might be more like a 60, but the important thing is it makes me very confident Sherman’s striking is a 65. Which means I see his striking as a tier above Parisian’s. All Sherman has to do is not gas out like Baudot.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Sherman -250
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nathan Maness
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nathan Maness
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders. Knocked Tony Gravely, out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ulanbekov lost his last fight, but it was super close. Ulanbekov did win the grappling exchanges with almost 5 minutes of control vs Elliott having only 52 seconds of control time. Striking was close to equal but the judges gave it to Elliott because his strikes appeared to land with more power. No shame in Maness losing to Umar Nurmagomedov. Umar looks like a possible future champion. But after rewatching Maness’ fight with Gravely, I’m upgrading his power to a 55. But the bottom line is if Gravely, who has 65 wrestling, was able to take him down and control him for a bit, you know Ulanbekov will be able to do even better.
Chris’ Pick: Ulanbekov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ulanbekov -500
Mark O Madsen vs Grant Dawson
- Mark O. Madsen
- Age: 38
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-4 striker. Beat Vinc Pichel, Austin Hubbard, and a well rounded 12-4 fighter. Split decision over Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-0-1
- Key draws: fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Jared Gordon and Michael Trizano. Beat Nad Narimani.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Madsen has the wrestling, but he’s missing an important ingredient, which is cardio. He’s got an impressive 12-0 pro record, but the last 2 wins have been of the very close split decision type. And over guys his age, Guida and Pichel. Madsen had better wrestling than Pichel, but in the second half of the fight, struggled to impose it, even got taken down himself at the end of the 2nd round. His striking also proved to be a 60. I was very confident going into Dawson’s fight with Gordon that his grappling was only a 65. Some of the market disagreed and thought Dawson’s grappling was a 70 as the line closed with Dawson as a -190 favorite. Well, either way, after his first fight with American Top Team, his grappling is officially a 70 as he was able to take down and control 60 wrestler Gordon for the majority of the fight. Despite the improvement in his grappling, I didn’t see improvement in his striking. I still have the tool graded a 60 and based on shots landed with Gordon being close to equal. Really close fight. I like Dawson’s cardio better. And it’s more likely that Dawson shows up with improved striking than Madsen.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dawson -175
Darrick Minner vs Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
- Darrick Minner
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 26-13
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Laramie, a 10-3 grappler, a 13-4 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Charles Rosa and an 11-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-7
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler. Beat TJ Brown and Sean Soriano.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Minner’s last fight with Ryan Hall was close. Minner out struck Hall 11 to 4 in the 1st round but decided to grapple the rest of the fight, in which Hall got the better of it. Although there is a slight chance Minner’s grappling could be a 65. But I’m confident in Minner’s striking being a 60. I wasn’t the only one surprised by Shayilan’s last fight. I thought 60 wrestler Brown should’ve been a -300 favorite. Market closed with him as a -205 favorite. We all thought wrestling would be close to equal but Brown would have better striking. Well, Shayilan showed up improved. Got the better of the wrestling. And the striking was close to equal. Really close fight between these two. And I actually think most of the fight will play out on the ground with Shayilan having the wrestling to take Minner down and Minner thinking he can get a submission off his back. He might be able to, but it’s more likely Shayilan wins a close decision.
Chris’ Pick: Shayilan by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Shayilan -135
Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Shanna Young
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 125 lbs. 1-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gina Mazany. Split decision over Pam Sorenson.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite getting dominated by phenom Erin Blanchfield, Maverick reaffrimed her tools in her last fight with Mazo. She took 55 wrestler Mazo down repeatedly until she got the submission. Young is interesting though. I had her with 55 striking and wrestling. But that was at 135 lbs. She made her flyweight debut against Gina Mazany and blew me away. I thought Mazany would have the better wrestling, but instead all Young needed was one take down to get mount and KO Mazany on the ground. And the striking with 60 striker Mazany was close to equal. I was so impressed, it’s possible Young’s wrestling could be a 65. Not that it will matter in this fight with Maverick. I expect this to be a stand up fight. And Young has improved a ton, but Maverick is a big, big step up in competition and her striking just isn’t on the same level.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Maverick -300
Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Benito Lopez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Vince Morales. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’m still not entirely sure how Bautista was able to submit Kelleher so easily within a few minutes. I thought Kelleher had 65 grappling, but after that fight, it’s likely a 60. In any case, that was for sure the best version of Bautista we’ve seen yet. He improved. And I’ve seen a lot of Morales in the UFC. I know how skilled he is, which is helpful because that was Lopez’s last fight. Over 3 years ago. Yeah, that’s right. Lopez hasn’t fought since July 2019. Fight with Morales was close. I thought Morales won. Striking was close to equal but Morales had more power. Really tough come back opponent for Lopez as Bautista has been on a roll. And yes, there’s a decent chance that Lopez shows up improved, being that it’s been over 3 years, but I pick fights based on production and not projection. And on paper, Bautista should win with his grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Bautista by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Bautista -200
Polyana Viana vs Jinh Yu Frey
- Polyana Viana
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas back in 2015. Submitted Mallory Martin and Emily Whitmire.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above (55)
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision losses to Vanessa Demopoulos and Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat Ashley Yoder, Gloria de Paula, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Viana’s last fight with Tabatha Ricci went as expected. It was really close. Viana landed a few more shots, with more power. But Ricci mixed in take downs and I thought Viana was too content to play the jiu jitsu game off her back. I had thought there was a chance that Vanessa Demopoulos’ striking was a 55 instead of a 60. Her fight with Frey showed that was the case. And the numbers show that Frey leveled up her striking to a 60 grade. Should be a close fight. Viana has a little more power but because there’s not too many KO’s at 115 lbs, Frey should be able to win this fight on points.
Chris’ Pick: Frey by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Frey -175
Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liuvik Sholinian
- Johnny Munoz Jr
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Liudvik Sholinian
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-2-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Vince Cachero and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Sholinian’s 60 wrestling is real. He got taken down by 65 wrestler Jack Shore and was able to get back up repeatedly, but he really got wiped out in the stand up. I’m confident Shore has 65 striking and he out struck Sholinian 80 to 16. Total landslide. It’s possible Sholinian has 45 striking. Munoz Jr got knocked out in his last fight by Tony Gravely in about a minute but those things happen sometimes. I’m still confident in where I have Munoz Jr graded based on what he did against Nate Maness. The UFC matched these guys up to see what they can do in the stand up. And I just see Munoz Jr as being further along. And also having the better wrestling in his back pocket if he needs to use it.
Chris’ Pick: Munoz Jr by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Munoz Jr -225
Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Carlos Candelario
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I still have no idea why the market closed with Hadley a -195 favorite over Allan Nascimento. Not sure if it’s because they thought Hadley was way better or didn’t realize how good Nascimento is. In any case, it was an interesting fight because usually in a wrestler vs wrestler fight, you get kickboxing. But instead they decided to wrestle all fight and Nascimento got the better of it. Showed that Hadley’s wrestling is just a 60 for now. And they didn’t strike much, but so I’m going to leave Hadley’s striking grade as a 55. Candelario’s opponent Tatsuro Taira came into the fight as a -300 favorite. Lot of hype. Taira got the better of the striking in the 1st round, out landing by 13 to 5. But the next 2 rounds, they just wrestled, and it was back and forth. But I know how good Candelario is because of I how he looked against Victor Altamirano. Odds aren’t out yet, but I predict Hadley to be the favorite because he has a lot more hype than Candelario. But I’m picking Candelario because I see him as the better striking and should have the wrestling and cardio to keep the fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Candelario by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Candelario -175
Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal
- Ramona Pascual
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Tamires Vidal
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Vidal has a win over UFC fighter Ailin Perez but it’s of the DQ variety. Perez hit Vidal with some illegal knees. Which is a shame because Perez was on her way to winning that fight. Perez proved she has 60 wrestling in her fight with Stephanie Egger. Striking with Perez and Vidal was close to equal. And Perez also showed 60 wrestling against Egger. Perez winning against Vidal has a lot to do with Perez having better cardio. They wrestled almost the whole fight and Vidal just gassed out towards the end. But I will acknowledge there’s a possibility that Vidal’s wrestling could be a 50. There were times when Pascual looked good against Joselyne Edwards. She was doing okay with her wrestling. And she knocked Edwards down at the end of the 1st round. But besides those two things, she got wiped out. Edwards out struck her by more than a 3 to 1 clip. I have to downgrade Pascual’s striking to a 50 because I know Edwards’ striking isn’t better than a 65. Pascual’s problem is that she just loads up for power shots. No combos. Against Vidal, Pascual will have a chance. She should have the better wrestling and could grind out a win here. But it’ll be close because while the fight is on the feet, Vidal will land a lot more.
Chris’ Pick: Vidal by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vidal -175