Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill
- Glover Teixeira
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 15-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Ryan Bader and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Jan Blachowicz, Ovince St. Preux, and Ion Cutelaba. Split decision over Nikita Krylov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute, and Ovince St Preux. Beat Thiago Santos and Darko Stosic.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Hill was finally tested in his last fight with perennial top 5 contender Santos. Surprisingly Santos decided to wrestle most of the fight. Not sure if Hill was expecting that. Santos really emptied the gas tank to utilize this strategy and hit empty in the 4th round. Santos wasn’t able to get anymore take downs and Hill picked Santos apart on the feet. Slight, small chance Hill’s wrestling could be a 65, but I doubt it. Very likely a 70 tool. Teixeira had a crazy up and down fight with Jiri Prochazka. Was about 30 seconds away from winning the fight, as I had him winning the 5th round and would’ve had him winning 3 rounds to 2 rounds if they had gone to a decision. But Teixeira made a mistake leaving his neck out and Prochazka got his arm under Glover’s neck. The line closed with Prochazka as a -200 favorite, meaning the market thought Prochazka would be able to keep the fight on the feet and out strike Teixeira. But instead, the striking was close to equal and Teixeira repeated took Prochazka down. Clearly a case of Prochazka being a tad over rated vs Teixeira leveing up at 43 years old. In my opinion, Hill looks like the guy who could be champion at 205 lbs for awhile. Ever since he unlocked more power in his hands, he’s been on this trajectory. I think he learned lessons in his fight with Paul Craig, should be disciplined to not mess with Teixeira on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hill -275
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Moreno and Alex Pantoja.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-3-2
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Kai Kara France and Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
It was that second Figueiredo vs Moreno fight that messed everyone up. We were all wondering what happened? Did Moreno level up? For me, I didn’t completely get that answer until Moreno fought Kara France. In hindsight, that second Figueiredo vs Moreno fight was the outlier. Figueiredo must’ve had a horrible weight cut or something like that. Because Figueiredo bounced back to his normal self in their third fight. The only thing I wasn’t sure of, I had elevated Moreno’s grappling to a 75 due to their second fight. But in the third fight, the grappling was equal. And clinching it, I know Kara France’s wrestling is only a 70, and Moreno wasn’t able to take Kara France down. So once and for all, Moreno’s got 70 grapping. Figueiredo has 70 grappling. Which makes this fight as close to a coin flip as possible. But I’m giving an ever so slight edge to Moreno because if Figueiredo could have a bad weight cut once, that same scenario could happen again. At 34 years of age, his body might be getting to a point where he’s not able to cut the weight anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Moreno by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Moreno -125
Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-2 at 170 lbs. 13-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Neil Magny
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 23-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Submitted Daniel Rodriguez. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The promotion for this fight is saying things like Magny is back. Magny comes off an ugly loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov and shows he’s back. Not exactly true if you watched his fight with Rodriguez. It was really close. Striking was close to equal, but Rodriguez did land more. Wrestling was close to equal. But midway through the 3rd round, Rodriguez started to run out of gas and Magny capitalized on it. Took Rodriguez down, got him in a choke. Maybe this version of Magny wouldn’t have gotten so easily dominated by Rakhmonov, I’ll give him that. The market showed just how much star power Khamzat Chimaev has as he closed as a -550 favorite over Burns. Just a crazy line, built on hype. Fight ended up being very close. Wrestling/grappling close to equal. Same with striking, although Burns did land more 99 to 87. To me, the fight showed that Chimaev isn’t quite on the level the market thought he was. Or could it be that maybe Burns has leveled up? Probably more of the former. Something I am sure about is that Burns’ power will be too much for Magny. Magny could excel towards the end of the fight with his pace and cardio, but I don’t think Magny will make it that far.
Chris’ Pick: Burns by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Burns -350
Jessica Andrade vs Lauren Murphy
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lauren Murphy
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 125 lbs. 6-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Miehsa Tate, Joanne Wood, and Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
It’s not often a fighter who’s 39 years old, coming off a championship loss, has their comeback fight, and shows up improved. But that’s what happened with Murphy as she showed 70 wrestling against Tate. Much closer fight than what the commentators were making it out to be though. Striking was very close to equal, 68 to 67 Murphy. This is actually a tough fight for Andrade. It might not seem like it on the surface because there’s such a big age gap. But Andrade has been bouncing back and forth between 115 lbs and 125 lbs and the reality is that Valentina Shevchenko, with her 75 wrestling, proved that Andrade isn’t the same at 125 lbs. She has 65 wrestling at that weight class. 70 wrestling at 115 lbs. And with Murphy just proving she has 70 wrestling, it’s very likely Murphy will be able to take her down the same way. And we’ve seen Andrade can get tired. And we’ve seen that Murphy has the cardio to wrestle all 15 minutes. Odds aren’t out yet, I expect Andrade to be favored, but I’m picking Murphy because of the take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Andrade -125
Johnny Walker vs Paul Craig
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Paul Craig
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamahal Hill and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Craig has improved his striking to a 65. It showed against Volkan Oezdemir. Craig lost, but wasn’t blown out on shots landed, 50-32. Oezdemir had the wrestling to stay out of the grappling danger Craig presented. I should’ve rewatched Walker vs Jamahal Hill. It doesn’t last long, but we see Walker briefly grapple with Hill and he doesn’t do terrible. Walker almost looked equal to Hill. Which is notable, considering Hill has 70 wrestling. Fast forward to Walker vs Cutelaba. And I’m not the only one sleeping on Walker’s grappling as Cutelaba came in as a -205 favorite. Cutelaba takes Walker down. That was expected. But Cutelaba goes for an armbar, loses position and Walker takes his back. Cutelaba had plenty of time to get way, but couldn’t. It’s possible I’m over rating Walker here a bit, but I’m going out on a limb and grading his grappling a 70. What he did to Cutelaba was that impressive. That said, I’m not sure if Walker’s cardio and efficiency has gotten better. Walker should win, but I can see both extremes happening. Walker wins easy, knocking Craig out or Walker gasses out, gets caught in a Craig submission.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Walker -200
Shogun Rua vs Ihor Potieria
- Shogun Rua
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 11-11-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tyson Pedro. Split decisions over Corey Anderson in 2016 and Lil’ Nog.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 19-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
The story of Potieria’s last fight with Nicolae Negumereanu wasn’t that Potieria got out classed. It was that Potieria had an adrenaline dump and gassed out midway through the fight. He had no chance on an empty tank. While the fight did last, striking was close to equal. Shogun’s last fight with St Preux was very lackluster. Looked like a sparing match. Now Shogun returns for his retirement fight and guys in their final fight usually don’t go well. It’s a winnable fight for Shogun if he can survive the early storm, but it’s very likely Shogun shows up with regressed skills.
Chris’ Pick: Potieria by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Potieria -135
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Rodrigues vs Njokuani was fun while it lasted. Fight went exactly how I thought, minus Njokuani was able to get back up after being taken down. I was probably under rating Ferreira a bit when he came into his Contender fight. Had him at 55 tools. Market disagreed with me. I thought his opponent had 60 striking. And the strikes landed were close to equal. So I’m bumping Ferreira up to having 60 tools, although, I’ll admit, I haven’t seen enough of Ferreira to be super confident. What I am confident in though is the odds of Ferreira’s striking being a 65 is very unlikely. Which means I see Rodrigues having success on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -275
Melquizael Costa vs Thiago Moises
- Melquizael Costa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 19-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Christos Giagos and Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t that impressed when I first saw Costa’s resume. He lost to a 10-2 grappler just last year. But I watched his last fight with a well rounded 12-5 fighter. And he looked better than I thought, particularly his striking, enough for me to give it a 60 grade. And also looking closer, 4 of his 5 losses happened when he was 21 years old and younger. So Costa could have a future. Decent prospect. But if he had problems with that 10-2 grappler, he’s definitely going to have problems with Moises, especially on less than 2 week’s notice.
Chris’ Pick: Moises by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Moises -250
Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Mounir Lazzez
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker. Beat Ange Loosa and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lazzez’s last fight with Loosa went as expected, Lazzez having the better stand up. Not too sure yet what to make of Bonfim. I had his Contender opponent with 55 striking. Maybe the tool is a 60. It probably is. I had Bonfim’s striking as a 60 going in and striking turned out to be close to equal. His grappling though is the biggest question mark. Bofim took his opponent down and got the Von Flue choke pretty quick. I’m going to grade the tool a 65 for now, but it could be a 60. Really close coin flip fight. Slight edge to Bonfim because of a potential grappling advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Bonfim -150
Jailton Almeida vs Shamil Abdurakhimov
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques. Submitted Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Shamil Abdurakhimov
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ok. I’m going to reluctantly do this. Very, very rare for me to pass out 75 grades to fighters with only 4 wins in the UFC. But at worst,Turkalj’s wrestling is a 60. No way it’s worse than that.. And there wasn’t a second of that fight that Almeida wasn’t dominating. I thought his wrestling tool was a 65, but he normally fights at 205 lbs. Almeida is a full blown heavyweight now. And it’s also possible Almeida has 70 striking, but we rarely see it. I’m tempted to grade Abdurakhimov’s striking a 70. He did out land 65-70 striker Sergey Pavlovich 17 to 6. But Pavlovich did knock him out in 4 minutes. And what other data do we have? Abdurakhimov close to equal with 65 striker Chris Daukaus. Last fight before? Abdurakhimov showing his wrestling is a 60 because Blaydes used his 70 wrestling to take him down and the fight never really played out on the feet. Abdurakhimov is 41 years old and very inactive. He’s only fought 6 times in the last 6 years. What are the odds that his striking is a 70 or that his wrestling has improved? Not likely.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -700
Cody Stamann vs Luan Lacerda
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Alejandro Perez and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Luan Lacerda
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Raulian Paiva, a 9-2 striker, a 5-2 striker, a 9-3 grappler, and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
That submission win over Paiva looks very shiny. Immediately gets your attention. I watched Lacerda take on a 9-2 striker who I thought had 55 wrestling. Looking at Lacerda’s resume, I thought he might have 65 grappling. And he still might. But I didn’t see it in Lacerda’s last fight. He struggled to get take downs in the 1st round. Happened to get his opponents back in a leg lock transition. I think his grappling is closer to a 60 at this point. Stamann was on a 3 fight losing streak until he got matched up with Wineland. Showed him no respect. Blitzed him. Got his very first UFC KO in 59 seconds. Has Stamann unlocked more power in his hands? We’ll see. Clearly Lacerda is a good prospect and it looks like this match up was made to see what he can do on the feet. Because he’s not going to be able to take Stamann down. And based on what I saw in Lacerda’s last fight, Stamann should be able to out strike him.
Chris’ Pick: Stamann by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stamann -225
Terrance McKinney vs Ismael Bonfim
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ismael Bonfim
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-4 wrestler and a 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 27-3 wrestler, a 6-1 grappler, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m not the only one who thought Nariman Abbasov would beat Bonfim as Abbasov opened as a -200 favorite. But even at close, Abbasov was still favored at -125. And Abbasov is a very legit fighter, I watched him in some high level fights outside the UFC. And he’s very likely to be signed by the UFC sometime in the future. All that said, Bonfim showed up with even better tools than Abbasov had. Bonfim out struck him 77 to 45. I don’t do this that often, but Bonfim will be making his UFC debut and I already have his striking as a 70 tool based on what he did to Abbasov. McKinney did what was expected of him as a -850 favorite over Gonzalez, getting another 1st round finish. Not sure if he has the cardio for his grappling to look this good for 15-25 minutes, but if he does, his grappling could be as high as a 75 tool. Such a good fight here. Two likely title contenders. If the fight goes all 15 minutes, then Bonfim will likely win, likely has the better cardio, would likely land more shots. But I have to pick McKinney because he has two legit paths to finish the fight before the 15 minutes is up.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: McKinney -175
Warlley Alves vs Nicolas Dalby
- Warlley Alves
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Jeremiah Wells. Lost to Bryan Barberena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mounir Lazzez. Submitted Colby Covington in 2015.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nicholas Dalby
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Dalby closed as a -210 favorite over Silva. Probably because the market thought Silva’s striking was a 55 and Dalby would land more. But the striking was a little closer than people thought with the 1st and 3rd round’s striking numbers being close to equal. Although I did get clarity in that fight that Dalby’s wrestling once and for all, at least for now is a 60. Alves might have gotten flattened by Jeremiah Wells last time out, but it was an even fight up to that point. Striking and grappling were even. And Wells has proven in a couple other fights since then that he’s very legit. So Alves’ tools are still there. Close fight here. I like Alves because he has more power, but because of how durable Dalby is, this is likely going to the judges’ scorecards.
Chris’ Pick: Alves by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Alves -135
Josiane Nunes vs Zarah Fairn
- Josiane Nunes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bea Malecki, a 6-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler. Beat Ramona Pascual.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Zarah Fairn
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 6-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Even though Fairn was finished on the ground in a little over 3 minutes with Felicia Spencer, I did see improvements. It took more time and work for Spencer to get the take down vs how easy it was for Megan Anderson in Fairn’s UFC debut. Enough for me to upgrade Fairn’s wrestling to a 60. And the the shots landed with 65 striker Spencer were close to equal. Market had Nunes as a -225 favorite over Pascual. Probably because they thought she’d be able to stuff Pascual’s take downs, but that wasn’t the case. Pascual got 3 take downs and almost 4 minutes control time in the fight. But Nunes did out strike Pascual as expected. Fairn is just a level above Nunes in every way. She’s improved. She’s going to be bigger than Nunes. Will have a big reach advantage. And big time power. I could see Fairn eventually getting a title shot at 145 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Fairn by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fairn -250
Saimon Oliveira vs Daniel Marcos
- Saimon Oliveira
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 18-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler. Split decision win over a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Daniel Marcos
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Marcos hadn’t fought in nearly 3 years when he arrived on the Contender. No one knew what to expect but turns out he got better. Almost knocked his opponent out in the 1st, but because he’s durable, Marcos had to settle for the decision. Tony Gravely, for me, was a great opponent to see Oliveira up against. Because I’ve seen Gravely enough to know how good he is. 55 striking. 65 wrestling. He won mostly with take downs, defending submissions, having the cardio to rinse and repeat. But the fight did reveal that even though Oliveira prefers to use his grappling, his striking is a 55. This fight could go either way. I could totally see Oliveira getting his trademark guillotine deep and getting a submission win. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. But the more likely outcome is that Marcos is able to get back up when taken down, and will stay out of trouble long enough to KO Oliveira.
Chris’ Pick: Marcos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Marcos -125