Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 17-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Something dramatic happened in Spivac’s last fight with Sakai, albeit in a small sample size. But before I get into, let’s rewind a couple fights. Spivac vs Tom Aspinall. Aspinall out struck Spivac 7 to 0. Knocked Spivac out. Then Spivac vs Greg Hardy. Spivac got the ground and pound TKO win, but when they were on the feet, Hardy out landed him 7-0. So Spivac is looking like a one dimensional grappler. Okay, let’s look at Sakai. I’m pretty sure he has 70 striking. But very confident the tool has a floor of a 65, it’s no worse than that. Again, small sample, it is heavyweights, but Spivac out struck Sakai 9 to 2. That’s a dramatic improvement. Enough for me to elevate his striking grade to a 65. And with how dominant he was in controlling Hardy and Sakai, it’s possible his grappling is a 75, but I’m keeping it as a 70 for now. Lewis’ last loss has a bit on an asterisk. I do think the ref stopped it a bit early, although it’s very possible, if not likely Sergei Pavlovich still would’ve knocked him out. Pavlovich out struck Lewis 14 to 4, so I do think Pavlovich has 70 striking after all. Lewis has lost 3 of his last 4, but it’s been against guys with 70 striking or better. Spivac though is a different kind of threat. He has some of the best cardio at heavyweight. And Lewis has some of the worst cardio at heavyweight. I see him taking Lewis down repeatedly until Lewis has no gas left. Spivac will win by submission, but it’ll be his pressure, pace, and cardio that win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Spivac -175
Da Un Jung vs Devin Clark
- Da Un Jung
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Devin Clark
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight. Beat Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not sure if the market thought Azamat Murzakanov had 60 striking or if they thought Clark had improved his striking to a 65, but either way, the line closed at close to a pick em. But Clark’s skills have been stalled for awhile now and the Murzakanov fight proved that to be the case. He’s still young for a light heavyweight, but he’s now got 14 UFC fights. He could be at his ceiling. Jung got knocked out by Dustin Jacoby in his last fight, but that happens. Strikes were 14 to 14 leading up to the KO. And Clark isn’t a knockout threat, which helps too. I really like Jung to bounce back here.
Chris’ Pick: Jung by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jung -400
Marcin Tybura vs Blagoi Ivanov
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac. Majority decision over Alexandr Romanov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Blagoi Ivanov
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis.
- Key Wins: Beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Ben Rothwell, and Tai Tuivasa
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ivanov’s last fight with Rogerio de Lima was a bit dull, but was useful in reaffirming his tools. So Alexandr Romanov, he was the rightful -330 favorite against Tybura. That is, if you’re looking at what the odds should be for the 1st round. I knew watching Romanov fight that he hasn’t had respect for his opponents because he empties the gas tank in the 1st round to get the early finish. He tried to do it again with Tybura. Couldn’t get the finish and then Tybura took over in the 2nd round. Big upset to the book makers, but I wasn’t surprised. Both these guys are similar fighters, but I think Tybura has the better wrestling and cardio to edge it out.
Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tybura -135
Doo Ho Choi vs Kyle Nelson
- Doo Ho Choi
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thiago Tavares and Sam Siscilia.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Nelson had a really interesting fight with Jai Herbert last time out. Herbert closed as a -400 favorite, but seemed really gun shy, coming off getting knocked out by Ilia Topuria. Nelson out struck him 12 to 3 in the 1st round and it seemed Herbert preferred to grapple the rest of the fight, won a close decision. I had Nelson with 55 striking going in. And was confident in Herbert’s striking being a 65. Not entirely sure whether Herbert has regressed and won’t be the same or if Nelson got lots better. Either way, I’m comfortable bumping his striking up to a 60. Choi’s last fight was over 3 years ago, against potential contender Charles Jourdain, back when Jourdain had 65 striking. What’s interesting is striking was close to equal in the 1st round. But Jourdain made some adjustments in the 2nd and took over, landing more shots, then knocking Choi out. I have Choi’s striking as a 60, but who knows. I’m grading him off a fight back in 2019. Who knows what he looks like right now. I give Nelson a slight edge because I think he’ll be able to mix in some take downs. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Choi shows up really improved.
Chris’ Pick: Nelson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nelson -135
Adam Fugitt vs Yusaku Kinoshita
- Adam Fugitt
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Yusaku Kinoshita
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The market can be wrong sometimes, but most of the people are not dummies. I respect them. And Michael Morales closed as a monster -600 favorite against Fugitt. I disagreed, thought a fair price for Morales was -175. And I turned out to be right. Fight was really close going into the 3rd round. Then Morales got the KO. So was I right about Morales? Or is Fugitt much better than people thought? I’m starting to think it’s more of the latter? I think I’m good at what I do, but I really should respect the -600 price that Morales had. I mean, it’s possible Morales isn’t as good, but more likely Fugitt is better than we thought. So I’m bumping his striking up to a 60 and wrestling up to a 65. Kinoshita took on a 5-0 striker on the Contender and reaffirmed who I thought he was. Didn’t see any of his wrestling, but I’m pretty sure it’s a 55. Kinoshita is the big name prospect here, but based on the numbers and what I’ve seen, Fugitt’s wrestling should be the difference maker.
Chris’ Pick: Fugitt by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fugitt -175
Jeka Saragih vs Anshul Jubli
- Jeka Saragih
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Anshul Jubli
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-0 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Kyung Pyo Kim closed as a -190 favorite over Jubli. Both the market and myself agreed, I had Jubli with 50 striking. But the shots landed were close to equal and Jubli squeaked out a split decision win. I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Saragih’s last fight with Won Bin Ki. Because Ki came into the fight as a -350 favorite. Which is pure insanity. Just because he knocked out Jinnosuke Kashimura? Pure insanity. Anyway, striking was close to equal before Saragih knocked him out. I feel like I got a better read on Saragih’s skills in the Pawan Maan fight. More of a sample size and Maan is more of a known commodity. Really close fight here, but I give Saragih an edge for having a power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Saragih by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Saragih -125
Zha Yi vs Jeong Yeong Lee
- Zha Yi
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 21-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 24-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Split decision wins over a 13-5 striker and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jeong Yeong Lee
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 grappler and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Zha pulled the upset in his first Road to UFC fight, but that could’ve been because his opponent got hurt. He was next matched up Koyomi Matsushima, who I’m fairly confident tops out at 50 striking and 55 wrestling. Strikes and grappling in the fight were close to equal. It’s hard to get an exact handle on where Lee’s skills are at as his last 3 fights have lasted less than 2 minutes combined. Very small sample. I don’t think Zha will be able to get the fight to the ground. On the feet, Lee should be too explosive. My only concern is Lee blitzes too hard for the finish in the 1st round. Because if he doesn’t get it, he could gas out.
Chris’ Pick: Lee by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lee -325
Toshiomi Kazama vs Rinya Nakamura
- Toshiomi Kazama
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-2 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Rinya Nakamura
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out a 9-2 grappler. Beat a 23-6 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Turns out Kazama has wrestling. And I wasn’t the only one surprised. Kazama’s opponent closed as a -225 favorite. I had Kazama with 50 tools coming in. The striking was a 50, but he had the cardio to wrestle almost the whole fight. Nakamura is probably the biggest stand out from the Road to UFC series. Two very impressive wins. And if you watch his last win, a KO over a 9-2-2 grappler, it looks Nakamura has high level striking. But I had the opponent’s striking as a 50 tool going in, definitely not any better than a 55. And Nakamura actually got out struck 16 to 15. So even though Nakamura got the knockout, he got touched up too. I expect Nakamura to win on the feet here too.
Chris’ Pick: Nakamura by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nakamura -300
Seung Guk Choi vs Hyun Sung Park
- Seung Guk Choi
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key WIns: Beat an 8-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Hyun Sung Park
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Submitted an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’ve seen enough from Choi’s two UFC fights to be decently confident in where I’ve graded him. I had Park’s striking pegged as a 60 until his last UFC fight against Topnoi Kiwram. I thought Kiwram had 55 striking, maybe a 60. Probably a 60 because he blasted Park in the 1st round, knocked him down, out struck him 21 to 3. But Park got a take down and a couple minutes later, got a choke. I think these guy’s grappling cancels itself out. Fight will play out on the feet. I think Park edges it out, having more power.
Chris’ Pick: Park by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Park -125
Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm
- Ji Yeon Kim
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Joselyne Edwards.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Mandy Bohm
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I wasn’t too sure where to grade Bohm’s wrestling, but after her match with Leonardo Victoria, I can confirm it’s a 55. Her striking also turned out to be a 60. Kim’s tools were reaffirmed in her last fight with Joselyne Edwards. Really close loss. Against Bohm though, Kim is a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Kim by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kim -250
Jun Yong Park vs Dennis Tiuliulin
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joseph Holmes. Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision over Eryk Anders.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Pickett has a habit of really accelerating early in the fight, but slowing down as the fight goes on. He out struck Tiuliulin in the 1st round. Couldn’t get Tiuliulin out, and Tiuliulin started to take over half way through the fight. I was surprised when after the 1st round, the strikes between Park and Holmes were close to equal. But I think Holmes emptied most of the tank, didn’t conserve his energy. Because Park got him down in the 2nd round and he wasn’t able to get back up. I know for a fact that Holmes’ grappling is a 55, so I’m elevating Park’s wrestling to a 65. I really like Park here, I don’t think Tiuliulin poses much of a threat, maybe has a puncher’s chance if he elevates his striking to a 60. Other than that, Park should get take downs and have better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Park -450
Tatsuro Taira vs Jesus Aguilar
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted CJ Vergara and a 6-2 striker. Beat Carlos Candelario.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jesus Aguilar
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Edgar Chairez, an 11-1 striker, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Market had Aguilar’s opponent Erisson Ferreira a -165 favorite going in. I disagreed with it and I was right. Aguilar pulled the upset. But the first 2 rounds were very back and forth. They grappled almost the whole time and by the 3rd round, Ferreira was out of gas. I thought Ferreira had 50 wrestling, it’s probably closer to a 55. Thus, I’m keeping Aguilar’s grappling a 60. When the line closed with Taira at -260, I disagreed a tad. Thought it was too heavy. Thought the market had him at that price because they thought his striking is a 65. But that’s not the case. The Vergara fight proved it’s a 60. However, Taira did show 65 grappling. The market thought Taira would be able to win the fight on the ground. Okay, that makes sense. And that’s how the fight played out. Vergara was able to get up a couple times, but after Taira got a take down in the 2nd round, it was all over. I think Aguilar will be able to resist Taira’s grappling better than Vergara did, but Taira is well rounded and will show off his striking here.
Chris’ Pick: Taira by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Taira -300