Ryan Spann vs Nikita Krylov
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson, Ed Herman, and Walt Harris. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux. Beat Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I thought Krylov’s fight with Magomed Anakalaev was an outlier. I couldn’t make sense over what I saw. Krylov actually out struck Ankalaev 45 to 29. Maybe Ankalaev’s striking was a 65 at that point, but still surprising. I know Krylov’s striking is just a 70 based on the numbers in his last fight with Oezdemir. In the Ankalaev fight, Krylov’s wrestling was a 70, but it’s gotten better since then. I know Oezdemir has 70 wrestling. Oezdemir showed it off when he stuffed every take down attempt from Paul Craig. So when Krylov was able to take Oezdemir down repeatedly, I have no choice but to upgrade his wrestling tool to a 75. The people that thought Reyes should’ve been a 2 to 1 favorite over Spann were crazy. I thought it was close to a pick em, thought Reyes should’ve been -125. And Spann proved me right in the fight. Didn’t last long. But the problem for Spann here with Krylov is going to be the wrestling. Spann fought Cutelaba not too long ago and Cutelaba was able to take him down a couple times. And hey, look at this crazy stat. All 5 of Spann’s last 5 fights have ended in the 1st round. The longest of the bunch went 3 minutes and 47 seconds. The blue print for Krylov here is obvious. Put Spann on the fence. Clinch. Take him down, tire him out. It’s a 5 round fight. Take him to deep water. And I think Krylov has the tools to execute the plan.
Chris’ Pick: Krylov by 4th round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Krylov -200
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat Uriah Hall and an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Even though Muniz had over 10 minutes of control time in the Hall fight, it wasn’t enough for me to keep the grappling tool as a 75. Muniz was content to control. He wasn’t passing guard like we usually see. Hall was able to stay out of trouble and even got up a couple times. And unfortunately, we continue to not see much striking from Muniz. I’m confident it’s at least a 60 but it could be a bit better. I think Muniz is more likely to win here. He could catch Allen in a submission. But it could be a close fight as Allen probably forces Muniz to stand and trade more than he’s used to.
Chris’ Pick: Muniz by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Muniz -125
Augusto Sakai vs Don’Tale Mayes
- Augusto Sakai
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Chase Sherman, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Blagoi Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Sakai’s fight with Spivac was supposed to tell us whether Sakai has gotten better on the ground. But the answer is negative. Spivac controlled him for most of the 1st round. And Sakai couldn’t get up anymore in the 2nd. Fortunately for him though, Mayes doesn’t present a threat on the ground and Sakai should be able to overwhelm Mayes with volume striking.
Chris’ Pick: Sakai by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sakai -250
Tatiana Suarez vs Montana de la Rosa
- Tatiana Suarez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Alexa Grasso. Knocked out Carla Esparza. Beat Nina Nunes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw,
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I don’t think there’s too much to take away from de la Rosa’s last fight with Maycee Barber. They wrestled and clinched along the fence almost all 15 minutes. It was back and forth. But Barber was landing more strikes in the clinch and that won her the fight. Suarez finally returns. First fight in close to 4 years. Last time we saw her, she was at flyweight. Took on Nunes, who turns out had better wrestling than I thought. Suarez was able to take her down and control her in the first 2 rounds, but seemed too gassed to get take downs in the 3rd round. But that was helpful because the 3rd round, we really got to see how Suarez could do on the feet and she showed 65 striking. Now she returns at a new weight class, at 125 lbs. Really tough matchup for de la Rosa, but the UFC thought maybe she’d have a chance using her grappling from her back. But I don’t think she will, Suarez will evade submission attempts and should cruise here. For what it’s worth, I think Suarez could win on the feet too.
Chris’ Pick: Suarez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Suarez -500
Mike Malott vs Yohan Lainesse
- Mike Malott
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-1-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Yohan Lainesse
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 12-4 grappler. Beat a 4-0 wrestler. Split decision over Darian Weeks.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I thought Lainesse lost his last fight to Weeks. Lainesse was out struck 41 to 22. And he was defending take downs most of the fight too. But it was that take down defense that makes me elevate his wrestling tool to a 60. Malott showed in his last fight he’s not just a grappler, he’s well rounded, and has power. He out struck Gall 21 to 12 and that’s enough for me to upgrade his striking to a 65. I see Malott getting another KO.
Chris’ Pick: Malott by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Malott -400
Trevor Peek vs Erick Gonzalez
- Trevor Peek
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Erick Gonzalez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Humberto Bandenay.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 7-0-1 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not sure if the market was higher on Malik Lewis than I was or if the market was lower on Peek than I was. Either way, Lewis closed as a 2 to 1 favorite. On the surface, it looked like Lewis was about to knock Peek out, couldn’t close the show. Gassed out and lost because of it. And he did lose because he gassed out. But before Lewis was close to finishing the fight, the numbers were close to equal. I had Peek coming into the Contender with 60 tools and I haven’t seen enough to move off that view. I’m pretty confident that Peek has the better striking and showed how durable he is. He should win here.
Chris’ Pick: Peek by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Peek -250
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Gabriella Fernandes
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Kay Hansen and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Gabriella Fernandes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’m pretty sure Fernandes has 55 striking, but based on what I saw in her last fight, the striking could be a 60. My issue with her is that she just got hit a lot from an opponent I think had 50 striking. Jasudavicius retains her tools despite Natalia Silva upsetting her. Silva even just reaffirmed her tools Tereza Bleda. I think Jasudavicius uses her wrestling to bounce back.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jasudavicius -200
Jordan Leavitt vs Victor Martinez
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Victor Martinez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 6-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Not the most impressive outing by Martinez on the Contender. Took on Jacob Rosales with a 13-6 pro record. Rosales closed as a -190 favorite. Market probably thought he had 55 striking. Shots landed in the 1st round were close to equal, but then Martinez took over in the 2nd and 3rd. But. It looked like Rosales broke his arm at the end of the 1st round and didn’t fire with his right hand anymore after that. So I think the most plausible grade for Martinez’s striking is a 55. But I think it could be a 50. After Pimblett’s fight with Jared Gordon, I think we learned once and for all where Pimblett’s skills are at. 65 striking. 60 grappling. What does that mean for Leavitt? Well, in their fight, they mostly wrestled. But when the fight was on the feet, shots landed were 9 to 4 in favor of Leavitt. Really small sample. I had Leavitt’s striking as a 55 going into that fight, but I can comfortably upgrade that tool to a 60 now. My grades of Martinez are admittedly shaky, but I highly, highly doubt his striking is a 60, Leavitt has two paths to win, he should get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Leavitt by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Leavitt -375
Ode Osbourne vs Charles Johnson
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
When a fighter comes in as such a heavy favorite like Osbourne did against Nam, and not only did Osbourne get knocked out, but the striking up to that point was close to equal. That shouldn’t have happened, according to the market. So what happened? Is Osbourne not as good as we thought, did Nam get better? Well, all respect to Nam, but he’s 39 years old. The odds of him showing up improved are slim. I actually thought the line was crazy and thought Nam should’ve been a -135 favorite. So I think people were just too high on Osbourne. Johnson steps in on less than 2 weeks notice. Shouldn’t be a problem with the type of cardio he has. And yeah, he knocked Flick out in the 1st round with ground and pound, but I’m not sure it was enough to elevate his wrestling to a 70. Could’ve been an early stoppage. Flick might have been trying to work his jiu-jitsu off his back still. But Johnson’s 60 striking was reaffirmed. This is a good matchup for Johnson. Osbourne has been more of a striker. I think Johnson is able to win with take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -200
Joe Solecki vs Carl Deaton
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jared Gordon.
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller. Majority decision over Alex da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Carl Deaton
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 17-5
- Key Wins: Beat Justin Jaynes.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Solecki closed as a big favorite over Alex da Silva because the market was under estimating da Silva, as da Silva hadn’t fought in a couple years. I thought da Silva should’ve been favored, thought da Silva would out strike him, but Solecki showed up with improved striking. That was the story of the fight for me. It’s a 65 tool now. Deaton did okay against UFC vet Jaynes. Striking was close to equal. Was able to get a few take downs with some top control. But Solecki’s striking will be the difference here. He’ll have a big advantage on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Solecki by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Solecki -450
Nurullo Aliev vs Rafael Alves
- Nurullo Aliev
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rafael Alves
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 20-11
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-3 striker, a well rounded 36-15 fighter, and a 4-1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marc Diakiese, a 5-1 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 14-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Beat a 16-5 grappler and a 17-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Aliev was supremely impressive on the Contender. I thought the market was a tad high on him at -540, but nope, he was priced right. Reminded me of Khabib. Took his opponent down once, ground and pound, and it was over a couple minutes later. Very high ceiling for this guy and his wrestling might be as high as a 70. I’m tempted to move Alves’ grappling up to a 60. He looks so good in the 1st round. But the problem is that he’s a one round guy. Empties the gas tank. And his grappling isn’t the same the rest of the fight. Aliev is such a horrible matchup for Alves because Aliev is exactly the type of fighter that thrives on tiring his opponents.
Chris’ Pick: Aliev by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Aliev -275
Hailey Cowan vs Ailin Perez
- Hailey Cowan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Split decision over an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I guess I was under rating Cowan a bit. I knew she was coming in with some hype, but I wasn’t as impressed with her on LFA and Invicta. But she did show up, edged out a close split decision win. Despite the loss to Stephanie Egger, I was still impressed by Perez. I thought Egger would really out class her on the ground, but Perez was able to get back up and even got a couple take downs of her own. They didn’t strike much, so I admit grading Perez’s striking a 60 has a bit of projection baked in, but I watched Perez before she got to the UFC and thought her striking was ahead of her wrestling, so I’m decently confident I have that tool graded right. And I think this fight comes down to Perez’s striking, unless Perez wants to just grapple the whole time like she did with Egger. But that would be a mistake as Cowan likely has better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Perez -200