Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya 2
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-1 at 185 lbs. 12-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m not sure if Adesanya elevated his wrestling to a 70 or not. He’s had 65 wrestling for awhile. Is it possible Pereira’s wrestling is a 60? It’s possible, but I doubt it. I think Adesanya retaining top control in the 3rd round was just Pereira taking the end of that round off, conserving energy. But I don’t think Adesanya’s wrestling matters too much. I think if Pereira is just more efficient with his striking, he won’t gas out as much as he did. I’m very confident Pereira gets it done again. We just saw it in the third Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman fight, whoever wins the last fight is very likely to win the rematch, especially an immediate rematch. I just think Pereira’s power will be too much and Adesanya knowing he’s been knocked out by Pereira twice could cause him to be gun shy.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pereira -200
Jorge Masvidal vs Gilbert Burns
- Jorge Masvidal
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-7 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Demian Maia, Ben Henderson, and Lorenz Larkin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, Darren Till, and Donald Cerrone.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 170 lbs. 13-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Masvidal vs Cobly Covington wasn’t the shutout I was expecting. I had a sneaky suspicion going in that Masvidal’s striking could be a 75 and that turned out to be the case. He landed more against 75 striker Kamaru Usman. And striking with Covington was close to equal. And despite losing the fight and being taken down repeatedly, Masvidal repeatedly got back up. He wasn’t smothered all fight. He made Covington stand and trade for chunks of time. I saw enough improvement that makes me think Masvidal has leveled up his wrestling. Now, the betting odds will be interesting here. Burns will likely be the favorite because seeing him dominate Magny is fresh in their minds. Masvidal hasn’t fought for awhile, lost two in a row. But Burns doesn’t have 75 grappling like Covington and Usman have. It’s a notch below. I think Masvidal stuffs most take down attempts. And we’ve seen Burns can be knocked out. I think Masvidal pulls off the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Masvidal by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Masvidal -175
Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez
- Rob Font
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Kelley, Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I still disagree with the judges on that Font vs Chito Vera fight. Yes, Vera landed more damage. But Font out struck Vera by a landslide, 256 to 133. That’s almost double the strikes. How can you say Font didn’t win the fight? Every strike does damage and hurts but I digress. Needless to say, Font retains the 75 striking. Despite how good Yanez looked knocking out Kelley in the 1st round, he just doesn’t have the same power that Font’s faced before in Jose Aldo and Vera. I see Font fighting smart, maybe putting more emphasis on defense, and winning on points.
Chris’ Pick: Font by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Font -375
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 170 lbs. 11-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Morono, Gunnar Nelson, and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ponzinibbio’s 70 striking was reaffirmed in the Morono fight. He out struck Morono 65 to 34. No shame in Holland’s loss to Stephen Thompson, who still has his 75 striking. This could be a really close, gritty fight. Smart thing for Ponzinibbio to do is to try to mix in some wrestling where he should have an advantage. But Holland has big time power. Ponzinibbio is really durable, so I don’t see a KO, but Holland will do a lot more damage and that should make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holland -125
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 18
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jay Perrin. Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Rodriguez went against 60 grappler Weems in his last fight. Grappling went back and forth until Weems stuck his neck out too long and Rodriguez was able to snatch it into an anaconda choke. Really impressive and it’s possible Rodriguez’s grappling could be a 65 now. It’s funny because Rosas Jr is only 18 years old, but his grappling was even better from where it was on the Contender. Perrin has legit 60 wrestling and Rosas Jr took him down, got the back, got the choke within a few minutes like it was no big deal. It’s very rare for a fighter to come into the UFC with this high a skill level, much less someone who’s only 18 years old. Rodriguez is a great prospect himself, but his wrestling is about the same level of Perrin’s. I see a similar fight playing out.
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rosas Jr -250
Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Curtis
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-6 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley, Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Curtis did knock Buckley out, but his striking is still a 65. Buckley was actually landing more shots, 48 to 29, up until the KO. Gastelum will be forever known as the guy who almost beat Israel Adesanya and gave him a close fight. And unfortunately, his skills have really plateaued since then. On paper, this should be a close fight. Gastelum should land more shots and he’s also proved to be durable. But the reality is that Gastelim has lost 5 of his last 6 fights. He hasn’t fought in close to 2 years. And Curtis’ career is on the upswing. Gastelum has too much regression risk for me.
Chris’ Pick: Curtis by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Curtis -125
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Luana Pinheiro
- Michelle Waterson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Pinheiro closed as a -400 favorite against Hughes. And it ended up being a much closer fight than everyone thought. Probably more because Hughes is better than people thought. Based on how well Waterson-Gomez did with Amanda Lemos, I think Waterson’s striking will be too much, too soon for Pinheiro.
Chris’ Pick: Waterson-Gomez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Waterson-Gomez -350
Gerald Meerschaert vs Joe Pyfer
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Joseph Pyfer
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite all of Amedovski’s losses, I know he has 60 striking from his fight with Jotko. So because Amedovski and Pyfer’s striking was close to equal, it reaffirms that Pyfer’s striking is a 60. Meerschaert wasn’t supposed to beat Silva as the line closed with Silva as a -280 favorite. But the striking was close to equal and Meerschaert had the ability to take Silva down and keep him there. So how’d that happen? Did Meerschaert improve? I doubt it. He’s 35 years old. 17 UFC fights. It’s more likely that Silva was just over rated. But then again, Silva was highly thought of based on how he looked against now champ Alex Pereira. So I’m open to the possibility that maybe Meerschaert got better. On paper, Pyfer’s power could be the difference and Meerschaert can be knocked out. But if Meerschaert did actually improve, he could upset Pyfer.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pyfer -135
Cynthia Calvillo vs Loopy Godinez
- Cynthia Calvillo
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-1-1 at 115 lbs. 6-4-1 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nina Nunes.
- Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Jessica Eye, Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.Tools:
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Lupita Godinez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 115 lbs. 3-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Beat Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I’m not sure how Calvillo lost to Nina Nunes. Calvillo out struck her 47 to 38 and mixed in 3 take downs. It’s not like Nunes landed with much power or damage. I’m still confused over why Godinez didn’t go for more take downs against Hill. Instead Godinez was content to stand and trade, striking was close to equal and she lost a close decision to Hill. But I’ve seen too much of Godinez’s wrestling to move off a 70 grade for the time being. This fight with Calvillo could be similar, except I don’t see Godinez having as big of a wrestling advantage. On paper, it’s a coin flip, but it seems like Godinez’s career is more on an upward trajectory and more likely to show up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Godinez -125
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Trey Ogden
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Submitted Zhu Rong. Knocked out Roosevelt Roberts and a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus: (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Trey Ogden
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jordan Leavitt.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Daniel Zellhuber and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Zellhuber came in as a huge -390 favorite against Ogden. So I disagreed with the market on a couple things. I thought Ogden would be able to mix in some take downs. Thought Zellhuber’s wrestling was a 55. But turned out not to be the case. Ogden went for a few take downs and he got nowhere close. Thus Zellhuber’s wrestling is a 60. Which is what the market priced in. Market had Zellhuber as such a huge favorite because people thought Zellhuber would cruise on the feet. But to the surprise of everyone, including myself, Ogden out struck Zellhuber 71 to 52. Wow. Which means Zellhuber’s striking is a 60 afterall, like I thought. But it means Ogden’s striking is a 60, maybe even a 65. I am confident Bahamondes has 65 striking and am confident he’ll have way more power than Ogden.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Bahamondes -300
Nuerdanbieke Shayilan vs Steve Garcia
- Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 20-7
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler. Beat TJ Brown and Sean Soriano.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Steve Garcia
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chase Hooper and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Garcia looked like a completely different fighter at 145 lbs vs 155 lbs. So I wasn’t the only one surprised with Garcia’s win. Hooper came into the fight as a -295 favorite. Because the market thought Hooper would get the take downs. But Garcia blitzed Hooper, hurt him early, and Hooper never recovered. Garcia’s wrestling is probably a 60 now. And with me now convinced Hooper’s striking is likely a 55, I’d be comfortable grading Garcia’s striking a 60. Close fight. I see Nuerdanbieke getting take downs. Unless Garcia’s wrestling skyrocketed to a 65 grade, which isn’t impossible. But I see Garcia’s new power at 145 lbs the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Garcia -125
Sam Hughes vs Jaqueline Amorim
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-5
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jaqueline Amorim
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Amorim’s striking in her last fight was a lot more advanced than I thought it’d be for a grappler who has 5 of her 6 wins by submission. She was especially good defensively on the feet. And it’s possible her grappling is a 65. I think Hughes’ cardio, experience, and likely superior wrestling give her a slight edge here.
Chris’ Pick: Hughes by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hughes -150