Holloway vs Allen, Barboza vs Quarantillo, Jacoby vs Murzakanov Fight Picks – April 15, 2023

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen

  • Max Holloway
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 19-6
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: neat plus plus (75)
  • Arnold Allen
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 10-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Nik Lentz, and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

When Holloway fought Volkanovski the third time, the commentators made it seem like Holloway got wiped out. He didn’t. He lost, he was out struck, but it wasn’t a landslide either. But I am downgrading Holloway’s striking to a 75 where I’m very confident is the right grade. As for his wrestling, Volkanovski seemed content to fight on the feet. It’s possible Holloway’s wrestling could be a 70, but I think it’s a 75 due to how much success he had taking Rodriguez down. Despite Allen out striking Calvin Kattar 26 to 14 in the 1 round of their fight, I’m not convinced that he goes from showing 65 striking against Yusuff, to over the course of a year, he elevates his striking all the way to a 75. Yes, Kattar’s striking is probably more of a 70. And it’s just too small a sample for me to grade Allen’s striking past a 70. It might be tempting to pick the guy coming off two quick finishes in Allen over the former champ who decisively lost his last championship fight. But I pick based off of where I think the fighter’s skills are at. And on paper, Holloway has the better striking.

Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Holloway -225


Edson Barboza vs Billy Quarantillo

  • Edson Barboza
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 2-3 at 145 lbs. 14-10 UFC record at 155 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Billy Quarantillo
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Hernandez, Gabriel Benitez, Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

I like Quarantillo as a prospect. But this matchup is too much, too soon for him. Especially at only 3 rounds, whereas he’d have a better chance at winning at 5 rounds. I just don’t see Barboza wilting in a 3 round fight. He’s going to be patient, technical. And he just has way more power than Quarantillo.

Chris’ Pick: Barboza by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Barboza -300


Dustin Jacoby vs Azamat Murzakanov

  • Dustin Jacoby
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 7-1-1 at 205 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khalil Rountree.
  • Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Azamat Murzakanov
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 12-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark, Tafon Nchukwi, Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

I’m still not sure how Jacoby lost to Khalil Rountree as Jacoby landed more strikes 116 to 80. Is Jacoby’s striking a 70? It’s possible. I did have Rountree with 65 striking going in. And it’s also possible Murzakanov has 70 striking as well. Clark looks like he has leveled up and it’s possible he came into the Murzakanov fight with 65 striking. I expect this to be close, but I got to give Murzakanov a slight edge because I think he’ll mix some take downs in.

Chris’ Pick: Murzakanov by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Murzakanov -135


Tanner Boser vs Ion Cutelaba

  • Tanner Boser
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski. Split decision loss to Ilir Latifi.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux, Raphael Pessoa, and Philipe Lins.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Ion Cutelaba
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-8-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
  • Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Not sure what happened to Cutelaba in the Nzechukwu fight. He was looking good early on. Took Nzechukwu down. Went for a couple submission attempts. But did he gas himself out? It’s possible. Also seems like Nzechukwu leveled up. Either way, I’m not ready to move off of where I have Cutelaba’s skills graded. It’ll be interesting to see how Boser’s skills translate at 205 lbs. Also be interesting to see if his wrestling becomes a 70. He’ll definitely have better cardio than Cutelaba. He should win.

Chris’ Pick: Boser by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Boser -150


Pedro Munhoz vs Chris Guttierez

  • Pedro Munhoz
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 9-7
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Jimmie Rivera and Brett Johns.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Chris Gutierrez
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-1-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

He’s 36 years old. He has 16 fights in the UFC, but the numbers don’t lie. Munhoz landed one more strike than Sean O’Malley in their fight. And I know O’Malley has 70 striking. So somehow Munhoz got better. I was really interested in seeing how Guttierez’s wrestling would hold up against Edgar’s. The market had Guttierez priced as a -240 favorite which means that they didn’t think it’d be a problem. And it wasn’t, but that’s because the fight only lasted 2 minutes. I’ll say that it’s very possible Guttierez has improved his wrestling to a 60 or maybe even a 65, but I haven’t seen it. Last time I saw him wrestle, it was a 55 for me. Maybe Munhoz can win with grappling here, or maybe Guttierez will stuff take downs. But regardless, Munhoz should be able to land more strikes.

Chris’ Pick: Munhoz by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Munhoz -250


Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia

  • Clay Guida
  • Age: 41
  • UFC Record: 18-15
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
  • Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision wins over Scott Holtzman and Mark O. Madsen.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Rafa Garcia
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Maheshate Hayisaer and a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Guida has had a good run recently, winning 3 of his last 5 fights. But he’s going to have problems with Garcia, won’t be able to out cardio him or take him down. I see Garcia forcing Guida to fight on the feet where he should land more strikes.

Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Garcia -275


Bill Algeo vs TJ Brown

  • Bill Algeo
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 3-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns and a 27-8 grappler. Beat Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • TJ Brown
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Erik Silva, a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Kai Kamaka.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

I really thought Silva’s wrestling was a 65. Turns out it was Brown getting the better of the wrestling. I’m confident that Silva’s wrestling is at least a 60, so I’m comfortable upgrading Brown’s wrestling to a 65. Algeo did out strike Andre Fili. So it’s likely that his striking has improved to a 70 grade. But I’m not entirely sure his wrestling is a 65. Fili did get Algeo down in the 3rd round and got a body lock, was able to ground him most of the round. But Algeo’s not a one dimensional fighter. I think it’s likely he just got caught and I’m projecting the wrestling to be a 65, although I acknowledge I could be wrong. Either way, I see Algeo having a big advantage on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Algeo by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Algeo -225


Brandon Royval vs Matheus Nicolau

  • Brandon Royval
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Rogerio Bontorin.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Matheus Nicolau
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 7-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat David Dvorak, Tim Elliott, Louis Smolka, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

The Royval vs Schnell fight was fun while it lasted. Striking on the feet was about equal. Grappling went back and forth at a furious pace. I think Royval caught Schnell when he was vulnerable. Schnell was squeezing right tight for a choke, didn’t get it, then Royval jumped on him with a guillotine. Royval’s tools stay the same for me. I didn’t think Nicolau deserved to be a -450 favorite over Schnell. I had his striking as a 70. But either Nicolau’s striking improved or I was wrong about it being a 65 in the first place. Either way, it’s definitely a 70 tool now. Really fun fight that’s a complete toss up. But Royval has faced tougher competition, we haven’t seen him in awhile. I expect him to show up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Royval by 3rd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Royval -125


Zak Cummings vs Ed Herman

  • Zak Cummings
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 10-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michel Prazeres.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Trevin Giles and Alexander Yakovlev. Beat Nicholas Dalby and Alessio di Chirico.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: above average (60) 
  • Ed Herman
  • Age: 42
  • UFC Record: 13-12
  • Key Losses: Lost to CB Dollaway. Split decision loss to Gian Villante.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Patrick Cummins. 
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Cummings hasn’t fought in almost 3 years, but he’s coming off a close win over a successful UFC fighter in di Chirico. He was 35 years old back then. 38 years old now. But Herman is 4 years older. And Herman hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Obviously there’s some regression risk for both guys, but on paper, at least from last time we saw them, Cummings has the better tools.

Chris’ Pick: Cummings by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Cummings -225


Gillian Robertson vs Piera Rodriguez

  • Gillian Robertson
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 8-6
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Mariya Agapova, Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Piera Rodriguez
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 9-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler and a 3-1 grappler. Beat Sam Hughes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Even though Robertson is known for her grappling and Hughes is more of a wrestler, their skills sets are generally similar. Meaning that I expect Rodriguez to be able to stuff most if not all take downs. And Rodriguez having more power and doing more damage will be the difference in the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -150


Daniel Zellhuber vs Lando Vannata

  • Daniel Zellhuber
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 12-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Lucas Almeida and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Lando Vannata
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-6-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Bobby Green, Drakkar Klose, and Marc Diakiese.
  • Key Draws: Fought Matt Frevola and Bobby Green to draws.Key Wins: Knocked out John Makdessi. Beat Yancy Medeiros. Split decision over Mike Grundy.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Zellhuber came in as a huge -390 favorite against Ogden. So I disagreed with the market on a couple things. I thought Ogden would be able to mix in some take downs. Thought Zellhuber’s wrestling was a 55. But turned out not to be the case. Ogden went for a few take downs and he got nowhere close. Thus Zellhuber’s wrestling is a 60. Which is what the market priced in. Market had Zellhuber as such a huge favorite because people thought Zellhuber would cruise on the feet. But to the surprise of everyone, including myself, Ogden out struck Zellhuber 71 to 52. Wow. Which means Zellhuber’s striking is a 60 afterall, like I thought. But it means Ogden’s striking is a 60, maybe even a 65. Should be a really close fight here. The market had Vannata at even money going into his last fight with Charles Jourdain, meaning that the market probably has Vannata with 65 striking. I disagree with that grade, but it’s possible. I’m picking Zellhuber because career seems to be on the incline and Vannata, who’s won only 4 of his last 12 fights on the decline.

Chris’ Pick: Zellhuber by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Zellhuber -150


Denise Gomes vs Bruna Brasil

  • Denise Gomes
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Bruna Brasil
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 8-2-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Marnic Mann. Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

And to think I had Brasil’s power as a 45 going into the Contender. Scratch that. We don’t see many head kick KO’s at women’s 115 lbs. I could see this fight going either way. But I’m going to pick Gomes because I think her striking is closer to a 65 than Brasil’s is.

Chris’ Pick: Gomes by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Gomes -125


Aaron Phillips vs Gaston Bolanos

  • Aaron Phillips
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 12-4
  • UFC Record: 0-3
  • Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 grappler. Split decision win over a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Gaston Bolanos
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 6-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: fringe average (45)

I still didn’t get that good of a read on Phillips’ skills in his return to the UFC. Jack Shore just took him down and dominated him for the 7 minutes the fight lasted. And to make matters even more mysterious, that Phillips vs Shore fight took place almost 3 years ago. You’d think Phillips would show up improved. And I think he’ll be able to take Bolanos down often enough to win a close fight.

Chris’ Pick: Phillips by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Phillips -150


Joselyne Edwards vs Lucie Pudilova

  • Joselyne Edwards
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
  • Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision over Ji Yeon Kim.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Lucie Pudilova
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 3-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Irene Aldana.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Wu Yanan. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Pudilova returned to the UFC for her 2nd stint a much improved fighter. Especially in the wrestling. It was proven to me that Yanan had 60 grappling with how she did against Mayra Bueno Silva. So for Pudilova to come in, take Yanan down, get her in mount, and finish the fight with elbows, super impressive. 65 wrestling for me. But the striking is trickier to grade. I had Yanan at 55 striking. And when they were on the feet, strikes were close to equal. So my eyes haven’t seen it yet, it doesn’t show up in the numbers, but I’m projecting 60 striking for Pudilova. It’s possible Pudilova’s wrestling could be a 70, maybe she could keep Edwards on the ground. But the likely outcome is Edwards landing more and winning.

Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Edwards -150

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