
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Pavlovich now has five 1st round knockouts in a row in the UFC. The market priced him as having 75 striking and he delivered on that, landing 16 shots to 2. But of course, the obvious question is whether his striking would hold up as a 75 over 3 rounds, much less 5 rounds. Who knows. But what I do know is I’ve seen Blaydes vs Francis Ngannou twice and in both, Blaydes chin hasn’t held up. I don’t think it’ll hold up against Pavlovich either.
Chris’ Pick: Pavlovich by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pavlovich -175
Bruno Silva vs Brad Tavares
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 14-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Tavares is a successful UFC fighter. We know what we’re going to get out of him. And look at this as a measuring stick. Compare out Tavares did with du Plessis vs how well Darren Till did. Tavares has sound 65 tools. Close fight. Silva has more power. But Tavares has the ability to clinch Silva along the fence, get some takedowns. Make the fight dirty. He has the cardio and durability to do it. But I think Silva gets the nod because he’s going to inflict more damage.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -135
Bobby Green vs Jared Gordon
- Bobby Green
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-9-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Green getting knocked out is just the product of bad luck. Green was out striking Drew Dober 72 to 33 up until the KO. Big lead in the striking and I have no doubt Green retains his 70 striking. I thought Gordon’s striking was a 70, but the numbers don’t lie. Pimblett landed one more strike than Gordon solidifying that they both have 65 grade striking. Green has the better striking and will win.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Green -250
Iasmin Lucindo vs Brogan Walker
- Iasmin Lucindo
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-3 grappler. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Brogan Walker
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Maverick and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Talk about a tough way to make a UFC debut. First Julianna Miller. Now Lucindo, who’s even better than Miller. I’ve only seen a couple Lucindo fights. Slight chance her striking is a 60, but she has margin to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lucindo -600
Jeremiah Wells vs Matthew Semelsberger
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 11-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Court McGee, Warlley Alves, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Blood Diamond and a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat Jake Matthews, AJ Fletcher, and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t the only one who thought Matthews would beat Semelsberger. The market did too as Matthews closed as a -305 favorite. Striking was close to equal, but the real problem for Matthews is that Semelsberger had way more power. After watching Matthews vs Andre Fialho, you’d thnk Matthews has turned a corner. And you know what, he probably has. I think that fight had more to do with Semelsberger showing up improved. He definitely showed 65 wrestling against Matthews. Wells has big power too, but I don’t think his striking is on Semelsberger’s level yet.
Chris’ Pick: Semelsberger by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Semelsberger -200
Ricky Glenn vs Christos Giagos
- Ricky Glenn
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Grant Dawson to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Silva. Beat Gavin Tucker. Split decision wins over Dennis Bermudez and Phillipe Nover.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Christos Giagos
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I had thought Giagos had 60 wrestling. Back when he had fought Drakkar Klose in 2019, the wrestling was close to equal. But 65 grappler Thiago Moises dominated the grappling in Giagos’ last fight. Thus I think Klose had 55 wrestling at the time they fought and then leveled up after that. But I could be wrong. It’s possible that it was Moises’ who leveled up to 70 grappling and Giagos might have 60 wrestling after all. Glenn has been very inactive. Only 2 fights since November 2018. And 1 of those fights only lasted 37 seconds. Normally I’d say okay, look at Glenn’s last fight against Grant Dawson, it went 3 rounds, you can see where his tools are at there. But it’s still hard because Glenn was controlled on the ground for a majority of the first 2 rounds, Then in the 3rd, he mounted a comeback, but that had more to do with Dawson gassing out. But I an decently confident Glenn’s striking is at least a 60 and he has that 60 power too. But Giagos is durable so I see Glenn getting a close decision win.
Chris’ Pick: Glenn by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Glenn -150
Montel Jackson vs Rani Yahya
- Montel Jackson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat Julio Arce, JP Buys, and Felipe Corales.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rani Yahya
- Age: 38
- UFC/WEC Record: 16-7-1
- Key Draws: Fought Enrique Barzola to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Joe Soto.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ray Rodriguez and Luke Sanders. Beat Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I was surprised. Low and behold, at 37 years of age, 38 professional fights in, Yahya still has 65 grappling as he was able to take down and control 55 wrestler Ho Kang for most of their fight. And I was also surprised to see their striking was close to equal. Everybody had Jackson vs Arce as a near pick em going in, including me. But Jackson improved his wrestling, was able to control Arce along the fence in the clinch for chunks of time in the fight. And that improved 65 wrestling will be able to stuff Yahya take down attempts. Gigantic power difference on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jackson -400
Norma Dumont vs Karol Rosa
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.
- Key Wins: Beat Danyelle Wolf, Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio. Majority decision over Lina Lansberg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Important to know about this fight, it’s going to be at 145 lbs. Which means Rosa is moving up in weight here where her tools might not translate as well. Could have 60 striking and 60 wrestling here against the bigger Dumont. But even if she does transition to 145 lbs fine, I still see Dumont as having the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Dumont by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dumont -300
Mohammad Usman vs Junior Tafa
- Mohammed Usman
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zac Pauga and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Not too much footage of Tafa out there, but 4 KO wins in 4 pro fights is not too bad. He looked good against a 4-3 grappler in Brave. Was able to get back up pretty quick after being taken down. I see Tafa as the slicker, much faster striker here.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tafa -200
Francis Marshall vs William Gomis
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcelo Rojo. Submitted a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- William Gomis
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’m still not convinced Marshall has 60 power, yes, the KO over a quality fighter in Rojo looked great, but it was also the first KO of his career. Yes, it’s possible he might be unlocking power in his hands finally, but I need to see more. Marshall should be able to win here with his grappling though.
Chris’ Pick: Marshall by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Marshall -275
Batgerel Danaa vs Brady Hiestand
- Batgerel Danaa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brandon Davis and Kevin Natividad. Submitted an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Brady Hiestand
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 10-4 fighter. Split decision loss to Rickt Turcios.
- Key Wins: Beat Fernie Garcia.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I see this fight going very similarly to how Hiestand vs Garcia went. Hiestand has the cardio to wrestle all fight and he’ll be able to take Batgerel down again and again after Batgerel gets back up. Should be enough for Hiestand to edge out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Hiestand by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hiestand -135