Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera
- Cory Sandhagen
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Yadong Song and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average grappling (60)
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 14-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Rob Font and Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Cruz was winning the fight. He out struck Vera 89 to 54. Am I surprised? Not really. Cruz has shown 75 striking in the past. Vera has too much of a track record with 70 striking for me to think about downgrading him. Cruz showing up healthy and himself is the most likely way to explain what happened. Sandhagen reaffirmed his 75 striking against Song out striking him 86 to 44. Sandhagen in a lot of ways is similar to past Vera opponents Cruz and Font. They’ll land more. But Vera was able to win because he had more power. But that’s not going to be the case here. Sandhagen has legit power and will do damage when he lands. I also think Sandhagen will mix in some wrestling just like he did against Song.
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sandhagen -275
Holly Holm vs Yana Santos
- Holly Holm
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ketlen Vieira.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correira. Beat Raquel Pennington twice. Beat Irene Aldana and Megan Anderson at 145 lbs.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Yana Santos
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2 at 135 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Ketlen Vieira, Marion Reneau, and Lina Lansberg.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
After Holm’s Vieira fight, it looks like her striking is starting to drift downward, pretty close to a 70. Not quite there. Still have the tool as a 75. The thing that did surprise me in the Vieira fight was how often Holm was able to control Vieira in the clinch along the fence. So Holm’s wrestling tool is close to a 75 for me. Holm should win, but if it turns out her striking is more of a 70 now, it could be close.
Chris’ Pick: Holm by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holm -175
Austin Lingo vs Nate Landwehr
- Austin Lingo
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat Luis Saldana.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Ludovit Klein. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). Majority decision over David Onama.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Lingo does have some wrestling, he was able to stuff take down attempts by 60 wrestler Saldana. So I have Lingo’s wrestling as a 60 as well. But I’m confident I have Lingo graded accurately. And Lingo is a similar fighter to Landwehr, except Landwehr is a notch above in every area.
Chris’ Pick: Landwehr by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Landwehr -275
Maycee Barber vs Andrea Lee
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Jessica Eye and Montana de la Rosa. Split decision over Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’m still having a hard time digesting the Lee vs Viviane Araujo fight. Araujo was dominant, took Lee down repeatedly, had over 10 minutes of control time. And for awhile, I thought Araujo had elevated her wrestling to a 75. But it’s been proven in Araujo’s past couple fights that’s not the case, that her wrestling is just a 70. But there’s no way Lee’s grappling is only a 60, right? It’s possible how Lee was controlled on the ground could’ve been an outlier, Lee having an off night. I’m going to leave it as a 65 for now. Despite Barber picking up the win over Eye, her skills have hit a bit of a plateau. Still young obviously, but she’s 9 fights into her UFC career now and she hasn’t shown big improvement in awhile. The wrestling and striking with Eye was close to equal and she barely eked out a win. Interesting fight as I don’t know what to make of Lee’s grappling, but I do know on the feet, Lee should land more.
Chris’ Pick: Lee by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lee -135
Alex Perez vs Manel Kape
- Alex Perez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Manel Kape
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ode Osbourne, and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker. Beat David Dvorak.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The market closed with Kape as a -250 favorite over Dvorak, which I disagreed with. Market probably thinking Kape has 70 striking. But outside big 2nd round for Kape, the striking was close to equal. Which proves Kape’s striking is still a 65. For Perez, the real fight is always vs the scale. If he can make 125 lbs, which if a big if, he should have the better striking. But he’ll likely be the underdog as he’s been very inactive lately.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Perez -225
Chidi Njokuani vs Albert Duraev
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 22-8
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Albert Duraev
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 15-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 wrestler, a 5-0 grappler, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 32-5 fighter and a 30-5 grappler. Beat Roman Kopylov, Sergey Khandozhko, and a 13-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Duraev closed as a -210 favorite to beat Joaquin Buckley, probably because the market thought Duraev had 70 wrestling and would be able to control Buckley on the ground. But that turned out not to be the case. Buckley was able to get back up and even stuff some take downs, so Duraev’s wrestling is a 65. This is a coin flip fight. Striker vs wrestler. Duraev has the cardio to wrestle for 15 minutes but I just think that Njokuani will be able to get back up, will be able to keep parts of the fight on the feet, and I think he’s going to catch Duraev.
Chris’ Pick: Njokuani by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Njokuani -125
Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 1-1 in 2nd UFC stint. 4-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Tucker Lutz
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Aguilar and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lutz was actually a -120 favorite in his last fight with Pat Sabatini but got dominated. But I think that has more to do with how good Sabatini is vs Lutz not being as good. Pineda’s fight with Fili ended on an eye poke, but the fight went long enough for me to see that he didn’t make any improvements. Tools were the same. This is going to be a close fight with two guys who have both been out for awhile. On paper, I’d say Pineda should have a slight edge to win because he should have more power. But the outcome is even more murky with Lutz being 9 years younger, probably improving, with the risk of Pineda starting to regress at any point.
Chris’ Pick: Pineda by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pineda -125
Steven Peterson vs Lucas Alexander
- Steven Peterson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Brandon Davis. Split decision loss to Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Bravo. Beat Chase Hooper.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Lucas Alexander
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Does Peterson really have 65 striking now? Is that really where we’re at now? The same Peterson who has a 3-4 UFC record and a journeyman pro record of 19-10? Yes, yes we are. He’s gotten much, much better at Fortis. I know 100% for sure Julian Erosa has 65 striking and the striking between him and Peterson was close to equal. We didn’t get to see much of Alexander in his debut, but I’m decently confident that if Brito could take Alexander down and take the back so easily, Peterson could do it too. And even if that’s not the case, Peterson’s striking is better with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Peterson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Peterson -500
Trevin Giles vs Preston Parsons
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Louis Cosce and Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat Evan Elder.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I thought Cosce’s striking was a 60 going into the Giles fight. Turns out Giles out Cosce 25 to 9. So I know for sure Cosce’s striking isn’t worse than a 55. Which means Giles striking is a 60 for sure. He’s gotten better. Giles has gotten a lot of tough assignments in the UFC so far, but this should be one of his easier ones.
Chris’ Pick: Giles by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Giles -450
CJ Vergara vs Daniel Lacerda
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-4-1
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Daniel Lacerda
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Vergara getting submitted by Tatsuro Taira had more to do with Taira being really good than Vergara not being as good as we caught. Despite the loss, his tools were reaffirmed. Coin flip fight but I’m picking Vergara because I have serious doubts about da Silva’s chin, he’s been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights, at 125 lbs. And 7 of Lacerda’s last 8 fights have ended in the 1st round. I see Vergara having a game plan of putting on a fast pace and taking over after Lacerda gets tired.
Chris’ Pick: Vergara by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vergara -135
Vinicius Salvador vs Victor Altamirano
- Vinicius Salvador
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
On the surface, you could say Salvador dominated Shannon Ross on the Contender. Had him hurt almost the whole fight. But looking at the strikes landed, it was close. Salvador landed more 66 to 56. Odds opened Salvador as a -175 favorite, but in a wild swing of events, the line flipped and closed with Ross a -260 favorite. Exactly how good is Ross? I’m not sure, but I’m going to keep Salvador’s grades the same as they were going into the Contender. But it’s possible Salvador’s striking is a 65. Altamirano might be coming off a KO win over da Silva, but it was a ground and pound TKO. And only the 2nd knockout win out of 11 pro wins. So I’m still not convinced his power is a 60. Salvador is a similar opponent as da Silva except I think Salvador’s chin will hold up better.
Chris’ Pick: Salvador by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Salvador -150