Edwards vs Usman 3, Gaethje vs Fiziev, Vettori vs Dolidze Fight Picks – UFC 286 – March 18, 2023

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 3

  • Leon Edwards
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 12-2
  • Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Kamaru Usman
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 15-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley. 
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

I can imagine most people remember that Usman was winning the fight, but at the very end, Edwards knocked him out. Probably the vast majority remember it that way. But I think what the vast majority don’t remember is the theme of UFC 278. And that was the vast majority of fighters gassing out. We saw fighters who got unusually tired. The altitude of Utah became the theme of the night. Fighters with bad cardio were losing. My point is that early in the fight, Edwards wrestling looked great. He even took Usman down and controlled him most of the round. Took his back, was going for chokes. Using a lot of energy. But Usman trains in Colorado year round. He’s used to the altitude. Edwards does not. Edwards seemed to become fatigued by the end of the 2nd round. So Usman was winning the fight with wrestling and because Edwards was more tired. Striking was close to equal. But Usman was repeatedly getting take downs. So the big question I want answered here in the 3rd fight is how much did the altitude in Utah play a factor. Will we see Edwards cardio hold up at regular altitude in England? I think it will. And I don’t think Usman’s wrestling will be as effective. I think Usman will be the favorite because again, most people remember Usman was winning the fight. But I think it’s going to be a very close fight this time around and look. Don’t forget how often people who win the first fight, win the rematch. It’s near 72%. Usman is coming off his first knockout loss against the exact same guy. This is a very different fight than the last one where Usman had all that confidence. I think Edwards knocks him out again.

Chris’ Pick: Edwards by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Edwards -125


Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

  • Justin Gaethje
  • Age: 34
  • UFC record: 6-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Rafael Fiziev
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Fiziev’s tools were reaffirmed in the dos Anjos fight. Played out as everyone expected. And once and for all, Gaethje’s striking is a 70. That breakout performance Gaethje had over Ferguson had more to do with Ferguson starting to regress, not Gaethje having 75 striking. There were hints of that in his fight with Chandler, but the fact that Oliveira out struck Gaethje 20 to 15 confirmed it. Total coin flip fight. Could go either way, but I favor Fiziev as his body has way less mileage, he’s 5 years younger and it seems his career and Gaethje’s could be going in opposite directions.

Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Fiziev -125



Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena

  • Gunnar Nelson
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 9-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Alan Jouban. Beat Takashi Sato.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Bryan Barberena
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 9-7
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Robbie Lawler. Beat Darian Weeks and Warlley Alves. Split decision over Matt Brown.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I don’t see anyway that Rafael dos Anjos has 70 wrestling at 170 lbs. I’ve seen too many of his welterweight fights to know it’s a 65 tool. Therefore with dos Anjos out classing Barberena with take downs, I have no choice but to downgrade Barberena’s wrestling to a 55. And look, if dos Anjos was able to out class Barberena, what do you think Nelson will do with bonafide 70 grappling.

Chris’ Pick: Nelson by 1st round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Nelson -600


Jennifer Maia vs Casey O’Neill

  • Jennifer Maia
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 5-5
  • Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. 
  • Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Maryna Moroz, Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis, and Roxanne Modafferi.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Casey O’Neill
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 9-0
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Antonina Shevchenko and Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker. Split decision over Roxanne Modafferi.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

I thought O’Neill’s fight with Moddaferi would be a bit closer, but O’Neill ended up out striking her 225 to 112. Really impressive. I could be wrong, but based on those numbers I have O’Neill’s striking as a 70 now. But like I said, I could be wrong, it’s possible Moddaferi’s striking regressed going into her retirement fight. Could be a close, but I give O’Neill an edge as she should be able to get some take downs and top control. And I do see her landing more strikes.

Chris’ Pick: O’Neill by decision.

What I think the odds should be: O’Neill -300


Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze

  • Marvin Vettori
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 7-4-1
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
  • Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. 
  • Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Roman Dolidze
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

I still think Hermansson is a better fighter than Dolidze. Hermansson showed better 70 striking. And Hermansson was winning the grappling exchanges. Until he wasn’t when Dolidze caught him in an innovative calf slicer that made one of Hermansson’s legs stuck. He had nowhere to go and Dolidze pounded away for the win. Stuff like that happens sometimes. And Hermansson and Vettori are similar fighters. Which means I think Vettori should win here.

Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Vettori -175


Jack Shore vs Makwan Amirkhani

  • Jack Shore
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 5-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Timur Valiev and Liudvik Sholinian. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Makwan Amirkhani
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 7-6
  • Key Losses: Lost to Kamuela Kirk. Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Mike Grundy, Danny Henry, and Chris Fishgold. 
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Towards the end of Amirkhani’s fight with Pearce, he was getting dominated on the ground. And Pearce finished the fight with strikes. The result had a lot to do with Pearce improving even more. But also showed that Amirkhani’s skills have hit a plateau. He’s 13 fights into his UFC career and might be at his ceiling. I’m still not 100% sure on how good Shore’s wrestling is. I have Ricky Simon with 75 wrestling and Shore showed me 70 wrestling in that fight. But it’s also possible Simon’s wrestling could be a 70 as well, thus making Shore not as good as I thought. But for now, I think a 70 on Shore’s wrestling is the right grade. That said, this is a solid bounce back spot for Shore because Amirkhani doesn’t pose a threat anywhere.

Chris’ Pick: Shore by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Shore -325


Chris Duncan vs Omar Morales

  • Chris Duncan
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Omar Morales
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Beat Shane Young and Gabriel Benitez.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: average (50)

I’m still surprised Morales was the -145 favorite over Uros Medic. I thought striking would be close to equal but Medic would have the power advantage and that’s exactly what played out. Duncan was inches away from being knocked out in his second Contender fight with Charlie Campbell, but he weathered the storm and instead knocked Campbell out. Striking was close to equal leading up to that point and it was enough for me to elevate Duncan’s striking to a 60. This should be a fun fight, should be on the feet. Duncan has a power advantage and that should be the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Duncan by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Duncan -150


Sam Patterson vs Yanal Ashmoz

  • Sam Patterson
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 10-1-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 14-1 grappler. Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Beat an 18-6 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Yanal Ashmoz
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

I was really underwhelmed by what I saw in Ashmoz. Fought a 4-1 wrestler who I thought had 50 striking and 55 wrestling. They wrestled most of the fight and Ashmoz spent plenty of time on his back in the first 2 rounds. Went back and forth. Then Ashmoz started to take over in the 3rd round because he had the better cardio. It’s possible I have Ashmoz graded too high. His tools could be 50’s. Patterson found himself in a back and forth fight with Vinicius Cenci. Closer than the market thought it’d be, but Cenci got caught in a choke as they were grappling and that was it. Patterson has a lot more hype. He should win here. Should get take downs. Could get a submission. But it could be close on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Patterson by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Patterson -150


Muhammad Mokaev vs Jafel Filho

  • Muhammad Mokaev
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 9-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Malcolm Gordon and Cody Durden. Beat Charles Johnson and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Jafel Filho
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 14-2
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 grappler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador and a 7-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Mokaev had no business being a -1150 favorite. Ridiculous. Even more ridiculous was Mokaev’s strategy to grapple with Gordon the whole fight. Why? Mokaev had such an advantage on the feet. He made things harder on himself than he needed to as Gordon showed he has legit 60 grappling did have some moments in their fight. There was a consensus going into the Filho vs Roybert Echeverria fight that Filho was the rightful favorite. But the consensus was also that Echeverria was a big unknown. Not much film on him. Wins over poor competition. But the fight ended up being close. I projected Echeverria to have 50 tools going in, but maybe the tools are more like 55’s. Striking was close to equal so I’m downgrading Filho’s striking to a 55. Word is that Filho got matched up with Mokaev because Filho was the only one willing to fight him on a month’s notice. Mokaev should be better everywhere, especially on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Mokaev -500


Gabriel Santos vs Lerone Murphy

  • Gabriel Santos
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Elves Brener.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Lerone Murphy
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 11-0-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Santos has beat a lot of quality competition, most notably current UFC fighter Brener, who’s coming off an upset win over Zubaira Tukhugov. So I’m tempted to grade Santos higher, but I watched his last fight against a well rounded 12-2 fighter and I don’t see his striking being any higher than a 60. And the grappling no higher than a 55. I mean, it’s possible the tools are better, but I think where I have him graded is most likely where his skills are currently at. First fight for Murphy is almost 2 years. He should have better striking than Santos. And Santos is also taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice.

Chris’ Pick: Murphy by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Murphy -225


Dusko Todorovic vs Christian Leroy Duncan

  • Dusko Todorovic
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Maki Pitolo, Michel Pereira, and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Christian Leroy Duncan
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

The fact that Duncan has fought quality competition in Cage Warriors is helpful. Cardio looks good. Long reach. Decently confident in where I’ve graded his skills. That said, Duncan can be taken down. Todorovic should have the ability to take him down. Despite the hype on Duncan, Todorovic should have enough cardio to wrestle his way to a win.

Chris’ Pick: Todorovic by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Todorovic -175


Jake Hadley vs Malcolm Gordon

  • Jake Hadley
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Candelario, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Malcolm Gordon
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Francisco Figueiredo, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 4-0 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Ok, I’ll give Hadley credit, he’s a little better all around from where I had him graded before. But still, he had no business being a -260 favorite over Candelario. Striking was close to equal and when they went to the ground, Hadley had a little bit of an edge, and caught Candelario in a triangle. Gordon showed he could hang with Muhammad Mokaev, but I think the same thing plays out, Hadley is just a tier above where Gordon is at.

Chris’ Pick: Hadley by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Hadley -325


Joanne Wood vs Luana Carolina

  • Joanne Wood
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 4-5 at 125 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lauren Murphy.
  • Key Wins: Beat Jessica Eye and Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Luana Carolina
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler. Split decision over Poliana Botelho.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

So the fight lasted less than 4 minutes. But when Wood was on the feet with no champ Alexa Grasso, Wood out struck her 32 to 13. So take that for what it’s worth. As in, maybe Wood’s striking has elevated to a 75. And based on how she was able to get up after Grasso’s first take down, maybe, just maybe she’s improved her wrestling to a 65. I’m not there yet, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see that level of skill in this fight. Carolina presents an ideal matchup for Wood. Striker. And Wood is a better striker with margin. She’s going to cruise here.

Chris’ Pick: Wood by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Wood -500


Jai Herbert vs Ludovit Klein

  • Jai Herbert
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Beat Kyle Nelson.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Ludovit Klein
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Mason Jones and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Herbert definitely had a hard time in his comeback fight with Nelson. Herbert won, but was absolutely more gun shy in the pocket and even preferred to wrestle most of the fight. Shots landed against 60 striker Nelson were close to equal, but it’s not enough for me to downgrade Herbert’s striking. Yet. Klein meanwhile put on the performance of his career. He came into the Jones fight as a +305 underdog, not only because Jones is really good, but also because he took the fight on 10 days notice. I disagreed with the market, thought Jones should only be favored at -125. And I turned out to be right, it was a close fight, but amazingly, it was Klein’s cardio that helped his grappling take over in the 3rd round. I’d even say it’s possible with a full camp, his grappling could be a 70. On paper, this could be a close fight, if Herbert shows up and performs to his full potential. But the careers for both seem to be going in opposite directions and I see Klein wanting to push a heavy pace and use his cardio to win here.

Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Klein -150


Juliana Miller vs Veronica Macedo

  • Juliana Miller
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 3-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Brogan Walker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Veronica Macedo
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 1-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

I’ve seen enough of Bea Malecki now to know her striking and grappling are 55 tools. So based on what Macedo did against Malecki in her last fight, the striking is a 50 and grappling is a 55 for me. Although that was 3 years ago back when Macedo was 24 years old. She’s 27 years old now and very possible she shows up with improved skills. The market had Miller going into her TUF Finale fight with Walker as a -130 favorite which I thought was about right. Miller having a slight grappling advantage. But it turned out to be a monster advantage. Miller had Walker down almost the whole fight. It wasn’t close. Unless Macedo shows up a vastly improved fighter, she’s not going to have much chance here.

Chris’ Pick: Miller by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Miller -400

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