Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 14-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision over Petr Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Henry Cejudo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw. Split decision over Demetrius Johnson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
When Dominick Cruz is at his best, he has 75 striking. He even showed it in his last fight with Chito Vera. I had Cejudo with 70 striking going into his fight with Cruz. Cejudo had beat Moraes and the striking was close to equal. And the numbers don’t lie, amazingly Cejudo out struck Cruz, which almost never happens, 44 to 31. So even if you say, okay, Cruz came into the Cejudo matchup coming off a 3 year layoff and wasn’t at his best, at worst, Cruz’s striking would be a 70. I also have Cejudo’s wrestling as a 75 based on how he was able to take down and finish Moraes on the ground, but I have to mention that Cejudo tried to take Cruz down and didn’t have as much luck. Maybe Cejudo wasn’t committed to the take downs. Maybe he just wanted to change eye levels. Or maybe Cejudo’s wrestling at 135 lbs is a 70. And then there’s the question of whether Cejudo has retained his skills in the last 3 years. Who knows. Lot of question marks in the fight. We know where Sterling’s skills are at. For me, Cejudo’s power is probably the biggest difference maker. Cejudo knocked Moraes down. Knocked Dillashaw and Cruz out. I don’t see Sterling being able to take Cejudo down. I see this fight playing out on the feet and I think Cejudo will eventually catch Sterling. I also think the weight cut for Sterling to make 135 lbs is getting harder and harder and that doesn’t bode well for his durability.
Chris’ Pick: Cejudo by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cejudo -200
Gilbert Burns vs Belal Muhammad
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 170 lbs. 13-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Brady. Beat Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
I’ve seen Muhammad fight so many times, have had his wrestling at a 70 for awhile now. And when I watched Muhammad stuff Brady take downs, it was one of those moments where I was questioning what my eyes were seeing. I can’t deny Brady has 75 wrestling, with how he took down and controlled Michael Chiesa and Jake Matthews. The market had Brady’s 75 wrestling priced in as well as Brady closed as a -140 favorite. But Brady couldn’t get Muhammad down. 5 take down attempts stuffed. So I can’t deny that Muhammad improved his wrestling to a 75. And exact same situation with Burns. For so long, he’s had 70 grappling. Takes on Magny, who I know has 65 wrestling. Takes Magny down once and that’s it. Never gets up. Burns locks in the choke a couple minutes later. Pure domination. I think Burns’ grappling has elevated to a 75 too. So this is a fun matchup, but the one big difference I see between these guys is that Burns has way more power. I just don’t see Muhammad going 5 rounds with Burns and not getting knocked out. Muhammad hasn’t been in the octagon with the same level of competition Burns has been.
Chris’ Pick: Burns by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Burns -150
Jessica Andrade vs Yan Xiaonan
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marina Rodriguez.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill. Majority decision over MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Andrade is hard to grade because of how much she goes back and forth between 115 lbs and 125 lbs. What also makes it hard is juxtoposing how dominant Andrade looked against Lauren Murphy vs how she looked against Erin Blanchfield. So even though it only lasted a few minutes, I look at how Andrade fared against Lemos and Lemos out struck her 7 to 3. So I can’t give Andrade 75 striking. But I do have confidence, especially after stuffing Murphy take downs at 125 lbs, that she definitely has 70 wrestling. Dern closed as a -240 favorite over Yan, because the market thought Dern would be able to control her on the ground. We’d seen Yan controlled before, by Carla Esparza. But instead Yan showed improved 65 wrestling, which helped her be able to get up and even stuff some take down attempts. It’s even possible the tool could be as high as a 70. But the big problem for Yan in this fight is just dealing with Andrade’s power. Especially at 115 lbs. I really don’t see a path for Yan to win here. Andrade has experience going 5 rounds so I don’t see her gassing out in 3 rounds, even at a high pace. And even if she has a tough cut to 115 lbs and isn’t as durable, it’s not like Yan has KO power.
Chris’ Pick: Andrade by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Andrade -275
Diego Lopes vs Movsar Evloev
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 20-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcos Beltran and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Movsar Evloev
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Dan Ige, Hakeem Dawodu, Mike Grundy, Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler. Split decision win over Nik Lentz.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Evloev steps in for Jonathan Pearce on less than 2 weeks notice to take on Bryce Mitchell. Now Mitchell gets hurt and in steps Lopes on a week’s notice. Which is some nice redemption for Lopes as he fought Joanderson Brito on the Contender, but the fight ended due to Lopes being poked in the eye. Fight was close. Striking close to equal. And Lopes was content to grapple off his back with Brito on top for good chunks of the fight. Lopes is a good prospect but unfortunately for him, Evloev has the skills of a title contender. He was able to take down and control Ige for most of their fight, elevating his wrestling to a 75. It’s possible Lopes shows up improved from where he was at in the Brito fight, but it’s still very likely Evloev wins here as his striking is a couple tiers above Lopes’.
Chris’ Pick: Evloev by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Evloev -600
Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain
- Kron Gracie
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Caceres.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-5-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Andre Ewell.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Jourdain might have lost to Nathaniel Wood, but the fight was close and Jourdain indeed improved his wrestling to a 65. He was taken down repeatedly, but was able to get up every time. Gracie returns for his first fight in 3 and a half years. Decent chance he shows up improved. Which he needs to in order to beat Jourdain. In Gracie’s last fight, he only had 2 take down attempts on Cub Swanson, both were unsuccessful. And with the power Jourdain has, Gracie is likely going to be in trouble if he can’t get take downs. On paper, with where both guys’ skills were at since last time I saw them, Jourdain should win here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gracie surprises.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jourdain -200
Drew Dober vs Matt Frevola
- Drew Dober
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
That’s two 1st round KO’s in a row for Frevola. I can’t deny him anymore. After 9 UFC fights, I can say he’s finally unlocked KO power in his hands. Dober is what he is at this point, which don’t get me wrong, he’s a successful, quality UFC fighter. But his skills have plateaued. Yes, he got the KO on Green, but Green was out striking him 72 to 33 up until that point. Green’s problem is that Dober just has a lot more power. But fortunately for Dober, he should have the better striking and the wrestling to stuff take down attempts.
Chris’ Pick: Dober by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dober -250
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Devin Clark
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Devin Clark
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight. Beat Da Un Jung, Alonzo Menifield, and Mike Rodriguez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’ll give Clark credit, he came into the Da Woon Jung fight with a smart game plan. Wrestle Jung all fight and try to out cardio him. And for whatever reason, Jung was willing to oblige. They didn’t strike much, but the thing we did learn for sure is that Clark has finally taken a step forward in his development and grade his wrestling a 65 now. And it’s also possible his striking could be as high as a 65. For Nzechukwu, it really seems like he leveled up. The market hinted towards this as the line closed with Nzechukwu as a -160 favorite over Cutelaba. After rewatching the fight, it ended because Cutelaba was out of gas in the 2nd round, couldn’t take Nzechukwu down anymore. At worst, Nzechukwu is where I’ve graded him. At best, he could have 70 striking now. And this is just a nightmare matchup for Clark. I think Nzechuwu will be smart and not play the grappling game for all 3 rounds. Nzechukwu has more power and Clark can be knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nzechukwu -275
Khaos Williams vs Rolando Bedoya
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randy Brown.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Rolando Bedoya
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-1 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Bedoya is a volume guy. He trades power for volume and it’s possible his striking could be a 60, but even if it is, it won’t matter. Not only is Bedoya making his UFC debut, but it’s also against a guy who has way, way more power and I don’t see how Bedoya goes 3 rounds without getting knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Williams -450
Marina Rodriguez vs Virna Jandiroba
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Beat Angela Hill. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Jandiroba did beat Hill by having the cardio to grapple her all fight, but when they were on the feet, Hill did out strike her, leaving Jandiroba’s striking a 60. I see Jandiroba being able to take Rodriguez down repeatedly in the same way, and having better cardio than MacKenzie Dern to not gas out as the fight goes on.
Chris’ Pick: Jandiroba by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Jandiroba -135
Parker Porter vs Braxton Smith
- Parker Porter
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat Alan Baudot, Chase Sherman, and Josh Parisian.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Braxton Smith
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Smith reminds me a lot of William Knight, except I’d say Smith is more aggressive, partly due to his success for getting the 1st round KO. But I’m not ready to grade his striking past a 55 as the pace he puts on to get those KO’s, he’d be gassed out if he ever reached the 2nd round. Yes, that’s right, he’s never fought in the 2nd round. His longest pro fight is 2 minutes and 8 seconds. The smart game plan for Porter here, especially coming off a knockout is to use his wrestling to tire Smith out and then take over in the second half.
Chris’ Pick: Porter by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Porter -200
Phil Hawes vs Ikram Aliskerov
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Deron Winn, a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ikram Aliskerov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Mario Sousa, Dennis Tiuliulin, and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Aliskerov closed as a monstrous -580 favorite over Mario Sousa on the Contender. So basically the market was pricing Aliskerov’s grappling as a 70 and that tool could be that good. Once he got Sousa down, Aliskerov got the submission less than a minute later. I’m pretty sure Sousa has 55 grappling. Maybe it’s a 50. Maybe Aliskerov’s grappling is a 70, but I’m going to grade it as a 65 for now. The fact that they’re matching Aliskerov with an opponent like Hawes right away shows you what the UFC thinks of him as a prospect. But I think it’s too much, too soon. Even if Hawes is taken down, I see him being able to get back up and he’ll have way more power than Aliskerov.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hawes -200
Joseph Holmes vs Claudio Ribeiro
- Joseph Holmes
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted Alen Amedovski and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Claudio Ribeiro
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Holmes might have lost his last fight, but he for sure improved his striking, landed more shots against Jun Yong Park 19 to 14. It’s even remotely possible the striking tool could be as high as a 65. It’s possible Ribeiro has 55 wrestling. Abdul Razak Alhassan was able to clinch him up against the fence but not take him down. Coin flip fight, I think Ribeiro will be really aggressive, but Holmes will weather the storm and take it to him late.
Chris’ Pick: Holmes by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Holmes -135