MacKenzie Dern vs Angela Hill
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Angela Hill
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-9
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Did Hill’s striking level up to a 70 grade in her win over Ducote? Or has Jessica Penne’s striking regressed to a 50? Because if Penne has 50 striking, it would explain Ducote being able to out class her with 60 striking and how Hill was still able to land more shots than Ducote. I think that scenario is more likely than Hill improving her striking at 38 years of age. Dern will need to be patient here to win this fight. She hasn’t shown to have the best cardio. So when she struggles to get take downs, it gasses her out. Striking on the feet will be close, slight edge to Hill, but I do think Dern catches Hill in a submission on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dern -175
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Anthony Hernandez
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula, Brad Tavares, and Charles Byrd.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Hernandez did dominate Barriault on the ground, but something else to keep in mind is that Barriault broke one of his ribs somewhere between the end of the 1st or beginning of the 2nd. Regardless, Hernandez’s 65 grappling is legit and I won’t rule of the possibility of the tool being a 70. Shahbazyan should win this fight. Should have the wrestling to be able to get back up if taken down. But the real test will be Hernandez testing his cardio. Guarantee you that will be his strategy. To do the same thing he did to Barriault, push a ridiculous pace. But I think Shahbazyan knocks him out before he starts to gas out.
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Shahbazyan -175
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez
- Emily Ducote
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: split decision loss to Kanako Murata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler and a 10-2 striker. Submitted a well round 6-1 fighter. Beat Jessica Penne.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 115 lbs. 4-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Beat Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision over Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
How is it possible that Ducote goes from out striking Penne 115 to 55, but then gets out struck 130 to 62 against Angela Hill? Makes no sense. Even though Penne might be heading towards retirement, there’s no way her striking is worse than a 55. So more than likely Hill just showed up improved and Ducote’s striking is a 65. Close fight but I have more confidence with where I’ve graded Godinez and she should have the cardio to grind out a win, if she needs to.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Godinez -150
Joaquin Buckley vs Andre Fialho
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Andre Fialho
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fialho is coming off a KO loss to Muslim Salikhov, but there’s no shame in that. Striking was close to equal up until Fialho got hurt. And same for Buckley. Got knocked out by Chris Curtis. But in their fight, Buckley was winning the striking exchanges. KO’s happen. But Buckley should win here because his striking is better.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Buckley -200
Viacheslav Borshchev vs Maheshate Hayisaer
- Viacheslav Borshchev
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Maheshate Hayisaer
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Garcia. Beat a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Despite losing to Mike Davis, I think Borshchev leveled up his striking to a 65 grade as he out landed him 62 to 27. Borshchev lost because of Davis’ wrestling, but that won’t be an issue with Maheshate, who’s mainly a striker. I see Borshchev as the superior striker with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Borshchev by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Borshchev -350
Michael Johnson vs Diego Ferreira
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-12 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Marc Diakiese and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 38
- UFC record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Beneil Dariush.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I had Ferreira with 60 striking going into his fight with 65 striker Mateusz Gamrot. The market agreed as Gamrot closed as a -210 favorite. But despite the result, Ferreira losing due to injury, he actually slightly out struck Gamrot. And I’m very confident in Gamrot’s striking being a 65 in that fight. So his stand up has gotten better. Has Johnson really leveled back up to 65 tools? I’m not sure. He wasn’t supposed to beat Diakiese. I do know for sure Diakiese has 65 wrestling which Johnson matched. And I do know Johnson outstruck him 79 to 52. So I’m going to give the numbers the benefit of the doubt. But I do think Fereira’s grappling will give Johnson problems.
Chris’ Pick: Ferreira by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Fereira -135
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Vanessa Demopoulos
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Silvana Juarez and Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Maria Oliveira.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Demopoulos’ fight with Oliveira was interesting. The line closed as a pick em. But each dominated in their own way. When the fight was on the feet, Oliveira out struck her 80 to 18. Washout. But Demopoulos won because most of the fight, she was able to control Oliveira on the ground. This is a great matchup for Kowalkiewicz. She’s already demonstrated her 65 wrestling. And her striking is on par with Oliveira.
Chris’ Pick: Kowalkiewicz by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kowalkiewicz -375
Orion Cosce vs Gilbert Urbina
- Orion Cosce
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Blood Diamond.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Gilbert Urbina
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It’s been almost 2 years since we’ve seen Urbina. Last time out, he fought Bryan Battle on 10 days notice. Showed 60 grappling in the 1st round, but then gassed out in the beginning of the 2nd round. I think if he had a regular camp, that wouldn’t have happened. And even if the grappling is more of a 55, it’s likely he shows up better anyway because it’s been so long since we’ve seen him. But Cosce should be able to neutralize his grappling, should have more power, should eke out a close win.
Chris’ Pick: Cosce by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Cosce -150
Ilir Latifi vs Rodrigo Nascimento
- Ilir Latifi
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Ovince St Preux. Beat Alexei Oleinik and Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rodrigo Nascimento
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker. Split decision over Tanner Boser.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Despite Latifi being 9 years older, I do see him having the one advantage in this fight which is having more power. Which is a big deal at heavyweight. I don’t see Nascimento being able to keep Latifi down, which means he’ll have to stand and trade and that’ll be problematic.
Chris’ Pick: Latifi by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Latifi -150
Chase Hooper vs Nick Fiore
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Colares and Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Nick Fiore
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I know Mateusz Rebecki is good, but he really dominated Fiore. Rebecki out struck him 63 to 28, had over 8 minutes of control time. I think I was over rating Fiore, so I downgraded his tools. Steve Garcia is definitely better at 145 lbs, but I’ve clearly over rated Hooper’s striking. Definitely not a 60. And Hooper also lacks durability. He’s not able to absorb much damage. Fiore probably has more power than Hooper, but not as much as some of the other guys Hooper has faced like Garcia. Hooper should be able to get the better of Fiore on the ground, but it’s possible Fiore’s grappling could be a 60. Hooper should win, but there’s some risk here.
Chris’ Pick: Hooper by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Hooper -200
Natalia Silva vs Victoria Leonardo
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-5-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Victoria Leonardo
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0-1 striker. Beat Mandy Bohm and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Big mismatch here. Silva has proven to have 65 wrestling. Even if Leonardo comes in with better wrestling, she’s still going to be forced to stand and trade which won’t be good for her.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -500
Takashi Sato vs Themba Gorimbo
- Takashi Sato
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 13-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Either AJ Fletcher leveled up or Gorimbo isn’t as good as I thought. Fletcher closed as a -300 favorite in Gorimbo’s debut. I thought that was way heavy, that Fletcher should be at -125. But Fletcher was able to control Gorimbo for the most part. I’m confident in where I had Fletcher graded so I think it’s more likely I was over rating Gorimbo. If I’m right, I expect Sato to knock Gorimbo out.
Chris’ Pick: Sato by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Sato -175