Kai Kara France vs Amir Albazi
- Kai Kara France
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Askar Askarov and Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Amir Albazi
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 16-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Francisco Figueiredo, Malcolm Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, and a 6-2 striker. Knocked out Alessandro Costa. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I think Albazi’s striking is a 65 now. He showed 60 striking in the 1st round of his last fight with Costa, hurt Costa in the 2nd and then it was one way traffic after that. But when Albazi started to land more in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, did that have more to do with Costa being hurt or Albazi’s striking being better all along? I could be wrong, but I’m going to upgrade Kara France’s power to a 75. Not that the power is going to determine who wins this fight. I see Kara France as having the ability to keep the fight on the feet and his striking is better with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Kara France by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kara France -350
Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda
- Alex Caceres
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 15-11
- Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Submitted Seung Woo Choi. Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 2-1 in 2nd UFC stint. 5-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tucker Lutz. Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Is it possible that Caceres is unlocking power in his hands this late into his career after knocking out Erosa? It’s possible, but not likely. All four of Erosa’s last losses have come by KO. Caceres should win here though, land more. But he just has to watch out for Pineda’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Caceres by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Caceres -150
Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler
- Jim Miller
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 24-16
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Donald Cerrone, Roosevelt Roberts, and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jesse Butler
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-4
- Key Losses: Lost to a 5-3 grappler and an 8-5 grappler.
- Key WIns: Beat a 9-2 striker.
- Striking: fringe average (45)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Ludovit Klein is out, Jared Gordon is out, and Butler steps in on 2 days notice. And he’s fighting up a weight class. Miller still has legit 60 tools. I’m happy the UFC was able to get Miller a fight, but this is a clear mismatch.
Chris’ Pick: Miller by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Miller -700
Tim Elliott vs Victor Altamirano
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-10
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Tagir Ulanbekov, Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador, a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I still think Vinicius Salvador had a power advantage going into their fight, but Altamirano won with superior cardio. Salvador slowed down in the 3rd round and that was the difference. Elliott is coming off one of the biggest wins of his career over Ulanbekov. I think he’s a bit better than Altamirano everywhere. Can definitely say Ulanbekov was a tougher matchup than Altamirano.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Elliott -300
Karine Silva vs Ketlen Souza
- Karine Silva
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-4
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho, a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Ketlen Souza
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Souza has some hype coming into her UFC debut. She gets a tough test with Silva who also has some hype. Total coin flip fight. Souza could show up a bit better than where I have her graded. Or the jitters could get to her too. I think Silva is the safer pick.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -125
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Bojan Velickovic to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a well rounded 17-5 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Benoit St. Denis and Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision win over Lyman Good.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market thought Abubakar had 65 wrestling going into his last fight with Omargadzhiev, I disagreed thinking it was a 60 tool, but the market was right. Abubakar was able to take Omargadzhiev down repeatedly. And he should have some success taking Zaleski dos Santos down too. But Zaleski dos Santos has a big power advantage that I think will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Zaleski dos Santos -135
Daniel Santos vs Johnny Munoz Jr
- Daniel Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out John Castaneda, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Johnny Munoz Jr
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Santos vs Castaneda was like two fights. In the 1st, Castaneda showed no respect. Blitzed Santos, was confident he’d be able to get Santos out. Emptied the gas tank. But Santos withstood the damage. Showed he had better cardio. And knocked Castaneda out in the 2nd round. Really impressive. Munoz will probably want to go to his bread and butter here, his grappling. But I think Santos will repeatedly get back up and tire Munoz out. I see Santos taking over in the 2nd half.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -150
Andrei Arlovski vs Don’tale Mayes
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 44
- UFC Record: 12-10 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell. Split decision wins over Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market was a bit higher on Mayes than I was in the Augusto Sakai fight, thinking Mayes had 65 striking. And the market was right, I was under rating him. To my surprise, Mayes actually landed more 24 to 21. Arlovski had won 4 fights in a row until getting run over by Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The lazy narrative would be to say he’s on the decline now. But we’ve all been saying that for years and he’s still here. What I will say is that Mayes is the better striker and will have way more power.
Chris’ Pick: Mayes by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mayes -300
John Castaneda vs Muin Gafurov
- John Castaneda
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 19-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Miles Johns. Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Muin Gafurov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-1 grappler, a 5-1 grappler, and a 10-2-1 grappler. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Gafurov comes in on a week’s notice. It’s possible Gafurov’s improved since we saw him on the Contender with Chad Anheliger showing 60ish wrestling, tool could be a 55. I don’t think that matters here though because Castaneda should be able to stuff the take downs, win on the feet pretty easily.
Chris’ Pick: Castaneda by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Castaneda -350
Muhammad Naimov vs Jamie Mullarkey
- Muhammad Naimov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over Michael Johnson
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
It’s possible Mullarkey improved his wrestling to a 65 in his lasy fight with Francisco Prado, but I haven’t watched enough of Prado to be really confident where his skills are at. More than likely Kutateladze will be able to take Mullarkey down and grind him out for 3 rounds. And Naimov steps in on a few days notice. Not the most competitive matchup here, but probably the best the UFC could do. Mullarkey wins however he wants.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mullarkey -550
Jinh Yu Frey vs Elise Reed
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision losses to Vanessa Demopoulos and Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat Ashley Yoder, Gloria de Paula, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Elise Reed
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I think people were sleeping on Reed. Loma Lookboonmee came in as a monster -335 favorite and I thought it was way, way too heavy. And based on what we saw in the 1st round, I was right. But then Lookboonmee got a take down. Reed wasn’t respecting Lookboonmee’s grappling and snuck a choke in on Reed. I’m not super confident in the pick, but I do think Reed is the right side. She’s 7 years younger. Will have more power. And I think the odds of her showing up improved are pretty good.
Chris’ Pick: Reed by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Reed -125
Luan Lacerda vs Da’Mon Blackshear
- Luan Lacerda
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Raulian Paiva, a 9-2 striker, a 5-2 striker, a 9-3 grappler, and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-5-1
- UFC Record: 0-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Submitted Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The fact that the UFC would pair Lacerda with Cody Stamann for his promotional debut shows how high they think of him. And despite the loss, Lacerda showed he belonged and made it a close fight. And I have no clue what happened to Blackshear between his Zalal fight and Basharat fight, but wow did he improve. Totally different guy. And I wasn’t the only one who thought this as the market closed with Basharat as a -425 favorite. Striking was close to equal at 42 to 36. Crazy. It’s possible Blackshear’s wrestling could be a 60 as Basharat edged him out in that area but I think it had more to do with Basharat having better cardio. I see Blackshear landing more and that striking advantage giving him the win.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Blackshear -175
Maxim Grishin vs Philipe Lins
- Maxim Grishin
- Age: 38
- Pro Record: 32-9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 205 lbs. 2-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
- Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Philipe Lins
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux, Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Beat Marcin Prachnio.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It’s hard to take much out of Lins KO over St Preux. OSP has been knocked out in now 3 of his last 4 fights. Grishin hasn’t fought in over a year, but he showed in beating Knight that he still has elite skills, despite his age. Grishin should win here as long as Lins doesn’t knock him out.
Chris’ Pick: Grishin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Grishin -135