Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana
- Amanda Nunes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 15-2
- Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Megan Anderson and Miesha Tate. Beat Julianna Pena, Felicia Spencer, and Valentina Shevchenko twice.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Macy Chiasson, Yana Kunitskaya, and Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Aldana came into the Chiasson fight as a 2 to 1 favorite, probably because the market thought she had 75 striking. But that instead the strikes were close to equal and she showed 70 striking instead. What did surprise me is how much improved her grappling turned out to be. Aldana was getting the better of the grappling, but it seemed she gassed out towards the middle of the 2nd round. After the 2nd Nunes vs Pena fight, we finally have answers. Nunes gassed out early in the 1st fight. Made Pena look better than she is. And Nunes did show her wrestling hasn’t regressed, it’s still a 70. However. Despite all the knock downs on the feet, Pena actually landed more shots 59 to 57. Meaning that yes, Nunes has plus 70 power, but her striking is a 70, not a 75. So I know people might be saying, oh Nunes is back, she was dominant. But on paper, looking at the skills, this fight is a coin flip. And I’m picking Aldana because of how well the Lobo gym in Mexico has been outperforming the market. Alex Grasso. Diego Lopes. Aldana is on the upswing and Nunes’ preparation is now in question.
Chris’ Pick: Aldana by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aldana -125
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 21-9
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Beneil Dariush
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 16-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plusplus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
We all know how good Mateusz Gamrot is. The market had him as a -210 favorite over Dariush. But Dariush won because he leveled up. I thought Dariush would be able to stuff take downs and would have more power. But Dariush 52 to 29. Incredible that he’s gotten to another level after 21 UFC fights. And what was the most surprising thing of Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev? The striking. Small sample, but Makhachev out landed him 21 to 10. I had thought Oliveira had improved his striking to a 75 in the Gaethje fight but that looks like an outlier. His striking against Poirier and Chandler also showed a 70 grade. And that’s the edge that wins Dariush the fight. I see him staying out of harm’s way on the ground and winning on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Dariush by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dariush -200
Mike Malott vs Adam Fugitt
- Mike Malott
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Yohan Lainesse, a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Adam Fugitt
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Most were shocked when Fugitt upset Kinoshita, but I wasn’t. Fight actually played out how I thought it would. Fugitt showed his skills in his debut fight with Michael Morales and they carried over to the Kinoshita fight. I’m very convinced that Lainesse has 60 striking so when I saw Malott take him down easily and get minutes later get the submission, the grappling tool is a 70 for me now. So it’s possible that Kinoshita is better than I thought, which could make Fugitt better than I thought, but more than likely Malott is going to land more strikes.
Chris’ Pick: Malott by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Malott -225
Dan Ige vs Nate Landwehr
- Dan Ige
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Lingo and Ludovit Klein. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). Majority decision over David Onama.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I just can’t bring myself to giving Ige 70 power yet. I know he just knocked out Jackson. Only his 3rd KO win in 14 UFC fights. Landwehr’s had a great start in the UFC, he’s got plus cardio, but I think Ige is too smart to gas out, knows how to fight efficiently and Ige has just shown a higher level of striking.
Chris’ Pick: Ige by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ige -200
Marc Andre Barriault vs Eryk Anders
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-6 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jun Yong Park, Lyoto Machida, and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Daukaus and Rafael Natal. Beat Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Anders first two years in the UFC, he’d gotten 3 KO wins. Then the next three years, zero KO’s. His last fight though, he knocked out a quality fighter in Daukaus. Could his power be back to a 60, despite being 36 years old now? Maybe. And for some fighters, their cardio is at such a high level that it can be used as a tool to win fights. That’s what Barriault did in his last fight with Marquez. Strikes were close to equal, but the fight was going at such a high pace that Marquez ran out of gas mid way through and it was all over after that. And the obvious strategy here is for Barriault to try to tire Anders out as well. I think that’s what wins Barriault the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Barriault by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Barriault -175
Nassourdine Imavov vs Chris Curtis
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley, Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Imavov proved he’s one of the elite at 185 lbs, losing a really close fight to Sean Strickland. And Curtis proved that his tools haven’t gotten past 65 grades yet. He’s taken on better competition in Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum and fell short. Imavov also has 70 tools and should be able to out strike Curtis.
Chris’ Pick: Imavov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Imavov -250
Miranda Maverick vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m still convinced that the 125 lb version of Young has 60 wrestling. Thus, when Maverick dominated her with take downs, I think it showed that Maverick elevated her wrestling tool to a 70 grade. Jasudavicius has potential, but this fight is going to prove that Maverick is a couple tiers ahead of her in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Maverick -400
Aiemann Zahabi vs Qileng Aori
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drako Rodriguez. Beat Ricky Turcios and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 20-9
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jay Perrin and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
In hindsight, I’ve learned that Qileng barely eked out a decision win over Perrin because Perrin was better than where I had him graded. So Qileng retains his tools despite the fight with Perrin being close to equal. I can’t deny Zahabi anymore. He’s for sure leveled up in his past couple fights. I know Turcios’ has 55 tools. Very slight edge to Zahabi in this fight being that it’s possible Qileng is starting to unlock KO power. Coin flip fight otherwise.
Chris’ Pick: Zahabi by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zahabi -125
Kyle Nelson vs Blake Bilder
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Blake Bilder
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Shane Young.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The market thought Young had 60 tools, I disagreed, thinking his tools were 55’s and I turned out to be right. Bilder is as good as I thought he was. The win wasn’t an upset, it was the market over rating Young. That said, this is a decent matchup for Nelson as he has more power than Bilder. Nelson just has to make sure he stays economical with his output to make sure he doesn’t gas out as Bilder probably has better cardio and will want to push the pace.
Chris’ Pick: Nelson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nelson -150
Steve Erceg vs David Dvorak
- Steve Erceg
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- David Dvorak
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Beat by a 6-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Beat Jordan Espiniosa and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Matt Schnell pulls out and in steps Erceg on less than a week’s notice. I watched Erceg take on current UFC fighter Shannon Ross. He sat down Ross with a right hand, eventually got the submission. It’s possible he has 55 power, but only 1 of his 9 wins are by KO, 6 by submission. Erceg’s best tool is his grappling. Dvorak won’t let him get to it. I just don’t see any path to victory for Erceg here.
Chris’ Pick: Dvorak by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dvorak -450
Diana Belbita vs Maria Oliveira
- Diana Belbita
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Beat Hannah Goldy. Majority decision win over a 0-2 fighter in 2017.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Grappling: average (45)
- Maria Oliveira
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over Gloria de Paula.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Belbita’s 60 striking was reaffirmed against fellow 60 striker Gloria de Paula, as their striking was close to equal. But Belbita lost because she’s still one dimensional, showing her wrestling is only a 50 tool as de Paula was able to control her for chunks of time throughout the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Oliveira -250