Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 15-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision wins over Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Sterling’s grappling is a borderline 75. In the Yan fight, he was able to control Yan with body triangles and getting Yan stuck vs showing complete superiority. And it’s hard to take much away from the Cejudo fight because we don’t really know how good Cejudo is at this point. O’Malley had the performance of his career against Yan. Not only was he able to get back up quick every time he was taken down, but his cardio arguably was better than Yan’s. I will acknowledge the possibility his wrestling could be a 65 with how many times he was taken down but I think the tool is closer to a 70. But the big headline coming out of that fight is how he leveled up his striking to a 75 grade. Out struck Yan 80 to 47. Look, is Sterling going to take O’Malley down? Yes. Is Sterling a more dangerous grappler? Yes. Do I think O’Malley will be able to continuously get back up after being taken down? Yes. Sterling has never faced the type of power O’Malley has. Seems like the weight cut for Sterling continues to get tougher. So that makes me question how durable his chin is. And let’s not forget, Sterling took a lot of damage in the Cejudo fight just 3 months ago. I think ultimately the fight will be on the feet long enough throughout the 25 minutes for O’Malley to catch Sterling.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: O’Malley -135
Weili Zhang vs Amanda Lemos
- Weili Zhang
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Submitted Carla Esparza. Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Michelle Waterson and Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I didn’t see much striking between Zhang and Esparza and Lemos and Rodriguez. Sample was small. But from both fights, it’s possible Zhang and Lemos have elevated their striking to 75’s. This is a coin flip fight for me, I wouldn’t be surprised if either won. But I give Lemos a slight edge because to the eye it seems like she has more power and is more likely to get a KO.
Chris’ Pick: Lemos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lemos -125
Neil Magny vs Ian Machado Garry
- Neil Magny
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 24-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Submitted Daniel Rodriguez. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision wins over Phil Rowe and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
It’s entirely possible that Magny’s wrestling could still be a 65, but I’ve just seen too much of him lately that makes it more plausible the tool is a 60. With the way Shavkat Rakhmonov and Gilbert Burns out classed him. And while I think it’s likely Rowe improved his wrestling to a 60, the wrestling in that fight was close to equal, maybe giving Magny a slight edge. Maybe. Garry has a lot of hype right now. Knocking out Rodriguez in the 1st round will propel him even more. But I’m not 100% sold on him. His fight with Rodriguez only lasted 4 minutes and Garry only out struck him 12 to 7. It looks like he’s close to 70 striking, but I’m having a hard time getting past his Song fight this past March. Got taken down a couple times. Garry got hurt bad, almost got knocked out. I know for a fact Song’s wrestling isn’t better than a 60. Is it possible Garry showed up improved in the Rodriguez fight? Sure. Very possible. But we haven’t seen it yet. I don’t Magny taking this fight on short notice shouldn’t compromise his cardio. Should be fine there. And Garry hasn’t gone against someone that’s a grinder like Magny and durable. Someone who will test Garry’s cardio. And if Magny’s wrestling is closer to a 65, he could be a live underdog. All that said, Garry should win having more power, doing more damage.
Chris’ Pick: Garry by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Garry -125
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-5-1
- UFC Record: 2-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Jose Johnson, Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Bautista is a great prospect. But I need to downgrade his power to a 55. He’s had 8 UFC fights. Only 1 knockout, back against Miles Johns 3 years ago. Blackshear takes the fight on less than a week’s notice. Just fought Johnson last Saturday, August 12. Blew expectations out of the water. All he needed was 2 take downs to submit Johnson in less than 4 minutes. And I’m pretty sure Johnson has 60 wrestling. So small sample, but it looks like Blackshear’s grappling has elevated to a 70. Crazy considering Blackshear is taking this fight just one week after he fought, but on paper, he has better skills than Bautista and I think he wins.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Blackshear -175
Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 14-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Rob Font and Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Pedro Munhoz
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Chris Guttierez, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Just when I thought Munhoz’s striking tool had creeped back up to a 70 grade, from the Sean O’Malley fight, he then wins, beats Guttierez, but he did get out struck 75 to 52 by Guttierez. So it looks like the O’Malley fight was an outlier. I really like Vera here. He’s going to have a lot more power and won’t have to worry about conserving his cardio to go 5 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Vera -250
Chris Weidman vs Brad Tavares
- Chris Weidman
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-5 UFC at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum. Beat Omari Akhmedov and Lyoto Machida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 14-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Weidman returns after 2 years, recovering from a broken leg, in what could be his retirement fight. Weidman doesn’t have the power he used to, hasn’t knocked anyone out since Belfort in 2015. He won’t be a threat on the feet, won’t be able to take Tavares down. I don’t see much of a path to victory for Weidman.
Chris’ Pick: Tavares by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tavares -200
Gregory Rodrigues vs Dennis Tiuliulin
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-7
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Despite getting knocked out in his last fight, I’ve seen too much of Rodrigues to push me off his striking being a 65 grade. Straight forward fight. Rodrigues is better on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -250
Austin Hubbard vs Kurt Holobaugh
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kurt Holobaugh
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Hubbard’s last fight with Roosevelt Roberts wasn’t the most inspiring, he hasn’t really shown much improvement since being in the UFC, but he still has well rounded 60 tools. As for Holobaugh, I think he’s at his ceiling. And I think Hubbard is a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Hubbard by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hubbard -225
Brad Katona vs Cody Gibson
- Brad Katona
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cody Gibson
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 19-8
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Francisco Rivera. Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat John Dodson and a 19-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Really rare for a journeyman like Gibson to not only make his way back to the UFC, but also show he’s really improved. Particularly in his grappling. Really out classed Rico Disciullo on the ground on TUF, who probably has 55 wrestling. But he’s going to have a hard time beating Katona who really should never have been cut from the UFC in the first place. He’ll stuff Gibson’s take downs and land more on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Katona by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Katona -300
Andre Petroski vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Wellington Turman.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-8
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Petroski is really close to his wrestling being a 70. He was able to control Turman for almost the whole 3rd round, but that had more to do with Turman being out of gas. Striking is still a 60. And Petroski is a similar opponent to Meerschaert’s last opponent, Joe Pyfer. Meerschaert’s chin isn’t great and I think we’re going to see a replay here.
Chris’ Pick: Petroski by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petroski -175
Andrea Lee vs Natalia Silva
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Maycee Barber, Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-5-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo, Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I had Lee’s striking as a 70 going into her last fight with Maycee Barber. And the market disagreed. Barber closed as a -275 favorite. And I thought Barber’s striking was a 65. But the fight turned out to be really close, striking close to equal. I concluded that both had 65 striking. But instead, in Barber’s next fight she takes on 70 striker Amanda Ribas and striking is close to equal there. Therefore, Lee’s striking is a 70 as I originally thought. And Lee also rebounded from being taken down and controlled by Viviane Araujo. She actually got the better of the grappling with Barber and reaffirmed it’s a 65 tool. Silva’s striking and power could be a 70, might be under rating it. This is going to be an interesting fight because on the one hand, I do think Lee lands more, but on the other hand, Silva has way, way more power and I don’t think Lee can trade with her for 15 minutes and not get knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -125
Maryna Moroz vs Karine Silva
- Maryna Moroz
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Mariya Agapova and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Karine Silva
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Ketlen Souza, Poliana Botelho, a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
We don’t have big sample sizes from Silva, but I’ve seen enough of her grappling to confidently grade it a 65 now. Jennifer Maia has had too many fights for me to think she’s still developing. She’s at her ceiling I think. That said, Maia out struck Moroz 101 to 78. So I have to downgrade Moroz’s striking to a 60. This fight should test Silva’s striking but I’m pretty sure she has more power and there’s also a chance her grappling could be a 70, so she’s the safer pick here.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -175