Max Holloway vs The Korean Zombie
- Max Holloway
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 20-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Arnold Allen, Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: neat plus plus (75)
- The Korean Zombie
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Yair Rodriguez with 1 second left in their fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano. Beat Dan Ige.
- Striking: plis (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
This is Holloway’s fight to lose. Zombie will have more power, but Holloway has proven to be one of the most durable fighters in UFC history. So I think Holloway’s chin holds up and he lands more. I’ve also heard this could be Zombie’s retirement fight and you know how that goes with most fighters.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holloway -250
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-5 at 205 lbs. 9-8 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Either Johnny Walker’s striking leveled up to a 75 or Smith’s striking has regressed to a 65. One or the other. Because Walker out struck Smith 81 to 38. Big gap. Coin flip fight, but I have a lot more confidence in Spann’s striking being a 70 than Smith.
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Spann -125
Giga Chikadze vs Alex Caceres
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. Beat Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alex Caceres
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-11
- Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
- Key Wins: Submitted Seung Woo Choi. Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Even though Chikadze lost his last fight to Calvin Kattar, he still impressed me. Especially his wrestling. Kattar got Chikadze down in the 1st round and with Chikadze not able to get back up, I was thinking, oh, this is going to be a lopsided fight. But that was the last time that Kattar was able to take Chikadze down, so it seemed like Giga just didn’t want to spend the energy to get back up in the 1st round. So Chikadze’s wrestling is now a 70 tool for me. This is Chikadze’s first fight back in almost 2 years. Winnable match up for him. Chikadze’s power should make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Chikadze by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Chikadze -300
Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia
- Rinya Nakamura
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 10-2 fighter and a 9-2 grappler. Beat a 23-6 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Fernie Garcia
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Garcia took on 60 wrestler Brady Hiestand and lost. Was controlled on the ground for over 9 minutes? So what do you think Nakamura is going to do?
Chris’ Pick: Nakamura by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Nakamura -800
Taila Santos vs Erin Blanchfield
- Taila Santos
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mara Borella Romero.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Wood. Beat Roxanne Modafferi, Gillian Robertson, Molly McCann, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Jessica Andrade, Molly McCann, and JJ Aldrich. Beat Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
I still think Taila Santos beat Valentina Shevchenko. Story of the fight was Santos being able to take Shevchenko down repeatedly. But I think it has more to do with Shevchenko’s wrestling being more of a 70 than a 75 vs Santos elevating her wrestling to a top of the scale 80. Although the latter is possible. And Blanchfield definitely proved that her striking is a 70 with the way her striking was close to equal against Andrade. Close fight here, but Santos is most likely to win because I don’t think Blanchfield will be able to take her down and I don’t think she’ll be able to hold up against Santos’ power for 15 minutes.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -135
Junior Tafa vs Parker Porter
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Parker Porter
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Knocked out Braxton Smith. Beat Alan Baudot, Chase Sherman, and Josh Parisian.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Tafa better have worked on his wrestling because Porter presents the same type of problem Tafa experienced in his loss to Mohammed Usman. Matter of fact, Porter’s wrestling might even be a bit better.
Chris’ Pick: Porter by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Porter -200
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Lukasz Brzeski
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 9-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Lukasz Brzeski
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
- Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 20-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Cortes-Acosta’s striking is a couple levels above Brzeski’s and I expect him to cruise here, especially in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Cortes-Acosta -350
Toshiomi Kazama vs Garrett Armfield
- Toshiomi Kazama
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-2 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Garrett Armfield
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Armfield stepped up on a week’s notice to take on a potential contender in David Onama. And the line closed with Onama as a -800 favorite. But the fight turned out to be really close, at least in the beginning. They grappled back and forth in the 1st round. Striking was close to equal the whole fight. But Onama started taking over in the middle of the 2nd round as all the grappling caused him to run out of gas and Onama finished it with an arm triangle. What complicates grading Armfield is the fact that he also fought up a weight class. Onama has 60 wrestling and is a featherweight, but this fight between Armfield and Rodriguez will be at bantamweight. I had Armfield’s wrestling as a 60 going into that Onama fight, there’s no way I can grade it any less than a 60, but it could be a 65. And being that Armfield was fighting up a weight class against a 65 striker and the striking was close to equal, no way I can grade Armfield’s striking any less than a 65, right? Onama did out strike him 27 to 20 in the fight, so Armfield’s striking being a 65 is probably the right grade for now. I see Armfield being able to get Kazama out early just like Rinya Nakamura did.
Chris’ Pick: Armfield by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Armfield -400
Chidi Njokuani vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 185 lbs. 6-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I have both graded identicially, but I give Oleksiejczuk a couple slight edges in that he’s 5 years younger, more durable, and has better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oleksiejczuk -135
Kenan Song vs Rolando Bedoya
- Kenan Song
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Rolando Bedoya
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khaos Williams.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I thought Bedoya was going to get smashed by Khaos Williams in his UFC debut. But Bedoya turned out to be way better than I thought and actually out struck Williams 136 to 126. Close fight, but if Bedoya’s chin could hold up against Williams’ power, he should be fine with Kenan’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Bedoya by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bedoya -175
Yusaku Kinoshita vs Billy Goff
- Yusaku Kinoshita
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Billy Goff
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler and a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I might be over rating Goff by a smidge, but he was so impressive on the Contender. You think 65 striking might be too high a grade, but he out struck Shimon Smotritsky 33 to 11. Kinoshita draws another tough assignment and unfortunately for him, I think Goff’s better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Goff by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Goff -200
JJ Aldrich vs Na Liang
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Na Liang
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Na was just knocked out in about a minute, but that happens. Doesn’t mean her skills are lost. And despite the 0-2 record, I believe in where I’ve graded her tools. No shame in Aldrich losing to Ariane Lipski, it just means Lipski showed up improved. The way Aldrich fought against Erin Blanchfield is still the best way to measure her skills. I see Aldrich getting take downs this time and she should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Aldrich -275
Seung Woo Choi vs Jarno Errens
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Culibao.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jarno Errens
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 23-7 fighter. Beat a 9-2 grappler and an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: average (50)
I’ve seen too much of Choi to be moved off of where I graded him. So I’ll chalk his KO loss to Michael Trizano due to Trizano probably leveling up. This is Choi’s fight to lose. I see him having success taking Errens down just like William Gomis did.
Chris’ Pick: Choi by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Choi -450