Ciryl Gane vs Serghei Spivac
- Ciryl Gane
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
This is a good matchup because 6 months after Gane got submitted by Jon Jones, he gets thrown back in against another fighter with 70 grappling. I think normally, he would’ve been able to get up, but I think he got stuck being put in a position he had never been in before and didn’t know what to do. Me picking Gane here, I’ll admit, I’m projecting that Gane will show up with improved wrestling. He has to, right? You’d think wrestling and grappling would’ve been the only thing he’s been working on. He’s had 65 wrestling. All he needs to do is get better in that area and he should have no problem out stricking Spivac on the feet. Not a slam dunk pick. Not a lock at all. But Gane is most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Gane by 4th round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Gane -175
Rose Namajunas vs Manon Fiorot
- Rose Namajunas
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Unless the weight cuts to 115 lbs were really tough, I don’t know how moving up to 125 lbs makes sense for Namajunas. She was afraid of strawweight Esparza taking her down. Well, Fiorot is just as good a wrestler, but even bigger than Esparza. Fiorot has also proved to have borderline 75 striking. Her career is on the uptrend. I just don’t see how Namajunas wins this fight, unless of course, the weight cut to 115 lbs was hurting her.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fiorot -250
Benoit St Denis vs Thiago Moises
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 155 lbs. 3-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Gabriel Miranda and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Melquizael Costa, Christos Giagos, and Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I still remember how badly St Denis lost his UFC debut. How lopsided it was. But that was up a weight class and on short notice. Since then, he keeps improving every time we see him and looks like he’s going to be a legit title contender. Especially after he was able to take Bonfim down and submit him. And hey, even the striking with Bonfim was close to equal. Super impressive. Moises is a successful UFC fight. But I think he’s reached his ceiling and St Denis is better everywhere. Especially in the stirking.
Chris’ Pick: St Denis by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: St Denis -400
Volkan Oezdemir vs Bogdan Guskov
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Paul Craig. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Bogdan Guskov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-3 fighter and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I don’t normally do MMA math, but current UFC fighter Albert Duraev knocked out Vyacheslav Vasilevsky. And Guskov recently fought Vasilevsky and Guskov got knocked out in 3 minutes. Since then, Guskov has four 1st round knockouts in a row, albeit over poor competition, but it’s possible he’s improved since the Vasilevsky loss. Either way, Oezdemir is a known commodity, he’s consistent. You know what you’re going to get with him and he has margin to win.
Chris’ Pick: Oezdemir by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oezdemir -450
William Gomis vs Yanis Ghemmouri
- William Gomis
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Francis Marshall. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Yanis Ghemmouri
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Ghemmouri’s wrestling could be a 60, but in my opinion, from what I’ve seen, the tool isn’t there yet.
Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Gomis -400
Morgan Charriere vs Manolo Zecchini
- Morgan Charriere
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-9-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out a 17-4 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Manolo Zecchini
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-3
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Coin flip fight. But I think there’s a possibility that Zecchini’s striking is a 60 which would give him an edge on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Zecchini by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Zecchini -125
Taylor Lapilus vs Caolan Loughran
- Taylor Lapilus
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Caolan Loughran
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Loughran’s last fight in Cage Warriors was of UFC level quality, fight went back and forth, but his chin held up and knocked out a 9-0 striker. Very possible his striking could be a 65, but I didn’t like how often he got hit.
Chris’ Pick: Loughran by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Loughran -125
Ange Loosa vs Rhys McKee
- Ange Loosa
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat AJ Fletcher. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Rhys McKee
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-4-1
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert in 2016, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Upgrading Loosa’s tools to 60’s comes with some caveats. He did out strike Fletcher 95 to 80. But Fletcher knocked him down in the 2nd and gassed out trying to finish him. So Loosa cruised in the 3rd round because of that. I’m more confident in Loosa’s wrestling being a 60 and I’m pretty sure his wrestling isn’t better than his striking. McKee’s fight with Alex Morono is helpful in grading where his tools are at, but that fight was almost 3 years ago, so it’s possible he’s improved. But I’m picking Loosa because Justin Burlinson had some success taking McKee down in Cage Warriors and I think Loosa’s wrestling is better than Burlinson’s.
Chris’ Pick: Loosa by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Loosa -135
Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards
- Nora Cornolle
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
It’s possible Cornolle’s striking could be a 60, but Edwards is way too much, too soon for her.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Edwards -325
Farid Basharat vs Kleydson Rodrigues
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Kleydson Rodrigues
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to CJ Vergara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shannon Ross. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
With how impressive Blackshear has looked lately, it makes Basharat’s win over him even more impressive. I might be going out on a limb with grading Basharat’s wrestling a 70, but Blackshear proved early on that his wrestling was at least a 65 and Basharat got the better of that in their fight. Rodrigues is explosive and will have more power, but his cardio isn’t the best. I see Basharat going for take downs early, often, and tiring Rodrigues out.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Basharat -225
Zarah Fairn vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Zarah Fairn
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 6-5
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat Nora Cornolle and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Fairn was robbed in her last fight. Out struck Josiane Nunes 107 to 82. She could be the most talented fighter on the roster with a UFC record of 0-3. Cavalcanti is coming off the biggest win in her career, went 5 rounds with Melissa Croden, who will likely be in the UFC someday. But Fairn will be bigger, have more power. She’s fought UFC title contenders. I think she gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Fairn by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fairn -225