Lewis vs Llontop, Neves vs Diniz, Nguyen vs Cunningham Fight Picks – Contender Series – September 12, 2023

Malik Lewis vs James Llontop

  • Malik Lewis
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 15-3 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • James Llontop
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 13-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-1-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Lewis is really good. He almost finished Trevor Peek in their Contender fight. It’s possible his striking could be a 65. I don’t think Llontop has anything to offer against Lewis.

Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Lewis -250


Eduardo Neves vs Jhonata Diniz

  • Eduardo Neves
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 wrestler and a well rounded 6-0-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Jhonata Diniz
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 5-0
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: average (50)

Coin flip heavyweight fight. Will probably be on the feet. I give Diniz a slight edge as I think his cardio is better and he can change levels and take Diniz down if he needs to.

Chris’ Pick: Neves by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Neves -135


Steve Nguyen vs AJ Cunningham

  • Steve Nguyen
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • AJ Cunningham
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to a 5-3 grappler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Not impressed by Cunningham. Took on a 5-4 grappler in his last fight. All 5 of the opponents win came by submission. And yet, the striking with Cunningham was close to equal. Nguyen has the better striking.

Chris’ Pick: Nguyen by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Nguyen -300


Julia Polastri vs Patricia Alujas

  • Julia Polastri
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 11-3
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Patricia Alujas
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: average (50)

Alujas’ striking is barely a 55 for me. She got hit too much in her last fight, but that was almost 2 years ago, so she’s probably showing up improved. Polastri lost to rising contender Jasmine Jasudavicius on the Contender Series because of Jasudavicius’ wrestling. But Polastri did out strike Jasudavicius 60 to 37. And that was 2 years ago, so there’s potential for her to show up with 65 striking.

Chris’ Pick: Polastri by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Polastri -250


Jean Matsumoto vs Kasey Tanner

  • Jean Matsumoto
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 13-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Kasey Tanner
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 5-0
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Matsumoto took on another legit top prospect in LFA Brasil, a 7-0 striker and Matsumoto was really impressive. His wrestling was better than I thought. Tanner’s best tool is his wrestling. He won’t be able to get to it here. Possible Tanner’s striking is a 50. Matsumoto should land more.

Chris’ Pick: Matsumoto by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Matsumoto -250

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