Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Paul Craig
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 185 lbs. 9-6-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Craig looked great in his 185 lb. debut, although I think him knocking out Muniz on the ground had more to do with Muniz gassing out than Craig’s grappling being a 75. I’m very confident Silva has 70 striking. I’m confident Allen has 70 striking. He should be able to land more against Craig.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Allen -250
Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews
- Michael Morales
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles. Beat Max Griffin and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darrius Flowers. Beat Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I can’t deny Morales anymore. I had his striking graded a 60 going into his fight with Griffin. Not only was I under rating him, I think he showed up improved. Out struck Griffin 68 to 35
Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Morales -225
Chase Hooper vs Jordan Leavitt
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Colares and Daniel Teymur. Beat Nick Fiore and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Knocked out Victor Martinez. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Hooper moved up to 155 lbs against Fiore and his striking took an enormous step forward, out striking Fiore 97 to 34. I am still concerned about Hooper’s durability and ability to take strikes, but maybe with him not having such a tough weight cut, he’ll be able to absorb more damage. Leavitt is coming off his first non slam KO of his pro career. Maybe he’s unlocking more power in his hands. But that possibility of power is my only concern for Hooper who seems to be developing a volume striking, all out cardio style.
Chris’ Pick: Hooper by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hooper -200
Payton Talbott vs Nick Aguirre
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nick Aguirre
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I must have watched Talbott on the wrong night. Watched his last fight in Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat. Was underwhelmed. But then saw a completely different guy on the Contender. I think Aguirre’s last opponent Dan Argueta and Talbot have similar tools and expect Talbott to roll here.
Chris’ Pick: Talbott by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Talbott -450
Amanda Ribas vs Luana Pinheiro
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana. Beat Viviane Araujo. Split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Virna Jandiroba, Randa Markos, and MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes. Split decision over Michelle Waterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Bottom line, Ribas is much better at 115 lbs and she returns to that weight class here against Pinheiro. And even though she got knocked out by Maycee Barber last time out, that loss had more to do with Barber showing big time improvement. I believe in where Ribas is graded based on how she beat flyweight Viviane Araujo.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ribas -450
Uros Medic vs Myktybek Orolbai
- Uros Medic
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matthew Semelsberger, Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Myktybek Orolbai
- Age: NA
- Pro Record: 11-1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I thought Medic’s striking could’ve been a 65 leading into his Semelsberger fight and that turned out to be the case.
Chris’ Pick: Medic by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Medic -175
Jonathan Pearce vs Joanderson Brito
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani, Kai Kamaka III, and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales. Beat Darren Elkins and Christian Rodriguez
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pearce -350
Chad Anheliger vs Jose Johnson
- Chad Anheliger
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jesse Strader, Brady Hiestand, a 4-1 grappler, and a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 16-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jose Johnson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-8
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-1 grappler. Lost to a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a 4-1 wrestler, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -135
Denis Tiuliulin vs Christian Leroy Duncan
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-8
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Christian Leroy Duncan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Duncan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Duncan -200
Mick Parkin vs Caio Machado
- Mick Parkin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eduardo Neves. Beat Jamal Pogues.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Caio Machado
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Market closed with Pogues as a -150 favorite to beat Parkin, but Parkin showed up way, way improved. Out struck Pogues 92 to 34.
Chris’ Pick: Parkin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Parkin -250
Jeka Saragih vs Lucas Alexander
- Jeka Saragih
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Lucas Alexander
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Steven Peterson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
At one point, I thought Peterson’s striking could be a 65, based on how I high I was on Erosa’s striking. But turns out Erosa’s striking is more of a 60 and same for Peterson. Even still, Alexander out struck Peterson 78 to 25. That’s crazy. And I’m not the only one who was surprised as Peterson closed as a -150 favorite in that fight. Alexander’s wrestling could be a 65, but I haven’t seen enough of it yet. Alexander is easily going to win.
Chris’ Pick: Alexander by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Alexander -500
Lucie Pudilova vs Ailin Perez
- Lucie Pudilova
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joselyne Edwards and Irene Aldana.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Wu Yanan. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Ashlee Evans Smith
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Perez’s cardio really stood out in her last fight with Evans-Smith. The fact she was able to wrestle almost the whole 15 minutes, not everyone is able to do that.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Perez -175
Trey Ogden vs Nik Motta
- Trey Ogden
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jordan Leavitt.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Daniel Zellhuber and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nick Motta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cameron VanCamp, Joe Solecki, and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Motta by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Motta -150
Rafael Estevam vs Charles Johnson
- Rafael Ramos Estevam
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 grappler and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I couldn’t believe that Estevam was only a -225 favorite over Joao Elias, I thought Estevam would have a big advantage on the feet. But we never got there. Instead, they grappled all fight and Estvam won there, party because he’s better, but also partly because Elias ran out of gas. Estevam looks like a potential title contender and it’s possible his wrestling could be as high as a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Estevam by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Estevam -250