Yadong Song vs Chris Gutierez
- Yadong Song
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 9-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Alateng Heili, Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ok. Once and for all, Gutierez’s striking is a 70. He out landed Heili Alateng 110 to 38. I was blown away seeing Song have the ability to stuff most of Simon’s take downs. Wrestling is a 75 now. Also had Simon’s striking a 65 heading in, probably is a 70 and Song’s striking is probably a 75. Not the most confident about that, but most likely. I see Song being a bit better everywhere, especially with the speed.
Chris’ Pick: Song by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Song -300
Anthony Smith vs Khalil Rountree
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-5 at 205 lbs. 10-8 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Karl Roberson, Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders. Split decision over Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Smith was really, really impressive against Spann. And were it not for the 18 career UFC fights that he has and being 35 years old, I might be tempted to say his striking might have leveled up to a 75 grade. He did out strike Spann 90 to 50, which is crazy. Not close. Rountree has won four in a row, but the numbers and my eyes say that his skills aren’t that much better than before.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Smith -250
Nasrat Haqparast vs Jamie Mullarkey
- Nasrat Haqparast
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Landon Quinones, John Makdessi, Rafa Garcia, and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat John Makdessi. Split decision over Michael Johnson
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mullarkey -200
Su Mudaerji vs Tim Elliott
- Su Mudaerji
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Malcolm Gordon, a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Zarrukh Adashev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 12-11
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Victor Altamirano, Tagir Ulanbekov, Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Matt Schnell’s recent fight with Matheus Nicolau is further proof his striking is probably a 70, but at worst a 65. And even though Su lost to Schnell, it had more to do with him gassing out, trying to get the finish than Schnell being better. Su out struck him 35 to 16.
Chris’ Pick: Su by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Su -225
Jun Yong Park vs Andre Muniz
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Albert Duraev, Dennis Tiuliulin, and Joseph Holmes. Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision over Eryk Anders.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat Uriah Hall and an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I thought Muniz lost to Paul Craig because he gassed out towards the half way point in the fight. So for him to now fight a cardio machine like Park, that’s going to be tough. It’s possible I might be overrating Park’s wrestling. It could be a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Park -200
Kenan Song vs Kevin Jousset
- Kenan Song
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Rolando Bedoya.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Kevin Jousset
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Jousset’s debut was a bit puzzling. He was a -180 favorite against Crosbie. Which I disagreed with. Thought Crosbie’s striking would be better. And that’s what happened. Crosbie out landed him 36 to 25. But Crosbie made a mistake in not respecting Jousset on the ground, not protecting his neck. And Crosbie paid for it. There’s no way Kenan beat Bedoya. Bedoya out struck him 104 to 68. Nevertheless, I think Kenan will have more power and that should the difference in a close fight.
Chris’ Pick: Kenan by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kenan -135
Hyun Sung Park vs Shannon Ross
- Hyun Sung Park
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Shannon Ross
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-7
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Ashkan Mokhtarian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Park -200
Melquizael Costa vs Steve Garcia
- Melquizael Costa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 20-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Steve Garcia
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 145 lbs. 4-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, Chase Hooper, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lingo is no slouch and Costa dominated him. Striking was 93 to 39. Costa also proved to have better wrestling. Garcia looks better at featherweight but Costa will be too much.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Costa -400
Stephanie Egger vs Luana Santos
- Stephanie Egger
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Ailin Perez and Jessica Rose Clark. Knocked out Shanna Young and Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Luana Santos
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juliana Miller. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Egger getting submitted by Irina Alekseeva has more to do with Alekseeva being really good vs Egger not as good as we thought. Egger closed as a -300 favorite in that fight. It happens. Santos out performed the market big time. She closed as a -150 favorite over Miller. But out struck Miller 53 to 18 before knocking her out in the 1st round. Santos could be a future contender.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -250
Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Hernandez
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted Jesus Aguilar, CJ Vergara, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez and Carlos Candelario.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Beat Denys Bondar and a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: Taira by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Taira -600
Talita Alencar vs Rayanne Amanda
- Talita Alencar
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 4-0-1
- UFC Record: 0-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Stephanie Luciano to a draw.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Rayanne Amanda
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Alencar closed as a -190 favorite over Luciano. Market thought she had 65 grappling. But due to lack of cardio, the grappling is a 60. It’s also possible her striking could be a 55, but I can’t ignore the fact Luciano out struck her 65 to 15, which was especially lopsided in the second half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Alencar by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Alencar -175