Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling, Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 15-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t 100% sure going into the O’Malley vs Sterling fight that O’Malley had 75 striking. He fought Munhoz and Munhoz actually out struck him 26 to 25. Then he took on Yan and the first 2 rounds of striking had O’Malley edging him out before taking over in the 3rd round. Then the Sterling fight happens and the numbers don’t lie. Sterling, who I know for sure has 70 striking, was out striking O’Malley 16 to 10 up until the KO. It’s just O’Malley had more power. So I think this fight comes down to cardio and durability and Vera should be better in both areas. He also has the edge with him knocking O’Malley out in their first fight.
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 4th round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Vera -200
Dustin Poirier vs Benoit St Denis
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 21-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Michael Chandler and Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-0 at 155 lbs. 5-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I still think Poirier’s striking was a 75, but was is the keyword. The tool was definitely a 70 in the Gaethje fight. But, that was mostly from one round, in one fight. I could be wrong. Maybe the striking tool is still a 75 after all.
Chris’ Pick: Poirier by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Poirier -125
Kevin Holland vs Michael Page
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 170 lbs. 12-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Michael Page
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 21-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 28-5 grapper, a well rounded 17-3 fighter, a 9-3 striker, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 9-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler. Split decision over Douglas Lima.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I watched one of Page’s last fights against a 13-1 wrestler and was really underwhelmed with what I saw. Everybody thinks this will be a stand up fight but I think there’s a legit chance Holland wins with grappling here.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Holland -350
Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 170 lbs. 13-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Kevin Holland.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s possible Della Maddalena’s striking could be a 65. Holland out struck him 119 to 94. And I think everybody forgets how much trouble Bassil Hafez gave Della Maddalena with his wrestling.
Chris’ Pick: Burns by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Burns -250
Petr Yan vs Yadong Song
- Petr Yan
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Yadong Song
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 10-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Chris Gutierrez, Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
I was pretty sure that Song had 75 striking going into the Gutierez fight. But then Gutierez out strikes him 87 to 49. Wow. So I have no choice but to down grade the striking tool to a 70. But I still think this is Song’s fight to lose. He should be able to mix in some take downs on Yan like Merab did. Has more power than Yan. And better cardio. Yan is better in 5 round fights where the slow starts don’t hurt him as much.
Chris’ Pick: Song by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Song -200
Jailton Almeida vs Curtis Blaydes
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques. Submitted Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler. Beat Derrick Lewis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 12-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -175
Katlyn Cerminara vs Maycee Barber
- Katlyn Cerminara
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4 at 125 lbs. 10-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Jennifer Maia, Viviane Araujo, Cynthia Calvillo, Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision wins over Amanda Ribas and Irene Aldana.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Jessica Eye and Montana de la Rosa. Split decision wins over Andrea Lee and Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Barber really leveled up in her last fight with Ribas. Her power at 125 lbs looks like it could be a difference maker.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Barber -175
Rafael dos Anjos vs Mateus Gamrot
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 16-7 at 155 lbs. 21-13 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Submitted Bryan Barberena. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler. Split decision over Jalin Turner.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gamrot -275
Pedro Munhoz vs Kyler Phillips
- Pedro Munhoz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-8
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Chris Guttierez, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcelo Rojo. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Roani Barcelos, Yadong Song, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I need to give Munhoz his due. He’s fought Sean O’Malley, Chris Gutierez, and Marlon Vera back to back to back and his striking held up as being really close to even. Munhoz is also very durable so that means he should out point Phillips here.
Chris’ Pick: Munhoz by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Munhoz -200
Michel Pereira vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 185 lbs. 8-2 overall.
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 185 lbs. 7-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chidi Njokuani, Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s possible Pereira could have more power at middleweight, seeing as he knocked Petroski out in the 1st round, but we’ll see. I want to see more.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pereira -200
Ion Cutelaba vs Philipe Lins
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-8-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Philipe Lins
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux, Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Beat Maxim Grishin and Marcin Prachnio.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cutelaba -175
Robelis Despaigne vs Josh Parisian
- Robelis Despaigne
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Baudot, out a 6-1 striker, and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Despaigne by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Despaigne -350
Asu Almabaev vs CJ Vergara
- Asu Almabaev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva, Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Almabaev by 1st round submission.
Chris’ Pick: Almabaev -400
Joanne Wood vs Maryna Moroz
- Joanne Wood
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-5 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lauren Murphy.
- Key Wins: Beat Jessica Eye and Ariane Lipski. Split decision wins over Luana Carolina and Andrea Lee.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Maryna Moroz
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Mariya Agapova and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Moroz by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Moroz -175