Allen vs Curtis 2, Hernandez vs Jackson, Charriere vs Mariscal Fight Picks – April 6, 2024

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis 2

• Brendan Allen
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 11-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. 
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Chris Curtis
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley, Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Split decision over Marc Andre Barriault. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Allen’s grappling is getting ridiculous with how he handled Craig on the ground. Could be approaching a top of the scale 80 grade. Curtis still has a quality 6-2 UFC record, but his skills seem to have plateaued. I just think if Allen is able to beat Allen on the ground, he’ll do the same with Curtis.

Chris’ Pick: Allen by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Allen -350

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Alexander Hernandez vs Damon Jackson

• Alexander Hernandez
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 6-6
• Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Damon Jackson
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 4-5-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini and a 12-3 grappler. Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Hernandez -175

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Morgan Charriere vs Jose Mariscal

• Morgan Charriere
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 19-9-1
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
• Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Maolo Zecchini and a 17-4 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Jose Mariscal
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 14-6
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat Trevor Peek and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Youssef Zalal. Split decision over Pat Sabatini.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Mariscal’s striking could be a 60 still. Jenkins did out strike him 35 to 23. But based on seeing how Mariscal was able to clinch with Jenkins and ultimately get the better of him there, I have his wrestling as a 65 and projecting the striking to being a 65 too.

Chris’ Pick: Mariscal by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Mariscal -200

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Ignacio Bahamondes vs Christos Giagos

• Ignacio Bahamondes
• Age: 26
• UFC Record: 4-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
• Key Wins: Submitted Zhu Rong. Knocked out Roosevelt Roberts and a 6-1 striker. Beat Trey Ogden and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus: (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Christos Giagos
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 5-7
• Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn. Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

I’ve seen so many Giagos fights that it’s hard to believe he’s finally showing improvement, but that seems to be the case. I know Daniel Zellhuber has 65 striking and the strikes were close to equal when they fought. And I’m projecting his wrestling to being a 60. I’m confident Bahamondes’ striking is a 70 based on how he did with Ogden. So despite the loss to Klein, Bahamondes skills remain intact.

Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Bahamondes -400

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Trevor Peek vs Charlie Campbell

• Trevor Peek
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 9-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Erick Gonzalez, Khama Worthy, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Beat Mohammad Yayha.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Charlie Campbell
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 8-2
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a well rounded 3-1 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Peek’s fight with Yahya was closer than I thought but that’s probably because I was under rating Yahya. Peek has proven his 65 striking with Mariscal. Campbell has a lot of hype right now, but let’s remember he got knocked out by Chris Duncan in less than 2 minutes. I question his chin.

Chris’ Pick: Peek by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Peek -200

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Alex Morono vs Court McGee

• Alex Morono
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 12-6
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Tim Means, Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Court McGee
• Age: 39
• UFC Record: 10-11
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
• Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Morono -175

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Lukas Brzeski vs Valter Walker

• Lukasz Brzeski
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 8-4
• UFC Record: 0-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
• Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 20-5 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: average (50)

• Valter Walker
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 11-0
• Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over an 8-3 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Even though Brzeski got knocked out in 3 minutes with Waldo Cortes Acosta, it is possible he improved his striking. He landed 14 shots to 12. Small sample though. Walker’s last fight was close to a year ago. He looks like a potential title contender, would’ve liked to have seen better cardio. Decent chance he shows up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Walker by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Walker -250

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Germaine de Randamie vs Norma Dumont

• Germaine de Randamie
• Age: 39
• Pro Record: 10-4
• UFC Record: 7-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Juliana Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Raquel Pennington, and Aspen Ladd.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Norma Dumont
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.
• Key Wins: Beat Chelsea Chandler, Karol Rosa, Danyelle Wolf, Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

De Randamie is 39 years old and hasn’t fought in over 3 and a half years. And she’s also unique in that since 2015, she’s fought only once a year. Except for 2019, when she fought twice. But. She does have a history of showing rust isn’t a factor for her. Although, this is the longest lay off of her career.

Chris’ Pick: de Randamie by decision.

What I think the odds should be: de Randamie -135

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Victor Hugo vs Pedro Falcao

• Victor Hugo
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 24-4
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 16-1 fighter. Knocked out an 18-4 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 6-0-1 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Pedro Falcao
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 16-3
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat a 14-4 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: above average (60)

I know Hugo’s opponent on the Contender had wrestling that’s at least a 55. Which means I’m confident Hugo’s grappling is a 65. But the 60 striking grade is more of a projection. Falcao steps in on 3 days notice. Last time I watched him was on Contender almost 3 years ago. Very possible he’s improved since then. I think Falcao is a live underdog.

Chris’ Pick: Hugo by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Hugo -135

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Dan Argueta vs Jean Matsumoto

• Dan Argueta
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 9-1
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Jean Matsumoto
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 14-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Argueta by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Argueta -175

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Dylan Budka vs Cesar Almeida

• Dylan Budka
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 6-2
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 15-3 fighter.
• Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a 3-0 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Cesar Almeida
• Age: 35
• Pro Record: 4-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat a 9-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Almeida -250

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Melissa Mullins vs Nora Cornolle

• Melissa Mullins
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 6-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Irina Alekseeva and a 3-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Nora Cornolle
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 7-1
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat Joselyne Edwards.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Mullin’s wrestling and cardio were really impressive in her UFC debut. True 70 tool. And I’ll admit, grading her striking a 65 is more projection, could be a 60. But that shouldn’t matter against Cornolle who repeatedly got taken down by 60 wrestler Edwards.

Chris’ Pick: Mullins by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Mullins -300