Alex Perez vs Mateus Nicolau
- Alex Perez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Matheus Nicolau
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat David Dvorak, Tim Elliott, Louis Smolka, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The market clearly thinks Nicolau has 70 tools. He closed as a -380 favorite over Schnell. Knocked him out. As expected. But. Striking between the two was close to equal. Then Nicolau closes as a 2 to 1 favorite over Brandon Royval and gets knocked out in 2 minutes. And then looking back on Nicolau’s previous fights against Dvorak and Elliott, striking in those fights was close to equal as well. So the numbers just aren’t there for me to justify grading Nicolau’s striking a 70. And I’ve also seen no evidence that his wrestling is a 70 either. Before Perez’s last fight with Muhammad Mokaev, Perez hadn’t fought for longer than 2 minutes since 2020. So we’ve had very little data in a lot of years. He takes on Mokaev. Showed 70 wrestling. I had Mokaev with 65 striking going into the fight but it looks like Mokaev leveled his striking up to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -225
Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bogdan Guskov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-3 fighter and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite Pauga getting the better of Guskov in the clinch, I still think his wrestling is a 65 based on how he looked with Volkan Oezdemir. Spann’s skills seem to have plateaued as Anthony Smith out struck him 90 to 50
Chris’ Pick: Guskov by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Guskov -125
Karine Silva vs Ariane Lipski
- Karine Silva
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-4
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Maryna Moroz, Ketlen Souza, Poliana Botelho, a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Casey O’Neil, Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat JJ Aldrich and Mandy Bohm. Split decision over Melissa Gatto.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I give Lipski a slight edge in that I’m more confident in where her tools are at vs Silva. Plus none of Silva’s 4 UFC fights have lasted longer than 7 minutes. I don’t know what her cardio looks like in the 3rd round. And also think it’s possible Lipski’s grappling could be a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Lipski by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lipski -135
Jhonata Diniz vs Austen Lane
- Jhonata Diniz
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Austen Lane
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
I’d really like to see Lane in the cage for longer than a few minutes. Striking could be a 60, but the way the line closed with Justin Tafa as a -200 favorite, the market thinks Lane’s striking is a 55. I’m fairly confident Diniz’s striking is at least a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Diniz by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Diniz -250
Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani, Kai Kamaka III, and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales. Beat Darren Elkins and Christian Rodriguez
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- David Onama
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Nate Landwehr.
- Key Wins: Submitted Garrett Armfield. Knocked out Gabriel Santos, a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I think Onama is a similar to Joanderson Brito. Pearce was beating Brito but got caught in a choke. Same type of fight plays out but Onama doesn’t have the same level of grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pearce -175
Tim Means vs Uros Medic
- Tim Means
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 13-10 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Max Griffin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho. Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Uros Medic
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matthew Semelsberger, Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Means is the rare fighter who’s gotten better despite being in his late 30’s, now 40 years old. After out striking Fialho 56 to 35, I can’t deny his striking tool anymore, it’s a 65. Wrestling is also undeniably a 65 as well. With how Medic got taken down repeatedly and submitted by lightweight Myktybek Orolbai, it makes me think his wrestling could be a 55. And I think Means will follow the same plan Orolbai had.
Chris’ Pick: Means by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Means -175
Victor Henry vs Rani Yahya
- Victor Henry
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 23-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision wins over Tony Gravely and Kyler Phillips.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Rani Yahya
- Age: 39
- UFC/WEC Record: 16-8-1
- Key Draws: Fought Enrique Barzola to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Joe Soto.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ray Rodriguez and Luke Sanders. Beat Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Yahya has only fought once in the last 3 years. And that one fight only lasted 3 minutes against Montel Jackson. But. He did out strike Jackson 7 to 5. Enough for me to concede his striking is a 60. If Javid Basharat wasn’t able to take Henry down, neither is Yahya.
Chris’ Pick: Henry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Henry -300
Austin Hubbard vs Michal Figlak
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Michal Figlak
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 15-3 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The grappling between Figlak and Ziam was close. I think Ziam edged him out there. Possible Figlak’s wrestling could be a 60. After seeing Trey Ogden dominate Kurt Holobaugh on the ground, it’s easier for me to downgrade Hubbard’s tools.
Chris’ Pick: Figlak by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Figlak -400
Don’tale Mayes vs Caio Machado
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Arlovski, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Caio Machado
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-2-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Mick Parkin’s striking was reaffirmed as a 60 grade in his fight with Mohammed Usman. Which means based on Machado out striking Parkin 68 to 34, I’m very comfortable in grading Machado’s striking a 65. Market closed with Rodrigo Nascimento as a 2 to 1 favorite over Mayes, thinking Nascimento’s striking would be better. But instead the striking was very close to equal. And Mayes also stuffed all 3 of Nascimento’s take downs attempts. I think Mayes will mix some take downs in and I believe in his power more.
Chris’ Pick: Mayes by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mayes -175
Ketlen Souza vs Marnic Mann
- Ketlen Souza
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Marnic Mann
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Souza by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Souza -175
Chris Padilla vs James Llontop
- Chris Padilla
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Jaynes. Beat a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- James Llontop
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Malik Lewis and a well rounded 8-1-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Unless Malik Lewis isn’t that good, Llontop turned out to be much, much better than I thought. Market closed with Llontop as a -150 favorite. Out struck Lewis 40 to 23. Padilla takes the fight on less than a week’s notice. He was in camp already for a fight in May, definitely not coming off the couch. The only fight I could find video on was his 3rd to last fight, January of last year. Very possible he’s improved since then.
Chris’ Pick: Llontop by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Llontop -200
Ivana Siric Petrovic vs Na Liang
- Ivana Siric Petrovic
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Na Liang
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-6
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Na is interesting because she had moments in her last fight with JJ Aldrich where her grappling looked like a 70. She found a few moments in the fight where she had the advantage on the ground. But in the end, Aldrich seemed more caught off guard by Na wanting to grapple. Aldrich adjusted and then out classed in the grappling. But I will say it’s possible her grappling could be a 65 and even her striking could be as high as a 65 being that the striking between her and Aldrich was close to equal. Petrovic closed as a -190 favorite over Luana Carolina, as the market thought Petrovic’s wrestling was a 70. But instead Carolina showed up with improved 65 wrestling, which was further proved as Carolina’s wrestling was on par with Julija Stoliarenko.
Chris’ Pick: Petrovic by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrovic -125
Maheshate Hayisaer vs Gabriel Benitez
- Maheshate Hayisaer
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Garcia. Beat a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Gabriel Benitez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charlie Ontiveros. Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Market thought Maheshate had 60 tools heading into his fight with Slava Borshchev. But Borshchev out struck him 69 to 29. Very sure that Benitez’s wrestling is just a 55 after he got out classed on the ground by Jim Miller. Maheshate is the much younger guy and Benitez has lost 3 out of his last 4. But as of now, on paper, Benitez has the better tools.
Chris’ Pick: Benitez by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Benitez -200