Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 18-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rodrigo Nascimento
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker. Beat Don’Tale Mayes. Split decision wins over Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The only way Nascimento wins this is if he shows up improved. Lewis has lost 5 out of his last 7 fights, but this is a winnable fight for Lewis. Nascimento was knocked out by Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds. I don’t see this lasting long.
Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Lewis -250
Joaquin Buckley vs Nursulton Ruziboev
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Andre Fialho, Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Alex Morono and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nursulton Ruziboev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 36-8-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
- Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sedriques Dumas, Brunno Ferreira, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Ruziboev looked great knocking Dumas out in 3 minutes, showed 65 wrestling in stuffing Dumas’ take downs. But there’s no evidence of 70 striking. Yet. I really thought Luque’s grappling was still a 70 and was shocked when Buckley stuffed all 3 take down attempts. Maybe Luque’s grappling has regressed to a 65. But Buckley’s wrestling is definitely at least a 65 now. Striking between Buckley and Luque was identical, 21 to 21. But Buckley showed way, way more power.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Buckley -200
Carlos Ulberg vs Alonzo Menifield
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, Nicolae Negumereanu, Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted Da Woon Jung.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Market thought Jacoby has 70 striking and Menifield has 65 striking and turns out they’re right. Striking being close to equal between Ulberg and Jung was a curveball, but I’m not coming off grading Ulbergs striking as a 70. Last time Ulberg fought for longer than 4 minutes, he out struck Kennedy Nzechukwu 132 to 72.
Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Ulberg -225
Mateusz Rebecki vs Diego Ferreira
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 19-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Loik Radzhabov, a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted Roosevelt Roberts, a 12-2 striker. Beat Nick Fiore and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 39
- UFC record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Beneil Dariush.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Knocked out Michael Johnson. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
It’s possible I could be over rating Rebecki’s striking here. But he closed as a near pick with Radzhabov and then proceeded to out strike him 54 to 19 Hard to ignore those numbers. Ferreira is 39 years old and has only 1 fight in the past 2 and a half years. Definitely risk of regression here.
Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Rebecki -275
Alex Caceres vs Sean Woodson
- Alex Caceres
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-12
- Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
- Key Wins: Submitted Seung Woo Choi. Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Sean Woodson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Julian Erosa.
- Key Draws: Fought Luis Saldana to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin and a 6-1 grappler. Beat Charles Jourdain, Dennis Buzukja, and Kyle Bochniak. Split decision over Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Market closed with Giga Chikadze as a -245 favorite over Caceres, thinking Chikadze has 70 striking. But the fight plays out and striking ends up being close to equal. So what happened? After 26 UFC fights and at 35 years of age, has Caceres’ striking finally reached a 70? Doubt it. I think Chikadze just came in with cage rust after a long layoff. The Jourdain fight is where Woodson leveled up. Jourdain came in as a -205 favorite. But Woodson landed more 70 to 52. Jourdain also failed to get the better of Woodson on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Woodson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Woodson -300
Robelis Despaigne vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Robelis Despaigne
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 5-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Parisian.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Arlovski is inconsistent. Sometimes has 65 striking, sometimes 60. Market thought Acosta Cortes’ striking was a 70 as he closed as a ridiculous -700 favorite. The good Arlovski showed up and striking was close to equal. Watching Despaigne, I haven’t seen power like that since Francis Ngannou. It’s possible Despaignes striking is only a 65, but he should still win here as his power could be as high as a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Despaigne by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Despaigne -250
Chase Hooper vs Slava Borshchev
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jordan Leavitt. Knocked out Felipe Colares and Daniel Teymur. Beat Nick Fiore and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Slava Borshchev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Draws: Fought Nazim Sadykhov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate. Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m amazed at Borshchev’s development. Came into the UFC with 55 wrestling. Thought he would get dominated by Nazim Sadykhov on the ground. But Borshchev held his own, was able to get back up time and again. And his striking is undoubtedly a 70, out struck Sadykhov 141 to 66.
Chris’ Pick: Borshchev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Borshchev -250
Terrance McKinney vs Esteban Ribovics
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendon Marotte, Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Esteban Ribovics
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Beat Kamuela Kirk.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’m confident that Ribovics grappling is a 60. And also that his striking has leveled up to a 65 after he out struck Kirk 92 to 51.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be: McKinney -300
Tabatha Ricci vs Tecia Pennington
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Loopy Godinez.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Penne. Beat Gillian Robertson, Polyana Viana, and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tecia Pennington
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mackenzie Dern.
- Key Wins: Beat Angela Hill, Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Pennington returns for her first fight in over 2 years. Last time out, she lost a close split decision to Dern. But showed her wrestling is a borderline 70. Ricci is a somewhat similar style matchup, wrestler instead of a grappler, but the big difference is she has the cardio to wrestle all fight if she needs to. Pennington seems close to retirement, I don’t see her showing up improved. Decent chance Ricci shows up with improved tools.
Chris’ Pick: Ricci by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ricci -175
Trey Waters vs Billy Goff
- Trey Waters
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Josh Quinlan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Billy Goff
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, a 9-1 striker, 3-0 grappler and a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Quinlan’s recent fight with Danny Barlow was helpful in reaffirming that Quinlan’s striking is a 55. And Waters out struck Quinlan 102 to 46, so I’m confident grading Waters’ striking a 65, and could be as high as a 70. And Goff’s striking is really close to a 70 too. Total coin flip fight.
Chris’ Pick: Waters by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Waters -125
Jake Hadley vs Charles Johnson
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Candelario, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out Malcolm Gordon. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Hard to deny Johnson a 65 striking grade after he out struck Maksum 66 to 36. Cody Durden’s striking is probably closer to a 65 vs a 70. That said, Durden did land more shots than Hadley 30 to 23. Hadley’s striking might be close to a 65, but I’m keeping him as a 60 for now.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johnson -175
JJ Aldrich vs Veronica Hardy
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na LIang. Beat Montana de la Rosa, Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Veronica Hardy
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Juliana Miller. Split decision over Jamey Lyn Horth.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Market closed with Horth as a -200 favorite over Hardy, probably because the market thought Horth’s striking was a 65. But the striking turned out to be close to equal. And I think that happened because Horth’s striking is a 60. As I don’t believe Hardy has 65 striking after she only out struck Julianna Miller 32 to 22. Despite how Aldrich looked against Erin Blanchfield, I have no choice now but to downgrade her tools. Lipski stuffed Aldrich’s take downs, out struck Aldrich. Thought Lipski had leveled up, but that wasn’t the case. Then Aldrich’s fight with de la Rosa was the clincher in that the striking was close to equal. Really close fight, but I give Aldrich an edge that maybe that version of her against Blanchfield comes back.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Aldrich -125