Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 13-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, Bobby Green, and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Alexander Volkanovski, Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 22-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Benoit St Denis, Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Michael Chandler and Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
When in doubt, zoom out. And after Poirier’s last fight with St Denis, not only did he show he’s not regressing yet, his 75 striking showed up again too. It’s on the low end of a 75, but Poirier’s durability and cardio is what makes the tool more than a 70. He also reaffirmed my 70 grappling grade as well. I realize the market thinks Makhachev has 75 striking. And he might. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. For me, his striking is on the bubble between a 70-75 grade and I think it’s closer to a 70. And his second fight with Volkanovski reaffirmed for me that Makhachev’s wrestling is only a 75. I know Makhachev is the big favorite, but for me, the fight is a coin flip because I see it as a race between Poirier getting the KO vs Makhachev getting the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Poirier by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Poirier -125
Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 15-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abus Magomedov, Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Beat Luke Rockhold. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Strickland’s striking is very close to an 80 grade, but I had to down grade it back to a 75. It’s on the bubble. He out struck Dricus Du Plessis 173 to 134. Numbers wise, Strickland and Robert Whittaker are very, very similar and I think this fight plays out just like Whittaker vs Costa did, even more so being that this is a 5 round fight. Costa will have more power but Strickland has never been knocked out in the UFC at middleweight except by Alex Pereira. And I’ll also say Strickland’s striking and cardio are better than Whittaker’s.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Strickland -250
Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2 at 170 lbs. 12-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2 at 185 lbs. 7-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chidi Njokuani, Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite the narrative that Holland got out classed by Michael Page, the fight was close in the first two rounds where Page only out struck him 26 to 17. Then Page pulled away in the 3rd round. I’m still very confident Holland has 70 striking with how he out landed Della Maddalena 119 to 94.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -250
Alex Morono vs Niko Price
- Alex Morono
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Court McGee, Tim Means, Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Niko Price
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Price’s 65 striking was reaffirmed in his last fight with Phil Rowe, which Price out struck him 59 to 34 in the first 2 rounds, but Price was out of gas in the 3rd and Rowe knocked him out because of it. Morono has proven to be durable, but Price should win because he has a lot more power.
Chris’ Pick: Price by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Price -175
Randy Brown vs Elizeu Zalesiki dos Santos
- Randy Brown
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Muslim Salikhov and Bryan Barbarena. Beat Wellington Turman, Francisco Trinaldo, and Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
- Key Draws: Fought Rinat Fakheretdinov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Benoit St. Denis and Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision wins over Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Lyman Good.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Market closed with Fakheretdinov as a -345 favorite over Zaleski dos Santos. So based on what happened in the fight, either Fakheretdinov’s wrestling is over rated or Zaleski dos Santos’ wrestling has improved to a 65, despite being 37 years old. I’m tempted to say no way Zaleski dos Santos got better. But then again, he is the same guy who dominated Benoit St Denis in his UFC debut, albeit on short notice and up a weight class. But still, very likely Zaleski dos Santos’ wrestling has leveled up to a 65. Market priced Brown’s striking as a 70, but I don’t see any evidence of it. The numbers don’t show it. Brown knocking out Salikhov looks nice, but striking was close to equal up until the KO. It’s also possible Brown has 65 grappling, but I’ve yet to see it past a 60 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Zaleski dos Santos -135
Roman Kopylov vs Cesar Almeida
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cesar Almeida
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 5-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dylan Budka. Beat a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Going into the Budka fight, the market probably thought Almeida had only 55 wrestling. Not the case. Almeida might walk in here with 70 striking, but we haven’t seen it yet.
Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Kopylov -200
Jailton Almeida vs Alexandr Romanov
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques. Submitted Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler. Beat Derrick Lewis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Beat Balogi Ivanov. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
After losing two straight, it was easy to write Romanov off as a one dimensional wrestler who doesn’t have the stand up to beat the top guys. But then he returns to fight Ivanov and wow, I was impressed. Romanov only needed 2 take downs, kept top control. And the biggest surprise was the striking numbers, Romanov out landed him 74 to 44. Ivanov’s striking probably regressed to a 65, but still impressive. Almeida has been in 8 UFC fights and we haven’t seen his striking at all. Every single fight, he imposes his grappling. Striking could be a 70, but I’m projecting it’s closer to a 65. Also possible Almeida doesn’t have a great chin.
Chris’ Pick: Romanov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Romanov -250
Grant Dawson vs Joe Solecki
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-1-1
- Key draws: Fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Damir Ismagulov and Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jared Gordon.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carl Deaton, Austin Hubbard, and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller. Majority decision over Alex da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dawson -450
Phil Rowe vs Jake Matthews
- Phil Rowe
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Neil Magny.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price, Jason Witt, Orion Cosce, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darrius Flowers. Beat Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Matthews -225
Bassil Hafez vs Mickey Gall
- Bassil Hafez
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-4-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-5 grappler. Submitted an 8-0 striker. Split decision over Anthony Ivy.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Mickey Gall
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez. Lost to Mike Perry
- Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Gall returns for his first fight in over 2 years. Lost 3 of his last 4 fights. But the Mike Malott KO loss doesn’t look as bad with how good Malott has looked. And as long as the Malott fight lasted, Gall showed his striking and grappling is very close to 65’s. Hafez’s short notice debut was one of the more memorable ones as he was inches away from upsetting Della Maddalena, who has since beat Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns to show he’s still the rising title contender we thought he was.
Chris’ Pick: Hafez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hafez -300
Ailin Perez vs Joselyne Edwards
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat Lucie Pudilova and Ashlee Evans Smith
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Easy bit of MMA math here. Just last year, Edwards barely won a split decision over Pudilova. Which was a horrible call by the judges. Pudilova clearly won, had over 7 minutes of control time over Edwards on the ground. And then Perez dominates Pudilova on the ground (for the first 2 rounds, but then she gassed herself out by the 3rd).
Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Perez -300
Andre Lima vs Mitch Raposo
- Andre Lima
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a 14-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Mitch Raposo
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I might be over rating Lima’s wrestling. It could be a 55. Raposo steps in on less than 2 weeks notice, but I think there’s a good chance he was in camp preparing to be on the Contender again. His fight with Jake Hadley back in 2021 was also on short notice, Raposo looked great in the 1st round, even took Hadley down a couple times, but he ran out of gas in the 3rd round.
Chris’ Pick: Raposo by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Raposo -135