Lemos vs Jandiroba, Garcia vs Choi, Durden vs Silva Fight Picks – July 20, 2024

Amanda Lemos vs Virna Jandiroba

  • Amanda Lemos
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 7-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Michelle Waterson and Miranda Granger. Beat MacKenzie Dern and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Virna Jandiroba
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 6-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Beat Loopy Godinez, Marina Rodriguez, and Angela Hill. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Whether Dern’s grappling is a 70 or a 75 doesn’t really matter. Dern did out grapple Lemos so I’m confident Lemos grappling is a 65. Market thinks Godinez has 70 striking but the numbers aren’t there to support that grade. Which means Jandiroba’s striking is still a 65 for me.I do think Jandiroba is a better grappler than Dern, so being that Dern was able to get Lemos down multiple times, I don’t think Jandiroba has a problem here.

Chris’ Pick: Jandiroba by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jandiroba -200


Steve Garcia vs Seung Woo Choi

  • Steve Garcia
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 1-0 at 155 lbs. 5-2 overall.
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Melquizael Costa, Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, Chase Hooper, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Seung Woo Choi
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 4-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Culibao.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Jarno Errens, Youssef Zalal, and an 8-1 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Costa came is as a monster -540 favorite over Garcia, which I agreed with. Costa was able to pin Costa to the cage for most of the 1st round, which, I thought Costa had the ability to do. But then Garcia blasted Costa in the 2nd round and knocked him out with ground and pound. Garcia out struck Costa 4 to 2 so almost no sample size there, but still, that’s 3 KO’s in a row, and it’s enough for me to upgrade Garcia’s striking to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Garcia by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Garcia -175


Kaynan Kruschewsky vs Kurt Holobaugh

  • Kaynan Kruschewsky
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 15-3
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker. Lost to a well rounded 18-4-3 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Knocked out a 5-1 striker, an 8-3 wrestler, and an 8-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Kurt Holobaugh
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 1-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Kruschewsky has the ability to dominate Holobaugh on the ground just like Trey Ogden did.

Chris’ Pick: Kruschewsky by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kruschewsky -250


Cody Durden vs Bruno Silva

  • Cody Durden
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 5-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Bruno Silva
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Rodriguez, JP Buys, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted Tyson Nam.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Silva’s last fight was 16 months and he’s only fought once in the last 3 years. The market thought he had 65 striking going into the Nam fight, but I disagree. Silva did out land Nam 21 to 12, but it’s not enough for me to move his striking grade off a 60. After Durden out struck Tagir Ulanbekov 24 to 15, I know for sure his striking is a 70. Two paths to win for Durden.

Chris’ Pick: Durden by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be: Durden -400


Bill Algeo vs Doo Ho Choi

  • Bill Algeo
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 5-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted TJ Brown. Knocked out Herbert Burns and a 27-8 grappler. Beat Alexander Hernandez, Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Doo Ho Choi
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 3-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Kyle Nelson to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Thiago Tavares and Sam Siscilia.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Choi has only fought once in the last 4 and a half years. And now his draw to Nelson doesn’t look as bad as Nelson has shown how much better he’s gotten. Despite getting knocked out by Nelson, I know for sure that Algeo has 70 striking due to him out striking Hernandez 108 to 75.

Chris’ Pick: Algeo by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Algeo -175


Hyder Amil vs Jeong Yeong Lee

  • Hyder Amil
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 9-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Fernie Garcia. Beat a 14-4 striker. Split decision win over a 9-7 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Jeong Yeong Lee
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 grappler and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Blake Bilder. Split decision over Zha Yi.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Lee’s striking is on the lower end of a 65 grade. He out struck Bilder 21 to 8, but I’d still prefer to see more of Lee to feel more confident.

Chris’ Pick: Lee by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lee -200


Cody Gibson vs Brian Kelleher

  • Cody Gibson
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 1-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Francisco Rivera. Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat John Dodson and a 19-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Brian Kelleher
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 8-8
  • Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Kevin Croom, Domingo Pilarte and Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Gibson’s striking tool was flashing a 65 grade in his Miles Johns fight. It’s close, but I still have it as a 60 for now.

Chris’ Pick: Gibson by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gibson -200


Dione Barbosa vs Miranda Maverick

  • Dione Barbosa
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Ernesta Kareckaite and Karine Silva.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Miranda Maverick
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 6-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira, Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Andrea Lee, Gillian Robertson, and a 6-1 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Barbosa’s win over Kareckaite was much closer than the market thought it would be because Kareckaite is better than they thought. In other words, Barbosa is still as good as we all thought. But, the one flaw I did see with Barbosa is her cardio isn’t great and that doesn’t matchup well with Maverick, especially with Barbosa taking this fight on less than 3 weeks notice.

Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Maverick -300


Loik Radzhabov vs Trey Ogden

  • Loik Radzhabov
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 18-5-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Knocked out Abdul Kareem Al Selwady, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Esteban Ribovics and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Trey Ogden
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 17-6
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jordan Leavitt.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Kurt Holobaugh, Daniel Zellhuber, and a 4-0 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Radzhabov’s wrestling is very close to a 65 which means I think Ogden gets 1 or 2 take downs but not much ground control. Radzhabov’s striking is also close to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Radzhabov by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Radzhabov -175


Luana Carolina vs Lucie Pudilova

  • Luana Carolina
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 5-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Joanne Wood.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Julija Stoliarenko. Beat Ivana Petrovic, an 8-2 striker, and a 7-0 wrestler. Split decision over Poliana Botelho.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Lucie Pudilova
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 3-7
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joselyne Edwards and Irene Aldana.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Wu Yanan. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Carolina by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Carolina -275


Mohammed Usman vs Thomas Petersen

  • Mohammed Usman
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Zac Pauga and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier, Junior Tafa, and a 5-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)
  • Thomas Petersen
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

The market thought Usman’s wrestling was a 65 going into his fight with Mick Parkin, but unfortunately, the whole fight played out on the feet, so I’m still unsure how good his wrestling is. The striking being close to equal between Petersen and Jamal Pogues I think had more to do with Pogues striking leveling up.

Chris’ Pick: Petersen by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petersen -125

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