
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad 2
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 13-2
- Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 14-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Brady. Beat Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
It does look like Muhammad has gotten better since his first fight with Edwards in 2021. Wrestling is on the low end of a 75 grade. And I know Muhammad’s striking is only a 70 as the striking with Burns was close to equal the first 2 rounds, before Burns got hurt. For most of Edwards’ fight with Covington, Covington got nowhere close to taking Edwards down. Covington had some success in the 5th round but that was about it. Covington says he broke his foot the 1st round of the fight, maybe he did, maybe he didn’t. But it appears Edwards’ wrestling has leveled up to a low end 75.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Edwards -250
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Sergei Pavlovich, Marcin Tybura, Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jailton Almeida, Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Sample size, super, super small. But. Worth noting that Aspinall out landed Pavlovich 7 to 1. His speed at heavyweight is different.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aspinall -300
Paddy Pimblett vs King Green
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Luigi Vendramini and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Tony Ferguson and Julian Erosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- King Green
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-10-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Jim Miller, Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Green proved his striking is a very legit 70 grade after he out struck Miller 167 to 55.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Green -250
Christian Leeroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Christian Leroy Duncan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin, a 5-0 grappler, and an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Brad Tavares, Dennis Tiuliulin, Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
After Claudio Ribeiro’s fight with Roman Kopylov, I thought Ribeiro’s striking was a 65. Market thought it was a 60. And I’m confident in saying it’s absolutely no worse than a 60 grade. That said, Duncan out struck Ribeiro 31 to 4. Part of that was Ribeiro not showing up, the other part, Duncan leveling up. Rodrigues’ wrestling is really close to a 70, but not quite there yet. I have the tool on the higher end of a 65 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Duncan by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Duncan -200
Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze
- Arnold Allen
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Nik Lentz, and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. Beat Alex Caceres, Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m very sure that Calvin Kattar has 70 striking and 70 wrestling. Market thought Chikadze had 70 striking, but instead Kattar out struck him 135 to 127. So Chikadze’s striking is right on the bubble. Probably closer to a 70. Then Chikadze returns from a year and a half layoff. And I’m very confident Caceres has 65 striking. Chikadze barely lands more 65 to 62. So maybe Chikadze was rusty, but I have to down grade his striking to a 65 grade for now. I also think his wrestling is closer to a 65 as well, but I could be wrong. On the one hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chikadze bounce back with 70 grade striking, but on the other hand, Allen is more on the upswing and there’s a decent chance he shows up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Allen -250
Nathaniel Wood vs Daniel Pineda
- Nathaniel Wood
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain, and Charles Rosa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 2-2 in 2nd UFC stint. 5-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tucker Lutz. Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Wood by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Wood -450
Molly McCann vs Bruna Brasil
- Molly McCann
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Goldy and Luana Carolina. Submitted Diana Belbita. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bruna Brasil
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-4-1
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marnic Mann. Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat Shauna Bannon and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Either Loma Lookboonme leveled up her striking to a 65 grade or Brasil’s striking is worse than I thought. I think the former is more plausible. McCann made her debut at 115 lbs last time out and not a big sample size, but probably likely her wrestling is now a 65.
Chris’ Pick: McCann by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McCann -300
Caolan Loughran vs Jake Hadley
- Caolan Loughran
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Beat Angel Pacheco.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Candelario, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out Malcolm Gordon. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Hadley’s had a hard time making 125 lbs so I think there’s a decent chance his tools translate well to 135 lbs. His last fight with Johnson showed his striking is on the low end of a 65 grade. Hadley also has solid cardio so I don’t think him taking this fight on less than 2 weeks will be an issue.
Chris’ Pick: Hadley by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hadley -200
Modestas Bukauskas vs Marcin Prachnio
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Beat Zac Pauga and Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat Devin Clark, William Knight, and Khalil Rountree.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Clark closed as a -205 favorite, but Prachnio showed up with way, way improved wrestling. Clark only tried two attempts and both were stuffed pretty easily. Prachnio’s wrestling goes from a 55 all the way to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Prachnio by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Prachnio -175
Oban Elliott vs Preston Parsons
- Oban Elliott
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Valentine Woodburn and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 17-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and Evan Elder.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I had Matthew Semelsberger pegged with 65 tools going into his fight with Parsons. Market disagreed and thought it was a pick em. Market was right. Now the question is, has Parsons elevated his tools to 65 grades? Or is Semelsberger not as good as I thought and has 60 tools? I tend to think the latter is more plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Elliott -175
Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape
- Muhammad Mokaev
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Elliott, Jafel Filho, Malcolm Gordon, and Cody Durden. Beat Alex Perez, Charles Johnson, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Manel Kape
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ode Osbourne, and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker. Beat Felipe dos Santos and David Dvorak.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Mokaev out struck Perez 31 to 19, so I’ve now seen enough to upgrade his striking to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mokaev -300
Sam Patterson vs Kiefer Crosbie
- Sam Patterson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Yohan Lainesse, an 8-1 grappler and a 14-1 grappler. Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Beat an 18-6 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Kiefer Crosbie
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 16-11 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira. Beat a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Patterson looked like a completely different guy in his last fight with Lainesse. Patterson got the back pretty easy. Easy 65 grade for his grappling now. I’m also projecting his striking at a 60, but I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Crosbie by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Crosbie -175
Mick Parkin vs Lukasz Brzeski
- Mick Parkin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eduardo Neves. Beat Mohammed Usman, Caio Machado, and Jamal Pogues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lukasz Brzeski
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
- Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Valter Walker and a 20-5 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Walker closed as a -230 favorite to beat Brzeski, which I agreed with. But when the fight played out, we saw that Brzeski showed up improved, showed 60 wrestling. And out struck Walker 55 to 23. Ever since Caio Machado out struck Parkin 68 to 34, I’ve been convinced Parkin’s striking is only a 60. And that opinion was reaffirmed after seeing the striking between Parkin and Usman be close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Brzeski by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brzeski -175
Shauna Bannon vs Alice Ardelean
- Shauna Bannon
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a 3-0-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Alice Ardelean
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Really surprising that Bannon’s striking is ahead of her wrestling and that she was able to out strike Bruna Brasil in a fight I thought Bannon won. Ardelean is unique in that she started her pro MMA career with a 4-5 record. Took 4 years off from the sport. Came back in 2021 and has won 4 straight. She looks like she has 60 tools but it’s hard to tell because she hasn’t fought quality competition.
Chris’ Pick: Bannon by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bannon -200