Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-4 at 170 lbs. 13-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Sean Brady
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, Jake Matthews, and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I wasn’t too surprised Brady was able to steamroll Gastelum on the ground. Probably 75 wrestling for Brady. But I still have that Muhammad fight in my head and ask myself, has Brady improved his cardio? What if the take downs don’t come as easy against Burns later in the fight. And is Brady’s striking a 70? Gastelum did out strike him 13 to 7.
Chris’ Pick: Burns by 4th round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Burns -175
Jessica Andrade vs Natalia Silva
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-3 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mackenzie Dern, Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Marina Rodriguez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo, Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Viviane Araujo has 70 wrestling and Silva had problems with her in the clinch along the fence. Silva wasn’t able to make any adjustments. And that could be a problem against Andrade. I was also underwhelmed by Silva only out striking Araujo 38 to 25. Silva’s striking could be as low as a 65. With Andrea Lee really fading this past year or so, Silva’s win over Lee is looking less and less as big.
Chris’ Pick: Andrade by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Andrade -175
Steve Garcia vs Kyle Nelson
- Steve Garcia
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 155 lbs. 6-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Seung Woo Choi, Melquizael Costa, Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, Chase Hooper, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bill Algeo, Khama Worthy, and Marco Polo Reyes. Beat Fernando Padilla and Blake Bilder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (65)
I know for sure Bill Algeo has 70 striking. Thus, I’m going to upgrade Nelson’s striking to a 70 as their striking was close to equal. Garcia has been on quite the run himself, but the numbers don’t show he’s improved his skills since his last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Nelson by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nelson -225
Matt Schnell vs Cody Durden
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-7 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Su Mudaerji, Louis Smolka, and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Cody Durden
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Once and for all, Schnell’s fight with Steve Erceg shows his striking is only a 65. I had Durden’s striking as a 70 and Bruno Silva’s as a 60. Market thought both had 65 striking and the market might be right as striking was close to equal. We didn’t see Silva fight in over a year, it’s possible his striking could’ve elevated to a 70, but more likely Durden has 65 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Durden -175
Trevor Peek vs Yanal Ashmouz
- Trevor Peek
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Erick Gonzalez, Khama Worthy, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Beat Mohammad Yayha.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Yanal Ashmouz
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sam Patterson and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Hard to know what to make of Ashmouz’s fight with Chris Duncan. He injured his left hand early in the fight, didn’t throw it. Got out struck 82 to 34. Duncan closed as a -150 favorite. Market probably thought Duncan has 60 wrestling. It’s possible that Duncan leveled up his striking to a 65, possible Ashmouz’s striking could be a 55, but most likely, Ashmouz’s striking was compromised when he lost use of a limb. Market thought Charlie Campbell has 65 wrestling. I thought it’s closer to a 60 and the wrestling between him and Peek was close to equal. So it’s possible Peek has 65 wrestling, but more likely a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Peek by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Peek -250
Zhu Rong vs Chris Padilla
- Zhu Rong
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted Shin Haraguchi and a 19-4 grappler. Beat Sang Wook Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Chris Padilla
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Jaynes. Beat a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Submitted James Llontop and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Striking numbers between Padilla and Llontop was close to what I was expecting, Llontop landing more shots 19 to 9. But part of me wonders if Llontop believed the odds too much, him being a -485 favorite and not respecting Padilla’s grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Zhu by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zhu -175
Isaac Dulgarian vs Brendon Marotte
- Isaac Dulgarian
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Christian Rodriguez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Francis Marshall and a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Brendan Marotte
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Marotte was knocked out in 20 seconds in his UFC debut. But important to note, he was fighting up a weight class and returns to his natural weight at 145 lbs. Main reason Dulgarian lost his last fight is because he gassed out. Skills remain intact.
Chris’ Pick: Dulgarian by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dulgarian -500
Felipe dos Santos vs Andre Lima
- Felipe dos Santos
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 striker. Split decision over Victor Altamirano.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andre Lima
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a 14-1 grappler. Split decision over Mitch Raposo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: dos Santos by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: dos Santos -125
Gabriel Santos vs Zha Yi
- Gabriel Santos
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lerone Murphy.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Elves Brener.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Zha Yi
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jeong Yeong Lee.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted Kaiwen Li and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Beat Sang Won Kim. Split decision wins over a 13-5 striker and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Santos might be one of the best 0-2 fighters on the UFC roster. His fight with David Onama was really close until he got knocked out. Possible that Zha’s striking could only be a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -300
Jaqueline Amorim vs Vanessa Demopoulos
- Jaqueline Amorim
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory McKenna. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Kanako Murata and Maria Oliveira. Split decision over Emily Ducote.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Amorim by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Amorim -600
Andre Petroski vs Dylan Budka
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Josh Fremd and Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Dylan Budka
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 15-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Market thought Petroski’s wrestling was just a 65, but nope. His fight with Fremd was priced as a pick em, but Petroski accumulated more than 12 minutes of control time on the ground. And he did this in Denver altitude.. Wrestling tool is a true 70.
Chris’ Pick: Petroski by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petroski -400
Nathan Fletcher vs Zygimantis Ramaska
- Nathan Fletcher
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-1 fighter, a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Beat a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Zygimantis Ramaska
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 14-4 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Ramaska has good length for the weight class. Knows how to use his reach. I have his striking graded as a 60, but it’s on the low end, could be a 55. I thought Fletcher was one of the best prospects on TUF this season. It’s just Ofli is a little better, but Fletcher still has legit skills.
Chris’ Pick: Fletcher by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fletcher -225