Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling, Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Marlon Vera and Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus plus (80)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
The numbers are the numbers. And what the numbers showed in O’Malley’s fight with Sterling is that Sterling out struck him 16 to 10 up until the KO. Fast forward to the Vera rematch and O’Malley out strikes Vera 227 to 85. Wow. That’s indeed a leveling up. I’ve been very sure Vera has had 70 striking. Gives me no choice but to bump O’Malley’s striking up to a top of the scale 80 grade. Albeit it on the lower end. Showed in the Vera rematch his cardio was fine over 5 rounds. His lateral movement and angles that he’s able to move in is very unique. It’s what gave Sterling so much trouble in getting close to grapple. And the one time in the fight Sterling got a good grip, after an O’Malley slip, O’Malley was still able to break free and angle away. He doesn’t wrestle much, but I’m confident O’Malley’s wrestling is a 75. I think people will be surprised with how much Dvalishvili struggles to take him down.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: O’Malley -250
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0-1 at 125 lbs. 8-3-1 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Draws: Split decision draw to Valentina Shevchenko.
- Key Wins: Submitted Valentina Shevchenko and Joanne Wood. Beat Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-1-1 at 125 lbs. 12-3-1 overall.
- Key Draw: Split decision draw to Alexa Grasso.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia. Split decision over Taila Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
The numbers bear out that Shevchenko’s regression has indeed begun. She doesn’t have 75 tools anymore. And the narrative that’s some are putting out that Shevchenko clearly won the fight isn’t true. It was a close back and forth fight. And it was closer than the first fight. Now, Shevchenko is coming off a major injury. She’s a year older. I think this is another close fight, but I give Grasso an edge in that it’s possible she shows up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Grasso by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Grasso -135
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes
- Brian Ortega
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Yair Rodriguez, Renato Moicano, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar. Beat The Korean Zombie.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini. Submitted Gavin Tucker, Marcos Beltran, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I wasn’t surprised that Ortega upset Rodriguez. The thing I was surprised about was that once take down, Rodriguez wasn’t able to get back up. Maybe because he gassed himself out going for the KO in the 1st round and also because they were fighting at such high altitude in Mexico City.
Chris’ Pick: Ortega by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ortega -250
Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics
- Daniel Zellhuber
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted Cristos Giagos. Beat Francisco Prado, Lando Vannata, Lucas Almeida, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Esteban Ribovics
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Beat Kamuela Kirk.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Ribovic’s fight with McKinney ended so fast, there’s not much to take away out of that. Looking back at Ribovic’s win over Kirk, we now know for sure Kirk had 60 tools. Ribovics was taken down and controlled in the 1st round. Maybe Ribovics was content to work his submission game from his back, probably what happened as Kirk wasn’t able to get ground control the rest of the fight. I know Ribovics out struck Kirk 92 to 51. Puts Ribovic’s striking close to a 70 grade and I know the market thinks it’s a 70. But I don’t think Ribovics is one dimensional and there shouldn’t be that big a gap between how good his striking is vs his grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Ribovics by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ribovics -125
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne
- Luis Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Denys Bondar and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara. Split decision over Charles Johnson.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Everybody thought Filho had 65 grappling going into his fight with Osbourne. Thought fight could be close. But instead, Filho dominated. Took Osbourne down once, submitted him a couple minutes. Very possible Osbourne’s wrestling could be as low as a 55. Bondar has had 3 fights in the UFC now. Pretty sure his tools are 60’s at best. Grappling between Rodriguez and Bondar went back and forth with Rodriguez edging him out there getting the submission. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Rodriguez has 65 grappling as a result, but it’s probably on the lower end of a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -175
Irene Aldana vs Norma Dumont
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Macy Chiasson, Yana Kunitskaya, and Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Beat Karol Rosa. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.
- Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie, Chelsea Chandler, Karol Rosa, Danyelle Wolf, Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Not sure how Aldana won her last fight. Rosa out struck her 204 to 145. Completely possible Aldana’s skills could be starting to regress at 36 years of age and 13 UFC fights.
Chris’ Pick: Aldana by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aldana -175
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Manuel Torres
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Submitted Zhu Rong. Knocked out Cristos Giagos, Roosevelt Roberts, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Trey Ogden and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus: (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Duncan, a well rounded 14-5 fighter, and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Nik Motta, Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Torres has four 1st round finishes in the UFC in a row. Very impressive. Duncan is a quality fighter and Torres manhandled him to the ground, took the back, got the choke in less than 2 minutes. Bahamondes out struck Giagos 33 to 16, showing off legit, true 70 striking. I mean, his striking is borderline a 75. Torres might be dangerous early, but I see Bahamondes keeping him at range, being patient.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bahamondes -250
Yazmin Jauregui vs Ketlen Souza
- Yazmin Jauregui
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Sam Hughes and Iasmin Lucindo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ketlen Souza
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Marnic Mann.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Souza’s striking is on the low end of a 60 grade. Close to a 55. Wrestling is definitely a 60 though. Jauregui closed as a monster -600 favorite against Sam Hughes, which I thought was bonkers. And sure enough, the fight was razor close, stayed on the feet the whole time, with Jauregui out striking Hughes 84 to 80. Market was both over rating Jauregui and under rating Hughes at the same time.
Chris’ Pick: Jauregui by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jauregui -300
Edgar Chairez vs Joshua Van
- Edgar Chairez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Daniel Lacerda and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joshua Van
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Outside possibility Chairez has 55 grappling with the way Lacerda was able to take him down and control him for a bit. On the one hand, with where the numbers are at, I’d easily pick Van here. He should have the better striking. On the other hand, Van has this bad habit of getting off to slow starts, was out struck by Charles Johnson 41 to 16 in the 1st round. And. Van is coming off the first KO loss of his career. Just 2 months ago. Not a lot of recovery time. And. He’s taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. Not sure I can trust Van’s chin to help him make it out of the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Chairez by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chairez -125
Raul Rosas Jr vs Aoriqileng
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 19
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell. Submitted Ricky Turcios and Jay Perrin. Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Aoriqileng
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Johnny Munoz Jr, Jay Perrin, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Possible that Aoriqileng’s striking could be as low as a 55 with how Daniel Marcos out struck him 69 to 43.
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rosas Jr -400