Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryce Mitchell, an 8-1 grappler, and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Max Holloway
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 22-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Gaethje, The Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Arnold Allen, Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: neat plus plus (75)
The first time Holloway moved up to 155 lbs to take on Dustin Poirier, he lost. Poirier looked much bigger. This time against Gaethje, Holloway out strikes him 181 to 103. Incredible. And when Holloway was going into his third fight with Volkanovski, I had both with 75 striking grades. Then Volkanovski wins in a landslide out striking Holloway 175 to 109. Originally, I thought Volkanovski’s striking had climbed to the top of the scale, an 80 grade. But then Volkanovski takes on Yair Rodriguez, and I wasn’t quite sure what to do with the numbers as Rodriguez amazingly out landed him 38 to 25. I know for sure Rodriguez’s striking isn’t an 80. Thus, the most plausible reason for Volkanovski blowing out Holloway is probably related to Holloway breaking his nose mid way through the fight and then Volkanovski running away with it. So Volkanovski’s striking is a 75. That said, Volkanovski matches up with Topuria and Volkanovski clearly out strikes Topuria 44 to 28, up until the KO. This goes against the narrative, but I still have Topuria’s striking as a 70. I could be wrong. Striking could be as high as a 75, but it’s not quite there yet for me.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holloway -250
Robert Whittaker vs Khamzat Chimaev
- Robert Whittaker
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 14-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ikram Aliskerov, Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero (twice), MarvinJared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Khamzat Chimaev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Holland and Jingliang Li. Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Gilbert Burns. Majority decision over Kamaru Usman.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Being that this is a 5 round fight, it’s likely going to be decided in the 1st round. Chimaev is likely to do his usual sprint to start the fight, will likely take Whittaker down. And it’s just a question of can Whittaker weather the storm.
Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Whittaker -175
Magomed Ankalaev vs Aleksandar Rakic
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out Anthony Smith. Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Draws: Fought Jan Blachowicz to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Johnny Walker, Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
- Aleksandar Rakic
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
For awhile, I’ve thought Walker has had 75 striking. Especially after the Jamahal Hill and Anthony Smith fight. But the Hill fight only lasted a couple minutes and Walker got knocked out. And Smith has been inconsistent with striking that some nights can be a 65, sometimes a 70. But it wasn’t until Walker’s last night with Volkan Oezdemir that really has me doubting his striking is a 75 as Oezdemir out landed him 33 to 15. All that said, Ankalaev was out struck 14 to 7 in the first Walker fight and in the second fight Ankalaev landed more 38 to 24. Not enough for me to move Ankalaev’s striking grade up. I thought Rakic was coming into the Prochazka fight with 70 striking. But to my surprise, he actually out struck Prochazka 56 to 45. Rakic got knocked out. But clearly Rakic’s striking has leveled up to a 75 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Rakic by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rakic -225
Lerone Murphy vs Dan Ige
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos. Beat Edson Barboza, Josh Culibao, Douglas Silva de Andrade, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Gabriel Santos.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Dan Ige
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fili, Damon Jackson, and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Murphy reached new heights in his last match with Barboza. Gigantic step forward in the striking as he out landed Barboza 205 to 77.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Murphy -300
Shara Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan
- Shara Magomedov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Trocolli, a 16-4 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Bruno Silva and a 21-5 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and AJ Dobson. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I spent a bunch of time digging into how good Bruno Silva’s skills are. His fight with Chris Weidman really threw me off. But I’ve became convinced Silva has 65 striking and 65 wrestling. That said, Magomedov showed 70 striking and 60 wrestling in his fight with Silva. Fast forward to Magomedov’s last fight, he was still taken down and controlled for quite a bit towards the 2nd half of the fight. Striking was close to equal, but I tend to think it had more to do with Oleksiejzuk’s striking being in the lower end of a 70 grade. I could be wrong, but I think Oleksiejczuk’s wrestling is still a 65 and therefore, Magomedov’s wrestling is probably still a 60. Despite Petrosyan’s 1st round submission loss to Rodolfo Vieira, his skills remain intact as he out struck his next to last opponent Duncan 77 to 58 showing it’s a true 70 tool. And Duncan was also 0 for 3 on takedown attempts. Matter of fact, Petrosyan got a 3rd round take down and over 2 minutes of control time. Wouldn’t be surprised if Petrosyan mixes some wrestling in.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrosyan -175
Ibo Aslan vs Raffael Cerqueira
- Ibo Aslan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anton Turkalj, a 12-2 striker, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Raffael Cerqueira
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’m not sure what to make of Cerqueira. I watched one of his last fights, against a 1-1 grappler. Thought Cerqueira would have an easy time. Except Cerqueira was almost too patient, allowed the opponent to land a lot while Cerqueira focused on just throwing power shots. Cerqueira got the KO, but not sure how that approach will work against a top prospect like Aslan.
Chris’ Pick: Aslan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aslan -350
Rafael dos Anjos vs Geoff Neal
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 5-5 at 170 lbs. 21-14 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Submitted Bryan Barberena. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ian Garry.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Mike Perry, and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Neal by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Neal -400
Myktybek Orolbai vs Mateusz Rebecki
- Myktybek Orolbai
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-1-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Uros Medic. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Elves Brener, a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Loik Radzhabov, a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted Roosevelt Roberts, a 12-2 striker. Beat Nick Fiore and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Orolbai by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Orolbai -125
Brunno Ferreira vs Abus Magomedov
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus, Phil Hawes, Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Abus Magomedov
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 26-5-1
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker. Beat Warlley Alves.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Magomedov showed off a very legit 70 wrestling tool last time out with Alves. Very possible his striking is a 70 grade but it’s hard for me to get there when Alves out struck him 16 to 9, albeit in a low sample. Market seemed to think Ferreira had 70 striking and that seems to be the case as Ferreira out struck Stoltzfus 22 to 13. Also interesting about Ferreira is he has 7 fights in a row that have all ended in the 1st round, meaning it’s been over 2 years since he last fought in the 2nd round. And in 13 pro fights, Ferreira has never fought in the 3rd round.
Chris’ Pick: Ferreira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ferreira -125
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Chris Barnett
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-5 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg. Submitted Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Chris Barnett
- Age: 38
- Pro Record: 23-8
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Collier and a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Nzechukwu makes his heavyweight debut after a real confounding fight against Ovince St Preux. I really don’t know how to explain that one other than maybe Nzechukwu’s weight cut to 205 lbs went really bad. But I’ve seen too much of him to down grade any of his skills. Most plausible that the St Preux fight was an outlier.
Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nzechukwu -325
Farid Basharat vs Victor Hugo
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kleydson Rodrigues. Beat Taylor Lapilus, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Victor Hugo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 25-4
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 16-1 fighter. Knocked out an 18-4 striker. Beat Pedro Falcao, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 6-0-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Hugo’s striking is really close to a 65 grade. But Pedro Falcao accrued over 7 minutes of control time in Hugo’s last fight so I have to down grade Hugo’s grappling to a 60. Market thought Basharat’s striking was a 70 going into his last fight with Lapilus and the market was right.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Basharat -500
Bruno Silva vs Ismail Naurdiev
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ismail Naurdiev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 23-7
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat Siyar Bahadurzada and Michel Prazeres.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
On the surface, the numbers from the Silva vs Weidman fight don’t make sense. Silva has proven legit 65 striking in his fight against Tavares. Legit 65 wrestling against Gerald Meerschaert. And he did show that 65 wrestling tool off against Weidman as Weidman was only able to get 1 take down and was stuffed the rest of the way. But the fight on the feet was a mess. The striking numbers show Weidman out striking Silva 56 to 29, but what you wouldn’t know unless you watch the fight is that Silva was on the receiving end of 4 eye pokes, including 2 eye pokes that led to a bad TKO stoppage. Unless Vadym Kutsyi and Daniel Frunza are better than I think, Naurdiev hasn’t developed much since we last saw him in the UFC.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -225
Rinat Fakheretdinov vs Carlos Leal
- Rinat Fakhretdinov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 21-1-1
- UFC Record: 3-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Beat Andreas Michailidis. Split decision over Nicolas Dalby.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlos Leal
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 21-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 15-6 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-3 wrestler, a well rounded 13-3 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Split decision over a 8-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite losing a split decision to a 15-6 wrestler last year, Leal has looked improved in his last couple fights. Also seems to be carrying more power than he used to.
Chris’ Pick: Fakheretdinov by decision.
What odds do I think the favorite should be at: Fakheretdinov -325