Moreno vs Albazi, Namajunas vs Blanchfield, Machado vs Ribeiro Fight Picks – November 2, 2024

Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi

  • Brandon Moreno
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 9-5-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval.
  • Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit. 
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)
  • Amir Albazi
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Francisco Figueiredo, Malcolm Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, and a 6-2 striker. Knocked out Alessandro Costa. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over Kai Kara-France.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Moreno showed he’s at Kara France’s level, that the two are similar. I expect Moreno’s fight with Albazi to be similar to Albazi vs Kara France.

Chris’ Pick: Moreno by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moreno -250


Rose Namajunas vs Erin Blanchfield

  • Rose Namajunas
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 2-1 at 125 lbs. 13-5 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Erin Blanchfield
  • Age: 25
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Jessica Andrade, Molly McCann, and JJ Aldrich. Beat Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick, and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

Namajunas really struggles against wrestlers. I think if Namajunas couldn’t handle the likes of Carla Esparza at 115 lbs, how is she going to handle someone bigger in Blanchfield at 125 lbs.

Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blanchfield -200


Caio Machado vs Brendson Ribeiro

  • Caio Machado
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 7-3-1
  • UFC Record: 1-2 at heavyweight.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Brendson Ribeiro
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 15-7
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Antonio Arroyo and a 6-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Machado cuts down to 205 lbs for the first time in the UFC. I think his tools play up a lot better there. Slight possibility Ribeiro’s wrestling could be a 55 with how Magomed Gadzhiyasulov dominated him on the ground with almost 10 minutes of control time. I also don’t trust Ribeiro’s chin as he’s been knocked out in 3 of his last 7 pro fights.

Chris’ Pick: Machado by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Machado -350


Ariane da Silva vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

  • Ariane da Silva
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-6
  • Key Wins: Submitted Casey O’Neil, Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat JJ Aldrich and Mandy Bohm. Split decision over Melissa Gatto.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Jasmine Jasudavicius
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira. Beat Fatima Kline, Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jasudavicius -175


Marc Andre Barriault vs Dustin Stoltzfus

  • Marc-Andre Barriault
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 5-7
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Curtis.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Eryk Anders and Dalcha Lungiambula.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Dustin Stoltzfus
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 3-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Puna Soriano. Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Stolzfus by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Stoltzfus -225


Mike Malott vs Trevin Giles

  • Mike Malott
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Adam Fugitt, Yohan Lainesse, a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Trevin Giles
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 7-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Louis Cosce and Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Preston Parsons and Ryan Spann.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Yes, Giles got knocked out by Carlos Prates in his last fight. But let’s look at the striking numbers. Up until the KO, Giles was amazingly out striking Prates 67 to 37. Wow. And after really digging into the numbers, I’m really coinvinced Prates’ striking was a 65 and wrestling was a 60 in this fight. That said, the numbers are the numbers. Up until the KO, Giles was winning the fight, landing more. And seemed to have a slight advantage in the clinch when they were there. I feel like I’m over rating Giles, but the numbers and data are forcing me to do it. It’s not just because Malott ran out of gas in the 3rd round against Neil Magny. It’s because Malott also struggled to take Magny down in the 1st round as well and for that reason I’m downgrading his grappling to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Giles by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Giles -200


Pedro Munhoz vs Aiemann Zahabi

  • Pedro Munhoz
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 10-9
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Chris Guttierez, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Aiemann Zahabi
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Qileng Aori, Drako Rodriguez. Beat Javid Basharat, Ricky Turcios, and a 13-4 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

I understand why the market had Kyler Phillips as a -500 favorite over Font. Phillips was coming off a dominant win over Munhoz where he out struck Munhoz 111 to 48. And the market thought Phillips striking had elevated to a 75 grade. But the mistake the market made was in not recognizing that at the same time Munhoz was starting to regress. And that proved to be true as Font out struck Phillips 56 to 32. Thus I’m now confident in grading Munhoz’s striking as a 65. And I think his grappling is down to a 60, but will admit that’s more of a projection. Zahabi might be one of the most improved fighters in the UFC which is really impressive considering his age. He out struck Basharat 74 to 67, so his striking tool is a legit 65.

Chris’ Pick: Zahabi by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zahabi -200


Charles Jourdain vs Victor Henry

  • Charles Jourdain
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-7-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson. Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
  • Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Ricardo Ramos, Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Kron Gracie and Andre Ewell.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Victor Henry
  • Age: 37
  • Pro Record: 24-6
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rani Yahya and Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision wins over Tony Gravely and Kyler Phillips.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jourdain -250


Jack Shore vs Youssef Zalal

  • Jack Shore
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Makwan Amirkhani, a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Timur Valiev and Liudvik Sholinian. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Youssef Zalal
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 5-3-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson.
  • Key Draws: Fought Da’Mon Blackshear to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jarno Errens, Billy Quarantillo, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Zalal by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zalal -135


Alexandr Romanov vs Rodrigo Nascimento

  • Alexandr Romanov
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 6-3
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Marcin Tybura.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Beat Balogi Ivanov. Split decision over Juan Espino.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker. Beat Don’Tale Mayes. Split decision wins over Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

It’s hard to know what to make of Romanov getting submitted by Jailton Almeida in less than 3 minutes. On the one hand, my knee jerk reaction is to downgrade his wrestling. On the other hand, I’ve seen a lot of Romanov fights and his last fight before Almeida was with Ivanov and that was really impressive. I think the Almeida fight could be an outlier.

Chris’ Pick: Romanov by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Romanov -400


Garrett Armfield vs Serhiy Sidey

  • Garrett Armfield
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-4
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a well rounded 4-1-1 fighter. Beat Brad Katona.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Serhiy Sidey
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ramon Tavares.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ramon Taveras and a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: average (50)

Sidey’s inability to take Taveras down is what makes me think I probably have him graded correctly. Market closed with Armfield as a -225 favorite over Brady Hiestand. I agreed. And Armfield was inches away from a 2nd round KO win. But Hiestand survived and Armfield’s gas tank was near empty.

Chris’ Pick: Armfield by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Armfield -500


Chad Anheliger vs Cody Gibson

  • Chad Anheliger
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jesse Strader, Brady Hiestand, a 4-1 grappler, and a 5-2 striker. Beat Charalampos Grigoriou. Split decision over a well rounded 16-3 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Cody Gibson
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 2-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher and Francisco Rivera. Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat John Dodson and a 19-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

I previously thought Anheliger had 60 tools. But I’m pretty sure I have Grigoriou graded correctly and based on that fight, I’m down grading Anheliger’s tools down to 55’s. Amazingly, it’s somewhat possible that even though he’s 37 years old, Gibson’s striking could be as high as a 65, grappling could be as high as a 70. Might be. Haven’t seen enough of him though for me to get there yet.

Chris’ Pick: Gibson by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gibson -350


Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Ivana Petrovic

  • Jamey-Lyn Horth
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Veronica Hardy.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 grappker. Knocked out a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Beat Hailey Cowan.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Ivana Petrovic
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Na Liang and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Market had Petrovic as a crazy -475 favorite against Liang Na last time out. And as in most Liang fights, the 1st round was close with Liang emptying the gas tank for a 1st round finish. Liang didn’t get it, ran out of gas, and Petrovic got the submission in the 3rd round. So it’s hard to grade Liang’s skills because of that and hard to make any changes to grading Petrovic’s tools.

Chris’ Pick: Petrovic by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrovic -125

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