Asu Almabayev vs Manel Kape
- Asu Almabayev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 21-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat Jose Johnson, CJ Vergara, a 4-0 grappler, and a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (65)
- Manel Kape
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Silva, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ode Osbourne, and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker. Beat Felipe dos Santos and David Dvorak.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Part of me is reluctant to elevate Kape’s striking to a 75, but the numbers are the numbers and Kape out struck Silva 109 to 55.
Chris’ Pick: Kape by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kape -225
Julian Marquez vs Cody Brundage
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zachary Reese and Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Brundage by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brundage -175
Esteban Ribovics vs Nasrat Haqparast
- Esteban Ribovics
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Beat Kamuela Kirk. Split decision over Daniel Zellhuber.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nasrat Haqparast
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and Joaquim Silva. Beat Landon Quinones, John Makdessi, Rafa Garcia, and Marc Diakiese. Split decision over Jared Gordon.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ribovics by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ribovics -135
William Gomis vs Hyder Amil
- William Gomis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri and a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision wins over Joanderson Brito and Francis Marshall. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Hyder Amil
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeong Yeong Lee and Fernie Garcia. Beat a 14-4 striker. Split decision win over a 9-7 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Yes, Amil’s 65 second KO over Lee was spectacular to watch. He also looked spectacular in the numbers as he out struck Lee 42 to 4. But Lee came in as a -190 favorite, which I agreed with. I had seen two Amil fights prior. Now, is it possible he showed up with improved 65 striking? Of course. But I’m not ready to upgrade his striking. He fought at an unsustainable pace.
Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gomis -350
Sam Patterson vs Danny Barlow
- Sam Patterson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie, Yohan Lainesse, an 8-1 grappler and a 14-1 grappler. Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Beat an 18-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Danny Barlow
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Quinlan and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Nikolay Veretennikov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Patterson by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Patterson -225
Mario Pinto vs Austen Lane
- Mario Pinto
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Austen Lane
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker. Beat Robelis Despagne.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Pinto by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pinto -125
Chepe Mariscal vs Ricardo Ramos
- Chepe Mariscal
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Jenkins. Beat Damon Jackson, Trevor Peek, and Youssef Zalal. Split decision wins over Morgan Charriere and Pat Sabatini.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Knocked out Danny Chavez. Split decision wins over Josh Culibao and Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Mariscal by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mariscal -250
Lucas Almeida vs Danny Silva
- Lucas Almeida
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Timothy Cuamba.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Danny Silva
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Canaan Kawaihae.
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-1 striker and a 4-0 wrestler. Split decision over Josh Culibao.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -250
Andrea Lee vs JJ Aldrich
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-8
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Montana de la Rosa, Maycee Barber, Lauren Murphy, and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na LIang. Beat Montana de la Rosa, Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aldrich -175
Charles Johnson vs Ramazonbek Temirov
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joshua Van, Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Sumudaerji, Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ramazonbek Temirov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out CJ Vergara, a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market thinks Temirov has 65 tools. I’m not there yet though. Yes, Temirov knocked Vergara out in a few minutes, but he blitzed Vergara and emptied the gas tank. So I have his striking as a 65 tool for now, but very possible it’s just a 60. But also possible he’s the real deal and his wrestling is a 65 instead. Sumudaerji out struck Johnson 68 to 49 and thus, I can’t grade his striking a 70 anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johnson -125