Gaethje vs Pimblett, Harrison vs Nunes, O’Malley vs Song Fight Picks – UFC 324 – January 24, 2026

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

  • Justin Gaethje
  • Age: 37
  • UFC record: 8-5
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler. Majority decision over Rafael Fiziev.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Paddy Pimblett
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted King Green, Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Michael Chandler, Luigi Vendramini, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Tony Ferguson and Julian Erosa.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near near plus (75)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Even if you said Chandler is regressing and not the same, I know 100% for sure that his striking is no worse than a 65 grade. And still, Pimblett out struck Chandler 43 to 10, taking a massive step forward in his skills. He also looked bigger than in previous fights.

Chris’ Pick: Pimblett by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pimblett -250


Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

  • Kayla Harrison
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 19-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Ketlen Vieira, Aspen Ladd, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 6-2 grappler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)
  • Amanda Nunes
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 16-2
  • Key Wins: Beat Irene Aldana, Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Megan Anderson and Miesha Tate. Beat Julianna Pena, Felicia Spencer, and Valentina Shevchenko twice.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

If this fight was made in 2023 or 2024, I’d easily favor Nunes to win. But Nunes retired and hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. And it’s a lot to expect that her 75 tools are still intact, that there hasn’t been regression. Meanwhile Harrison has been active and her striking did fine against Pena, actually out striking her 15 to 5. Slight possibility Harrison’s grappling could be as high as an 80. I also have more faith in Harrison’s cardio over 5 rounds. But at the same time, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Nunes shows up, stuffs take downs and knocks Harrison out either.

Chris’ Pick: Nunes by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nunes -135


Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong

  • Sean O’Malley
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 10-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling, Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Marlon Vera and Andre Soukhamthath.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Song Yadong
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 11-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Henry Cejudo, Chris Gutierrez, Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Song has been very inactive only fighting once in 2024 and 2025. His skills have also plateaued.

Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: O’Malley -225


Derrick Lewis vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

  • Derrick Lewis
  • Age: 40
  • UFC Record: 20-10
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tallison Teixeira, Rodrigo Nascimento, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 9-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gaziev, Ryan Spann, Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Serghei Spivac, Robelis Despagne, Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Cortes Acosta by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cortes Acosta -225


Jean Silva vs Arnold Allen

  • Jean Silva
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Melsyk Baghdasaryan, Drew Dober, Charles Jourdain, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 5-2 striker. Submitted Bryce Mitchell and a 5-2 striker. Beat an 11-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Arnold Allen
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 11-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker. Beat Giga Chikadze, Sodiq Yusuff, Nik Lentz, and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Despite getting knocked out in his last fight, Silva’s striking took another step forward as he out struck Diego Lopes 42 to 31 solidifying a 75 grade for the tool.

Chris’ Pick: Silva by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -300


Rose Namajunas vs Natalia Sliva

  • Rose Namajunas
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 3-2 at 125 lbs. 13-5 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Miranda Maverick, Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Natalia Silva
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo, Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Alexa Grasso, Jessica Andrade, Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

I was wrong about Namajunas. The regression in her grappling has not begun. Tool is indeed still a 70. Market was right to price her as a -240 over Maverick. The las time Silva’s wrestling was really tested was 3 fights ago with her against Araujo. And Araujo did get over 6 minutes on control time. And yes, I know Silva really ran up the score against Andrade on the feet, 106 to 48, as we’ve seen, Andrade’s skills are regressing aggressively. Yes, Silva landed a few more strikes on Grasso, but it’s not really enough for Silva’s striking to be a 75.

Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Namajunas -125


Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

  • Umar Nurmagomedov
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 7-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Raoni Barcelos. Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat Mario Bautista, Cory Sandhagen, Bekzat Almakhan, Nathan Maness, a 12-0-1 grappler, and a 5-0 grappler. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Deiveson Figueiredo  
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 4-2 at 135 lbs. 14-4-1 overall.
  • Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja. Split decision over Montel Jackson.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Nurmagomedov has 75 wrestling. That’s easy. But I was really surprised to see the striking with Nurmagomedov and Bautista be close to equal. Highly doubt Bautista has 75 striking to go along with wrestling that’s clearly just a 70 grade. Nurmagomedov will be a heavy favorite but this is close to a coin flip fight because Figueiredo has 2 realistic paths to win with his submission game and having more power than Nurmagomedov.

Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nurmagomedov -125


Ateba Gauthier vs Andrey Pulyaev

  • Ateba Gautier
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Robert Valentin and a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Andrey Pulyaev
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 9-3
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Gauthier by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gauthier -135


Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas

  • Nikita Krylov
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 10-8
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson, Ed Herman, and Walt Harris. Submitted Ryan Spann, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux. Beat Volkan Oezdemir.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Modestas Bukauskas
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Raffael Cerqueira, Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Zac Pauga and Tyson Pedro. Split decision over Ion Cutelaba.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Krylov by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Krylov -225


Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

  • Alex Perez
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 8-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matheus Nicolau, Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Charles Johnson
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 7-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Lone’er Kavanagh, Joshua Van, Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Sumudaerji, Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -225


Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez

  • Michael Johnson
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 14-13 at 155 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar, Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Daniel Zellhuber, Darius Flowers, Marc Diakiese, and Edson Barboza.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Alexander Hernandez
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 10-7
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damon Jackson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Chase Hooper, Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Kurt Holobaugh, Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo. Split decision over Austin Hubbard.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Going into Johnson’s fight with Zellhuber, the market was pricing Zellhuber’s striking as a 70, despite getting out struck by Esteban Ribovics 154 to 117. Big mistake as Johnson, who I thought only had 65 striking, proceeded to out land Zellhuber 77 to 50. Wow. I don’t think Zellhuber’s striking is worse than a 65 so it appears that peak Johnson is probably back. Amazing at 39 years of age. I might be late to the party on Hernandez but I still don’t see enough evidence his striking has improved to a 70. I could be wrong, but more plausible than Ferreira has regressed at 40 years of age. After all, Chase Hooper did out strike Hernandez 20 to 13 less than a year ago.

Chris’ Pick: Johnson by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johnson -200


Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman

  • Josh Hokit
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Max Gimenis and a 6-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Denzel Freeman
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Steven Asplund. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat Marek Bujlo.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Hokit by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hokit -135


Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman

  • Ricky Turcios
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 2-4
  • Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Kevin Natividad, Brady Hiestand, and Steve Garcia.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Cameron Smotherman
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 12-6
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Beat Jake Hadley. Split decision win over a well rounded 2-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Turcios by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Turcios -250


Ty Miller vs Adam Fugitt

  • Ty Miller
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Beat a 7-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Adam Fugitt
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Split decision over Josh Quinlan.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Fugitt by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fugitt -200

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