Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 16-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abus Magomedov, Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Paulo Costa, Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Roman Dolidze, Roman Kopylov, a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, and a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 4th round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -250
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ian Garry.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Mike Perry, and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Uros Medic
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Muslim Salikhov, Gilbert Urbina, Matthew Semelsberger, Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Yes, Neal has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, but the losses have been against Carlos Prates, Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhminov. And it was a split decision loss to Machado Garry too.
Chris’ Pick: Neal by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Neal -225
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa
- Dan Ige
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Woodson, Andre Fili, Damon Jackson, and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Melquizael Costa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nuerdanbieke Shayilan. Knocked out Morgan Charriere, a 14-2 striker. Beat Julian Erosa, Christian Rodriguez, Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Ige by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ige -135
Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcin Tybura, Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ante Delija
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 26-7
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 9-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Delija by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Delija -135
Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell
- Jacobe Smith
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Niko Price. Knocked out Preston Parsons and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Josiah Harrell
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Knocked out a 13-2 wrestler and a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Despite the undefeated record and almost all of his wins coming by finish, I watched Harrell take on a well rounded 5-0 fighter and I wasn’t that impressed. Harrell was losing most of the fight. Was taken down and controlled. But it seemed his opponent started to gas out and Harrell took advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -450
Michel Pereira vs Zachary Reese
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 185 lbs. 10-5 overall.
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted Ihor Potieria, Michel Oleksiejczuk and an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Dusko Todorovic and Jose Medina.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -225
Carlos Leal vs Chidi Njokuani
- Carlos Leal
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 22-7
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 15-6 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Morono, a 12-3 wrestler, a well rounded 13-3 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Split decision over a 8-3 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat Jared Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Rhys McKee and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Leal by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Leal -175
Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Adiris
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luis Gurule, Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara. Split decision over Charles Johnson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Idiris Alibi
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 striker, a 4-1 striker, and an 8-2 wrestler. Beat an 8-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite the loss in his last fight and the below .500 UFC record, Osbourne really leveled up. Very possible Steve Erceg is already starting to regress, but despite that, Osbourne still out struck him 29 to 12.
Chris’ Pick: Osbourne by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Osbourne -250
Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule
- Alden Coria
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alessandro Costa and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Luis Gurule
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter, a 12-4 wrestler, and a 9-3 wrestler. Split decision over Nick Piccininni.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Coria by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Coria -300
Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards
- Nora Cornolle
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jacqueline Cavalcanti.
- Key Wins: Submitted Hailey Cowan. Knocked out Melissa Mullins. Beat Joselyne Edwards.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Priscila Cachoeira and Chelsea Chandler. Submitted Tamires Vidal, an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Edwards wrestling has improved and it’s close to a 65. Skill wise, Cornolle took a big step back in her last fight getting out classed on the ground by Karol Rosa.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Edwards -135
Punahele Soriano vs Ramij Brahimaj
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 170 lbs. 7-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uros Medic, Dalcha Lungiambula, Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Nikolay Veretennikov, Miguel Baeza, Jamie Pickett, and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall. Submitted Austin Vanderford, Billy Ray Goff, Sasha Palatnikov, and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
The market had Punahele Soriano as a near 3 to 1 favorite over Veretennikov. Ok, fine. But the fight turned out to be a total wipeout where Soriano out classed him on the ground. Over 12 minutes of control time. So what happened? Well, I’ve seen Veretennikov fight 5 times in the UFC now. Decently confident I have him graded right, so most plausible is Soriano has taken a step forward in his new weight class at 170 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Soriano -250
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Phil Rowe
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler and a 9-3 grappler. Beat a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Phil Rowe
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Neil Magny.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price, Jason Witt, Orion Cosce, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Rowe by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rowe -200
Yadier de Valle vs Jordan Leavitt
- Yadier Del Valle
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Connor Matthews and a 3-0 wrestler. Beat a 17-5 wrestler, Michael Aswell, a 3-0 grappler, and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Kurt Holobaugh, Matt Sayles, and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Knocked out Victor Martinez. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: de Valle by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: de Valle -135
Carli Judice vs Julianna Miller
- Carli Judice
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out Nicolle Caliari. Split decision losses to Gabriella Fernandes and Ernesta Kareckaite.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yuneisey Duben.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Juliana Miller
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 4-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brogan Walker. Beat Ivana Petrovic.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Judice by 1st round knockout.
What idds I think the favorite should be at: Judice -400