Rob Font vs Marlon Vera
- Rob Font
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 12-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Davey Grant.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’ve been debating the past couple years, trying to figure out if Vera has 70 grade striking. And once and for all, his fight with Edgar proved it’s a 65. I’m very confident Edgar’s striking is a 65. Edgar’s striking was close to equal with a 65 striker in Pedro Munhoz. And I know Munhoz has 65 striking based on Jose Aldo slightly out striking Munhoz. Well, Vera’s striking was close to equal with Edgar. Vera did have more power and that led to the KO. And the Edgar fight was also helpful because it proved Vera’s grappling is still a 65 as well, with Edgar getting a couple take downs and being able to keep Vera down for a bit. And yes, Font lost his last fight to Aldo. The judge’s scorecards were lopsided. Only 1 judge gave Font 1 round. The rest of the rounds from all the other judges went to Aldo. But want to know something crazy? Font out struck Aldo. By how much? 135 to 75. Wow. The problem Font had is that Aldo was landing with more power and hurting Font. Then Aldo got a few take downs too showing off his superior 70 wrestling. But yeah, Font came into the UFC knocking guys out. But the past few fights, especially in the Garbrandt fight and Aldo fight, he’s adopted more of a less power, more volume approach. Which usually can work. So despite the loss to Aldo, I’m keeping Font’s striking a 75. What he did to Aldo isn’t an aberration. Font out struck Garbrandt 168 to 51. That led to Font being a -160 favorite going into his Aldo fight. With Vera, he has power, but he has less than Aldo. I have it graded as a 65. And Font should be able to deal with that much better. I really like Font in this fight. I don’t see Vera being a threat anywhere. It’s also Vera’s first 5 round fight. He might mess up pacing himself, might run out of steam if they get to the 4th and 5th rounds. I see Font out pointing Vera and cruising.
Chris’ Pick: Font by decision.
What I think the line should be: Font -250
Jake Collier vs Andrei Arlovski
- Jake Collier
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-2 at heavyweight. 3-3 at light heavyweight.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 11-10 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell. Split decision over Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55).
I got to give Collier credit. I was wrong about him. He’s a guy that fought at middleweight, moved up to light heavyweight. Retired. Came back at heavyweight. He almost wasn’t recognizable. I didn’t take him seriously. But I was way wrong. Despite the 2-2 record, he’s proven to be a quality heavyweight with improving skills. Like his wrestling. he got better there. All it took was one take down on Sherman and a few minutes later, he sunk in the choke to get the submission. He was going to take on Justin Tafa, but he pulls out. In steps Arlovski and it’s a much more competitive fight. Arlovski is coming off a split decision win over Vanderaa, which I disagree, I think Vanderaa won, but it was close. Was a stand up fight, striking was close to equal. Arlovski’s cardio shouldn’t be that compromised, he’s taking the fight on 3 weeks notice. I see this being really similar to Arlovski vs Vanderaa. But if Collier’s wrestling is the 60 tool I think it is, he should use it in the fight. Maybe get a couple take downs. Could make the difference on the judges’ score cards.
Chris’ Pick: Collier by split decision.
What I think the line should be: Collier -125
Andre Fili vs Joanderson Brito
- Andre Fili
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision over Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I really didn’t think Brito was going to be able to keep it going. He started his last fight with Bill Algeo so fast that I felt for sure he would start to gas out in the 2nd round. But amazingly, it never happened. He wrestled and grappled Algeo almost the whole fight. Striking was slightly better than I thought too. More of a 60 than a 55. Fili is what he is at this point. 16 UFC fights in, developmentally, I think he’s at his ceiling. So for Fili to win, he needs to avoid Brito’s power and just avoid him in general. Get on his bike, stick and move, be faster. He’ll win if he does.
Chris’ Pick: Fili by decision.
What I think the line should be: Fili -135
Jared Gordon vs Grant Dawson
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Danny Chavez and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key draws: fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Michael Trizano. Beat Nad Narimani.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Complete coin flip fight. Clearly, Gordon has gotten better. I can’t deny that. I was really confident Solecki would be able to take Gordon down and control him all fight. And that’s the way it was looking after the 1st round. But Gordon proved to have better cardio and took over in the 2nd half. I thought maybe some of Gordon taking over was a result of Solecki gassing himself out in the 1st round going for all those submissions, but then again, the odds closed with Solecki as a small favorite. So I probably was under rating Gordon. Probably haha. Not completely sure. And I can’t take much from Dawson’s last fight with Glenn because I’m not sure yet how good he actually is. Dawson was a -300 favorite going into that fight, so is Dawson not as good as we think or is Glenn much better? Probably the latter. We’ve seen a big enough sample size on Dawson. But yeah, total pick em fight, coin flip. I give Dawson a slight edge because I’m more confident in where I’ve graded him and Dawson also trains at Glory MMA with James Krause.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by split decision.
Where I think the line should be: Dawson -110
Daren Elkins vs Tristan Connelly
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 16-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and Mirsad Bektic. Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Tristan Connelly
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 13-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat Michel Pereira.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Elkins looked really bad in his last fight. And maybe Cub Swanson made him look bad. Swanson isn’t known for KO power. Yes, he has 2 knockout wins in his last 3 fights. But before that, his last KO win was over Dennis Siver back in 2013. So maybe Cub’s has found a way to unlock KO power, but he’s 38 years old with a lot of mileage on his body. And Elkins signature attribute is supposed to be his durability. He’s The Damage! But Swanson got him out in about 2 minutes. So I think it has more to do with Elkins’ body just not being able to take the damage anymore. Meanwhile Connelly is only a year younger than Elkins, but has way less mileage on his body. A lot of Elkins’ wins happen when the opponent gets the upper hand and gasses out trying to go for the finish. But Connelly has great cardio, I don’t see him gassing out. Connelly has more power, there’s a chance he comes into the fight improved, better than what we saw last time. Close fight, but Connelly is more likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Connelly by split decision.
What I think the line should be: Connelly -135
Gerald Meerschart vs Krzysztof Jotko
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Krzysztof Jotko
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Magnus Cedenblad. Split decision loss to David Branch.
- Key Wins: Beat Thales Leites and Eryk Anders. Split decisions over Misha Cirkunov and Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus wrestling (65)
For a few moments, after looking over the numbers on Meerschaert vs Muradov, I almost thought that Meerschaert had improved his striking to a 65. After all. I had Muradov graded as a 70 striker. And I wasn’t the only one. Muradov was a -500 favorite going into that fight. And when all the dust had settled, the striking in that fight was close to equal. But I rewatched the fight. And the important context that’s missing from the data is that Muradov nearly knocked out Meerschaert in the 1st round. Gassed himself out a bit going for the finish. And was never the same after that. Possible adrenaline dump. It’s likely Muradov’s striking is closer to a 65, but the relevant part here is that I think Meerschaert’s striking is still a 60. And that’s important because with that grade, I’m confident in backing Jotko who’s 15 fights into his UFC career and you know what you’re getting from him. 65 striking. 65 wrestling. Those grades didn’t change at all in his last fight edging out Cirkunov. I see Jotko fighting the Jotko fight. Keeping distance. Not putting himself in any danger. I see him out pointing Meerschaert.
Chris’ Pick: Jotko by decision.
What I think the line should be: Jotko -200
Alexandr Romanov vs Chase Sherman
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 31Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite the 3-8 UFC record, Sherman has some tools. He does have 65 striking and power. He showed it off in his last fight against 65 striker Jake Collier. Before the Collier fight, he showed 60 wrestling. Then in the Collier fight, he was taken down and got caught in a choke a couple minutes in. But sometimes submissions happen, like KOs. On the surface, it looks like Sherman’s wrestling might be a 55, but with all the take down defense I’ve seen from him in the past, I think it’s closer to a 60. Sherman’s taking this fight on a little over a week’s notice. But that’s not as problematic for heavyweights. And Romanov’s cardio isn’t great either. Seems like he only has enough gas to wrestle for the first half of the fight. But look, the lines that have opened are insane. Romanov -1400 and Sherman coming back at +700. Just bananas. Look, Romanov is definitely more likely to win. He could overwhelm Sherman in the 1st round the same way that Collier did. But the oddsmakers think that Romanov has 70 grappling and I disagree. In my opinion it’s more like a 65. Therefore, I think Sherman has maybe a 45% chance of winning and I can’t ignore the +700.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Romanov -200
Francisco Figueiredo vs Daniel da Silva
- Francisco Figueiredo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jerome Rivera.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55).
- Daniel da Silva
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55).
Despite da Silva losing his UFC debut, I thought he did pretty well. He lost to Jeff Molina and there’s no shame in that. Molina looks like a potential contender. da Silva actually out struck Molina on the feet 14 to 9. I think the biggest reason da Silva lost is he had an adrenaline dump in the 1st round. Went too hard. Didn’t have much left in the gas tank by the 2nd round. Molina took him down and that was it. In Figueiredo’s last fight, he was a big 3 to 1 favorite against Malcolm Gordon and lost. I think it had more to do with Gordon showing up improved, but also provided a reality check in terms of where Francisco’s skills are at. I’m going to pick da Silva. He should have the better striking. But I don’t plan on betting him because I think Figueiredo has better wrestling and could use that to make it a close fight. Plus da Silva’s cardio is still a question mark for me too. Figueiredo could go into this fight with the game plan of wrestle with da Silva in the 1st round. Make him tired. Then take over the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: da SIlva by split decision.
What I think the line should be: da Silva -125
Gabe Green vs Yohan Lainesse
- Gabe Green
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Philip Rowe.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Yohan Lainesse
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 12-4 grappler. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Green went into his last fight with Rowe as an even money favorite. And the fight played out exactly how the line predicted it would. Close. Judges could’ve easily gave Rowe the fight. In any case, the fight proved I’m confident where I’m graded Green’s tools. Lainesse is more of an unknown. He took on Justin Burlinson on The Contender. Burlinson was getting a lot of hype going in. Opened as a -300 favorite. Closed around -450. People were convinced he’d have a big striking advantage. Instead Lainesse knocks him out. The sport is crazy. But it’s not like we learned a lot about Lainesse. He litterally out struck Burlinson 3 strikes to 1 strike. Fight was over in less than 2 minutes. I had Lainesse’s striking graded a 50 going into it. I guess I’m willing to upgrade the tool to a 55, but no way would I put it as a 60 at this point. And it’s still possible the tool is a 50. Knockouts happen sometimes. But Green is a sure thing. Even if Lainesse’s striking is a 55, Green has margin to win.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What I think the line should be: Green -250
Mike Breeden vs Natan Levy
- Mike Breeden
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Natan Levy
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Majority decision over a 5-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Breeden got knocked out in last fight with Alexander Hernandez in less than 2 minutes. Not much to take out of that fight. But his fight on The Contender, he lost, but was able to stuff Anthony Romero’s take downs showing 55 wrestling. And Levy lost to Rafa Garcia, but it was closer than I thought it would be and he showed improved striking to where I now have that tool at a 55. Should be a close fight, stand up fight. Levy should land more strikes, but Breeden has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Levy by decision.
What I think the line should be: Levy -125
Gina Mazany vs Shanna Young
- Gina Mazany
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Wins: Beat Yanan Wu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Shanna Young
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-4
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Split decision over Pam Sorenson.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Yes, Mazany got knocked out in her last fight with Priscila Cachoeira, but she actually showed improved striking. I know Cachoeira has 60 striking. And to the eye, it looked like Cachoeira was getting the better of it. But if you look at the numbers, the striking was close to equal. Mazany lost because she ran out of gas. Relied on the wrestling too much. Young has well rounded 55 tools but has plateaued in her development. Lost to Stephanie Egger from take downs and ground and pound. Mazany is better everywhere and has a lot more power.
Chris’ Pick: Mazany by decision.
What I think the line should be: Mazany -275
Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Candelario
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I was wrong about Candelario. I had his tools graded way lower than they should’ve been. He took on Victor Altamirano on The Contender and I wasn’t that impressed by either guy. I was impressed by Carlos Hernandez though. He took on Altamirano and the fight was super close. Turns out I was under rating Altamirano and thus under rating Candelario. He takes on Taira. I watched him take on a 6-2 striker. Taira did well. Looks like 55 striking and 55 grappling. But you never know with prospects and I’m not as confident with grades of fighters making their UFC debut. You just never know if the tools translate in the Octagon.
Chris’ Pick: Candelario by decision.
What I think the line should be: Candelario -200