Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
What’s funny is that a few fights into Aspinall’s UFC career, I questioned where his grappling tool was and that I graded it as low as a 55. Boy was I wrong. And even after I saw Aspinall easily shuck Spivac’s take down attempts off, that wouldn’t prepare me for seeing Aspinall take Volkov down not once, but twice and the end of the fight happening just about a minute later. Easy 75 grappling tool for me. No one has been able to do that to Volkov on the ground. I am grading Blaydes’ striking a 70 after he out struck Daukaus. But the thing with Blaydes, is that his opponents keeping their hands low, preparing for level changes is what can make his striking more effective than it normally would be. But Aspinall won’t be afraid of going to the ground, he’d actually probably welcome it. So I think most of this fight is on the feet where I give Aspinall a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aspinall -150
Chris Curtis vs Jack Hermansson
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 29-8
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Hermansson is coming off a loss, but the numbers show the loss was much closer than the commentators were making it seem. Striking for 4 of the 5 rounds was close to equal. Hermansson proving, at least for now, his striking is indeed a 70. And recently it’s come to my attention that Brendan Allen’s striking is a 60, not a 65. So if I change Curtis’ striking to a 60, his fights make a lot more sense. Hawes dominated Curtis in the stand up 46 to 18, before Curtis knocked him out. Then Curtis fought Allen, striking was equal. So Curtis’ striking being a 60 would explain why he got beat so badly in the stand up against Hawes but did better against Allen, instead of Curtis making this big improvement in his striking just a month against the Hawes fight. It also explains why Curtis out struck Vieira, but it wasn’t a wipeout. I thought maybe Vieira has improved his striking to a 60, but no, Curtis with 60 striking and Vieira has the 55 striking I thought he had. All that said, Curtis has done well in the UFC so far. But he’s now taking out a borderline top 5 guy in the division. And like I said above, Hermansson just proved his 70 striking. He’s going to put a 5 round type pace on Curtis and should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hermansson -400
Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Luigi Vendramini and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Julian Erosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
At the beginning of Pimblett’s last fight, he gets knocked down by Vargas and is on his back for a couple minutes. I thought he might be in trouble and asked myself, isn’t Pimblett the better grappler. But sure enough, Pimblett got back up when he put in the effort, seemed he wanted some time to recover from the knock down. Hip tossed Vargas to the ground and it was all over about a minute after that. Dominant grappling. 65 grade for me now. Leavitt is a young, quality prospect, 3-1 UFC record to start, but Pimblett has shown contender upside with both striking and grappling tools. Pimblett’s power in particular is going to give Leavitt problems from the jump.
Chris’ Pick: Pimblett by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pimblett -450
Alexander Gustafsson vs Nikita Krylov
- Alexander Gustafsson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris at heavyweight. Also knocked out Ed Herman. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
This fight is a giant unknown. Gustafsson hasn’t fought in 2 years, but that was a weird one where he fought at heavyweight and got submitted in a couple minutes by Fabricio Werdum. He hasn’t fought at 205 lbs in 3 years where he fought Anthony Smith. Striking with Smith was close to equal and it was a weird ending. In the 4th round, Gustafsson tried to take Smith down but Smith ended up on top. And Gustafsson wasn’t able to get back up after that, maybe he was just out of gas. But that was the same way he lost to Jon Jones in their second fight. Was taken down in the 3rd round and couldn’t get back up. But who knows where his tools are at. He already retired once and is now on the comeback trail. He could show up way improved or a shell of his former self. Who knows. But we have a pretty good idea of what we’re getting with Krylov. And he looked good in his last fight, taking Paul Craig down, controlling him on top. Looked good until he didn’t when Craig slapped a triangle choke on him. I have both guys graded equally, but Gustafsson’s tools are based on what he did 3 years ago in the Smith fight, so I’m picking Krylov because there’s tons of risk that Gustafsson will show regression.
Chris’ Pick: Krylov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Krylov -135
Molly McCann vs Hannah Goldy
- Molly McCann
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luana Carolina. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60).
- Hannah Goldy
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Emily Whitmire. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
McCann is tough to grade right now. Yes, she got that spectacular spinning elbow knockout over Carolina, but let’s look under the hood. She out struck Carolina 47 to 16 in the 1st round. She had Carolina hurt and went crazy trying to go for the KO. Didn’t get it. Then in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the striking was close to equal. I think that was because McCann emptied most of the gas tank and had she not done that, she would’ve out struck Carolina. So I’m upgrading her striking to a 65, but I’m keeping her power at a 55 because that was her first UFC knockout. She has 12 career wins, only 5 KO’s. Maybe she’s found a way to unlock more power or maybe she got lucky. We’ll see. Goldy appears to also be coming off the biggest win in her career, submitting 55 grappler Whitmire. But again, let’s look beneath the surface. And if you watch the fight, it’s curious that Whitmire took Goldy down not once but twice. I thought they’d be able to neutralize each other. Maybe Whitmire improved herself to a 60. Probably what happened. In any case, Goldy got the arm bar from her back. But Goldy did out strike Whitmire which was what I expected. But it’s going to be really tough for her to beat McCann who I’m confident has improved her wrestling to a 60 by taking 55 wrestler Carolina down and controlling her for a bit. Goldy is going to be forced to stand and that’s not going to go well for her.
Chris’ Pick: McCann by decision.
What I think the odds should be: McCann -400
Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir
- Paul Craig
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamahal Hill and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
This fight could really come down to whether Oezdemir fights a smart fight. Nikita Krylov might have been capable of beating Craig, but for some reason stayed in top control and decided to fight from the ground. But was then caught in a triangle hold and tapped. Craig has improved on the feet but doesn’t have the power to match Oezdemir in the striking. The past couple fights with Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic have proved Oezdemir has improved his wrestling to a 70. So I think he can keep the fight standing up if he wants.
Chris’ Pick: Oezdemir by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oezdemir -250
Ludovit Klein vs Mason Jones
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Mason Jones
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 6-2 grappler, and a 12-1 wrestler. Beat David Onama.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Turns out Nate Landwehr is good. And that Klein is not over rated. Because I was pretty confident in Smith beating Klein, especially being that Klein took the fight on short notice. But instead Klein made it a really close fight where the striking was close to equal. Jones hasn’t fought in close to a year. His last fight, he was a -450 favorite, thought he’d have an easy night taking on someone taking the fight on a week’s notice. But unfortunately for Jones, the opponent was Onama, who’s really good. Coin flip fight between two exciting prospects, but I’m more confident in Jones’ striking being a 65 than Klein’s.
Chris’ Pick: Jones by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jones -125
Marc Diakiese vs Damir Hadzovic
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Viacheslav Borshchev, Joseph Duffy, and Lando Vannata.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Damir Hadzovic
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Patrick.
- Key Wins: Beat Yancy Medeiros. Split decision over Nick Hein.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I remember back in the day, it was Diakiese losing fights from being taken down and controlled. But in his last fight with -155 favorite Borshchev, he was able to return the favor. Wrestling and controlling for almost the whole fight. Diakiese has gotten better and it’s even possible his wrestling could be a 65 depending on how good you think Borshchev is there. Hadzovic has only had 2 fights in the last 3 years. And one of those was him getting submitted in about a minute. So not that active. His last fight with Medeiros, who has well rounded 55 tools, Hadzovic was able to out strike him, improving the tool to a 60, but I expect Diakiese to win on the feet here.
Chris’ Pick: Diakiese by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Diakiese -250
Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Rosa
- Nathaniel Wood
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez,
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Charles Rosa
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Darrick Minner. Split decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
- Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Split decisions over Kevin Aguilar and Justin Jaynes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’m still surprised Casey Kenney was such a big favorite going into his fight with Wood. Even more surprising is that the judges thought Kenney won the fight. Totally disagree. Wood out struck Kenney by a decent chunk. But in any case, Wood solidified his 70 striking there. The grappling is a 70 too. And Wood hasn’t fought in close to 2 years so he should be a better version than the last time we saw him. Rosa steps in on short notice again, but at least this time, he gets a few weeks to prepare. His last fight with TJ Brown, he took that on just a few days notice. But he won’t have the skills to beat Wood. The best way to grade Rosa’s skills is to look what happened in his fight with Damon Jackson and Jackson, who has 65 wrestling was able to take him down and dominate him. And if Jackson was able to do it, I’m confident Wood will be able to do the same.
Chris’ Pick: Wood by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Wood -700
Makwan Amirkhani vs Jonathan Pearce
- Makwan Amirkhani
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Kamuela Kirk. Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mike Grundy, Danny Henry, and Chris Fishgold.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kai Kamaka III and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales. Beat Christian Rodriguez
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I can’t really take too much out of both of these guys’ last fights. Pearce was expected to dominate Christian Rodriguez, but it ended up being closer than I would’ve liked. Probably because Rodriguez showed up improved or was just better than everybody realized. And with Amirkhani, he submitted Grundy in 1 minute. That’s like a flash knockout. Those things happen sometimes and there’s just no data to really go off of to see whether he’s developed at all. These two are similar, but the one differentiator is that Pearce has a lot more power and Amirkhani can be knocked out. 2 of his last 4 losses are by KO.
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pearce -150
Muhammad Mokaev vs Charles Johnson
- Muhammad Mokaev
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m still not entirely sure what to grade Mokaev. Made his UFC debut against Durden. And the line closed at -490. Which was crazy for me. Durden is a really good prospect. He proved it just this past week knocking out JP Buys. But I didn’t get the answers I was looking for in the Durden fight because it was over in about a minute. The record will show Mokaev by submission, but what really did Durden in was a flying knee by Mokaev that knocked Durden down. But I can’t say Mokaev’s striking is so much better than Durden’s because he out landed Durden 2 to 1. I had Mokaev with 65 grappling going into his UFC debut, I’ll keep him there. And based on where the line closed and what my eyes saw, I’m going to cautiously grade his striking and power 65s. Johnson is another one I don’t have a solid handle on. His last fight was a LFA main event against a well rounded 6-0 fighter. UFC caliber fight. Back and forth. And it’s hard because I just don’t know for sure how good Johnson’s opponent is. But when you see the UFC just sign a fighter and give them a full camp for their 1st fight, they’re usually really good. Most prospects join the UFC either via The Contender or The Ultimate Fighter or are signed to take a fight on short notice. So I have Johnson with well rounded 60 tools and I think there’s a very good chance he’s not better than that. Very rare fighters join the UFC with any 65 tools.
Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Mokaev -250
Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Herbert might have a yucky 1-3 UFC record, but he was thrown right into the deep end. The losses are to Ilia Topuria, Renato Moicano, and Francisco Trinadlo. No shame there. Despite getting knocked out by Topuria, Herbert did improve his wrestling to a 60. So he’s making progress there. Nelson also has a 1-3 UFC record, but his strength of schedule isn’t as strong. He’s still a good prospect with 60 wrestling, but Herbert’s striking is pretty close to a 70 and will be too much for Nelson.
Chris’ Pick: Herbert by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Herbert -450
Mandy Bohm vs Victoria Leonardo
- Mandy Bohm
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Victoria Leonardo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0-1 striker. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Leonardo vs Gatto is exactly why I watch almost every fighter’s previous fight. Why I don’t just look at the data. Because watching the fights can sometimes provide valuable context that’s npt in the numbers. Leonardo is an example of that. On the surface, you could think, okay, Leonardo lost her last fight to Melissa Gatto. And Gatto out struck Leonardo 63 to 38. That’s because Gatto is really good. And Gatto is good. We saw her knock out Sijara Eubanks. But that’s not what happened in the Leonardo fight. The 1st round, the striking was equal, 9 to 9. But then in the 2nd round, Leonardo broke her arm. And Gatto out strikes her 54 to 29. And after watching Gatto fight Tracy Cortez, it appears Gatto’s grappling is a 60. But Leonardo showed improved wrestling and I’m now grading it a 60. With Bohm, I’m tempted to grade her striking a 60. It’s close. I’m also not sure if her power is a 55 or not. It’s possible it could be a 45. We’ve only seen Bohm in one UFC fight and that was against Ariane Lipski who may or may not be much improved. Because most fights, fighters come in with generally the same tools they had last time. Every now and then a fighter shows up with improved skills, but most of the time, they show up close to the same. That said, I’ve been confident Lipski has had 55 wrestling. 65 grappler Montana de la Rosa just dominated her on the ground. It’s possible that Lipski improved her wrestling there, but it’s more likely that Bohm’s grappling is a 50. Besides, Bohm has this shiny 7-1 record, but 6 of her 7 wins are over tomato cans. Before Lipski, the toughest opponent she went against was a well rounded 3-0 fighter. So what I’m saying is I’m not too confident in where I’ve graded Bohm, but if Lipski could get the better of the grappling with Bohm, I’m pretty sure Leonardo will get enough take downs and control to pull off what could be a close win.
Chris’ Pick: Leonardo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Leonardo -175
Claudio Silva vs Nicolas Dalby
- Claudio Silva
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nordine Taleb and Danny Roberts. Split decision over Leon Edwards in 2014.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nicholas Dalby
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Oliveira. Split decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Turns out Court McGee is better than I thought. And that makes Silva not as bad. McGee’s wrestling being a 65 reaffirms Silva’s grappling hasn’t regressed below a 60, even at 39 years old. He takes on Dalby, who’s striking has gotten better but wrestling has stagnated over the years. Hasn’t developed as much as I thought it would. Tim Means has 60 wrestling and he out wrestled Dalby. Close fight here. I have them graded identical on the feet, but if Means was able to get some take downs, I expect Silva to be able to do so as well, with the possibility of him getting a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -175