Juliana Pena vs Amanda Nunes
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Amanda Nunes and Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Amanda Nunes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 14-2
- Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Megan Anderson and Miesha Tate. Beat Felicia Spencer and Valentina Shevchenko twice.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Anytime you have a fighter that’s as heavy of a favorite as Nunes was, and she was favored at -1000, the first question is what happened? Why was the result so much different than we all thought it was going to be? Was Pena always this good? Did something change with Nunes? Let’s look at the numbers. In the 1st round, The grappling went back and forth. Close to equal there. Nunes borderline getting the better of it. But then Pena made an adjustment and the 2nd round is when she unleashed the pressure and pace. Pena ended up out landing Pena 73 to 36 in the 2nd. And Nunes melted, she just didn’t have the cardio to keep up. I can’t speculate on how much Nunes trained because I have no idea. But the data is sufficient and tells the story. So now we have the rematch. You know fighters that win the first fight win the rematch about 72% of the time. Pena has even more confidence now. And who knows how much motivation Nunes has left? Is she going to train harder? Is she close to retirement? It’s been close to 8 months since they fought last and I just don’t see how Nunes improves her cardio enough to keep up with Pena over the course of 5 rounds. That was a much different Pena than we saw in her last fight before Nunes with Sara McMann. I’m comfortable in grading her striking a 75, albeit with 65 power. Avoiding Nunes power in the 1st round is the only real danger but if Pena can get past that again, she should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Pena by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Pena -200
Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara France
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-3-2
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Kai Kara France
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Askar Askarov and Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
On the surface, it might appear that Kara France has unlocked KO power. He has a little bit. I am grading his power a 65 after all, but it’s not on the same level of his striking. Look at the two guys he knocked out. Garbrandt, who cut down to 125 lbs for the first time and has struggled with his chin. And then the other KO was over a gassed out Bontorin. Those are his only two KOs in the UFC. I also have his striking graded as a 75, but it’s not my most confident grade. I had Askarov with 70 striking going into their fight and Kara France did out strike him. But Askarov dominated the 1st round. Had Kara France’s back while standing up for a good chunk of the round which can really drain the gas tank. That’s actually how Bontorin gassed out. Is it possible that Askarov couldn’t take Kara France down anymore and was behind in the striking because he was gassed? It’s possible. Moreno affirmed his 75 striking in the third Figueiredo fight. Edged Figueiredo out in the striking. And the numbers show Figueiredo with more control time, but then again Moreno only attempted 2 take downs. Got 1. Seemed like Moreno just wanted to fight on the feet so I have his grappling as a 75, but it could be a 70. I’m more confident in Moreno’s striking being a 75 so he should win on the feet. Maybe Kara France has more power, but it’s not on Figueiredo’s level. Moreno should have the ability to mix in some take downs, try to get a submission. He also has more experience training for and fighting in 5 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Moreno by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Moreno -150
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 17-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Maurice Greene.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Yes, Pavlovich’s KO over Abdurakhimov looks great. Pavlovich came into that fight a -350 favorite. He was supposed to win and did. Case closed, right? Well, not so fast. Look at the numbers in the fight. Actually shows Abdurakhimov out struck Pavlovich 17 to 6. Wow. I had Abdurakhimov with 65 striking going into the fight. So it looks like Pavlovich got lucky. Going into that fight, I think the market believed Pavlovich had the better striking, 70 striking, but they were wrong. I’m very confident Pavlovich’s striking is just a 65. And I think Lewis got unlucky too in the Tuivasa fight. He out landed Tuivasa 11 to 8 and has more power. But Tuivasa got the job done. I still think Lewis is the rare fighter in the UFC that has a bigger power grade than striking grade. I also think it’s possible Lewis tries to take Pavlovich down like he did with Tuivasa. But I’m picking Lewis because he has more power and if they trade, very likely Lewis picks up another KO.
Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lewis -200
Alex Perez vs Alexandre Pantoja
- Alex Perez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Brandon Royval and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I had thought Pantoja’s striking was just a 65 going into his fight with 70 striker Royval. But it turned out the striking was close to equal and once and for all Pantoja’s striking is indeed a 70. Perez has had less than 2 minutes of cage time in the last 2 years. Possible during that time he could have gotten better. His last fight you can look at where the fight went long enough to see where his tools are at was the Jussier Formiga fight. Perez was able to stuff Formiga’s take downs, out strike him, and knocked Formiga out with leg kicks. Coin flip fight. I have both graded almost identical, except Pantoja’s grappling is slightly better. I have to project to pick here and just think Perez will show up better than when we last saw him.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Perez -125
Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 205 lbs. 9-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The Ankalaev vs Oezdemir fight through me off. I still don’t know what happened there. Let’s look at Ankalaev’s last three fights. Krylov actually out struck Ankalaev, showing Ankalaev’s striking is only a 65 at that point. But then Ankalaev takes on Oezdemir, who I’m pretty sure has 70 striking and out strikes him. And I think wow, Ankalaev really worked on his striking and it’s jumped to a 75. But then Ankalaev took on 70 striker Santos and the striking was close to equal. And I know for sure Santos’ striking is only a 70. I mean, it’s possible Santos could have elevated the striking tool to a 75, but it’s more likely Ankalaev has 70 striking. But I do know Ankalaev has 75 wrestling with how he was able to take Santos down and control him for a bit. Smith has had quite the turnaround after getting dominated by Aleksandar Rakic. Getting taken down and controlled. But has his grappling improved beyond a 65? Maybe. He did submit a 60 wrestler in Clark, but Smith did it off his back. And he did submit Spann, but that was after Smith had knocked him down not once but twice. Spann was badly hurt. All 3 of Smith’s last fights have only gone one round. So who knows. But I grade off of what we have seen currently, what the numbers say and what has happened. I don’t bake projection into grading tools. That said, Ankalaev should have the wrestling to take Smith down and grind him out there, similar to what Rakic did. That is, unless Smith got better.
Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ankalaev -250
Alex Morono vs Matthew Semelsberger
- Alex Morono
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat AJ Fletcher and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Where I grade Semelsberger’s striking has a lot to do with how good Fletcher is. When they fought, the line closed with Semelsberger a 2 to 1 favorite over Fletcher. The market thought Semelsberger had a striking advantage, likely having 60 striking while Fletcher had 55 striking. Well, the striking turned out to be close to equal. So is Semelsberger’s striking not as good as the market thought or is Fletcher’s striking better than we all thought? I think it’s more likely to be the former as I had Semelsberger with 55 striking going into the fight. So Morono should win this fight. He’s the better striker with margin. Meaning even if Semelsberger’s striking is a 60, Morono should still win, but he just has to be wary of Semelsberger possibly having more power.
Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Morono -225
Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves
- Drew Dober
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rafael Alves
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 20-10
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-3 striker, a well rounded 36-15 fighter, and a 4-1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marc Diakiese, a 5-1 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 14-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Beat a 16-5 grappler and a 17-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Alves’ last fight with Diakiese didn’t last long. Not much data to take anything away from the fight. Diakiese has shown improved wrestling, but he’s not a grappler. Alves’ big move is his guillotine and Diakiese got caught in it. It’s just like knockouts, it happens sometimes. But we do know that Alves’ striking is a 60 with how he got out landed by 65 striker Damir Ismagulov, but it wasn’t a wipeout. And maybe Dober had 65 wrestling all along. I graded it a 60 based on how Islam Makhachev was able to take Dober down and control him. But I had Makhachev with 70 wrestling at the time. Maybe it was a 75 even back then. Either way, I know McKinney has 70 wrestling. He showed it off taking down and controlling 60 wrestler Fares Ziam. So McKinney took Dober down and Dober was able to get back up showing his wrestling is indeed a 65. And looking back on Dober’s fight with Riddell, it’s even possible Dober’s striking is closer to a 70. Alves is a solid fighter and he’s not terrible. But this is the easiest matchup Dober has had in awhile and think he’s going to look good with two legit paths to win.
Chris’ Pick: Dober by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dober -500
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Don’Tale Mayes
- Hamdy Abdelwahab
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Mayes showed off new and improved 60 wrestling in his last fight with 50 wrestler Parisian, taking him down and controlling him most of the fight. Mayes was supposed to fight Justin Tafa, but he pulls out. In comes a short notice replacement on two weeks notice. And it turns out Abdelwahab is not a typical short notice replacement. Abdelwahab is an Olympic wrestler and his signing to the UFC got a lot of hype, so it’s interesting to see the UFC plug him in here on two weeks notice. I watched him take on a well rounded 6-3 fighter, someone who I thought had 50 tools across the board. At the time, Abdelwahab had a 2-0 record. And Hamdy made it look like his opponent was an amateur and didn’t belong there. Defensively, there’s some work for Abdelwahab to do, he got hit with some shots, but his athleticism makes his striking a 60. And he was able to take the guy down any time he wanted and maintain control. 65 wrestling and it’s going to be a problem for most of the division. So this is going to be a very interesting fight with Mayes improving his wrestling to a 60. I think we’re going to see Hamdy going for take downs early and often, Mayes getting back up, and getting taken back down and Abdelwahab will prove to have the better cardio to edge Mayes out.
Chris’ Pick: Abdelwahab by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Abdelwahab -150
Rafa Garcia vs Drakkar Klose
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Drakkar Klose
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Beat Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Garcia came into the Ronson fight as an underdog. But he leveled up. Striking was close to equal with 60 striker Ronson. And Garcia’s grappling started to take over in the 2nd round, before getting the submission. Klose’s loss to Beneil Dariush keeps improving with age with the type of run Dariush is on. Klose had Dariush hurt and almost knocked him out. And Klose also took care of business knocking out Brandon Jenkins in his last fight. Klose was supposed to take on Diego Ferreira, but this is a great consolation as I have both graded equally. I’m going to have to use projection to pick here and I’m going with Klose because I think his striking is kloser to a 65 and his wrestling is kloser to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Klose by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Klose -125
Michael Morales vs Adam Fugitt
- Michael Morales
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Trevin Giles. Beat a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Adam Fugitt
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I’m very confident I had Giles graded correctly with 55 tools. I’ve seen him fight now a bunch of times. His fight with Morales closed as a pick em. Which I was okay with, but I thought Morales should’ve been a favorite at -150 due to having better wrestling. Well, we didn’t see much of the wrestling because the fight didn’t last that long. KO by Morales. But looking at the distance striking totals, the striking was close to equal. So I’m keeping Morales’ striking as a 55 despite looking like the better striker against Giles. Morales was supposed to take on Ramiz Brahimaj, but he pulls out. In steps Fugitt on a week’s notice. And he’s an interesting fighter. I watched him fight in Hawaii back in 2019 and I graded him with average 50 tools across the board. Then he goes two and a half years with no fights. Says it was a lot of cancellations. He returns against Contender Series alum Solomon Renfro in LFA and the betting line closes with Renfro at -500. But Fugitt knocks him out in less than 2 minutes! I had Renfro with 55 striking and the striking in the fight looked equal up until the KO, albeit with a very small sample. So I’ve cautiously upgrading him to 55 striking, power, and wrestling. I think he’s leveled up since I last saw him in 2019. Morales will probably be a big favorite here, but Fugitt could be a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Morales by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Morales -175
Joselyne Edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Ji Yeon Kim
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Kim was really impressive in her last fight with Cachoeira. I thought the striking would be close, but instead Kim elevated her striking to a 65 and really close to a 70, but not quite there yet. Edwards had the best performance of her career against Pascual. I’m decently confident that Pascual’s striking is a 55. But maybe it’s not. Check this out. Edwards out struck Pascual 152 to 44. That’s more than 3 to 1. Landslide. So Edwards striking is now a 65 and might be getting close to a 70. And if that wasn’t enough, Edwards also showed improved wrestling by stuffing Pascual’s take downs. One of my least confident picks. I have both graded identical. I’m going to give Kim a slight edge because I already thought her cardio is a little better, but that could be an even bigger difference maker with Edwards taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice.
Chris’ Pick: Kim by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: pick em
Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ihor Potieria
- Nicolae Negumereanu
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Kennedy Nzechukwu and Aleksa Camur.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 19-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Turns out Potieria can fight. Going into the Contender, it seemed like he had a padded 18-2 pro record. Every single one of his wins was over a tomato can. He was getting a gigantic step up in competition, going against an 8-0 striker. Line closed with Potieria’s opponent a -300 favorite and I had the opponent graded with 60 striking and power to go along with 55 wrestling. But the striking and wrestling turned out to be equal and Potieria landed a power shot in the 1st round that ended the fight. Negumereanu went into his fight with Nzechukwu as a near pick em. I wasn’t buying it. I thought Nzechukwu had 60 striking, better than Negumereanu’s 55 striking. And that turned out to be the case. Wrestling was close to equal. And Nzechukwu out struck him. And I have no idea how 2 of the judges scored the fight for Negumereanu. In either case, we have the same thing here. Potieria with better, 60 grade striking. Only question is what does Potieria’s cardio look like if he can’t get Negumereanu out quickly. On the other hand though, it is possible Potieria has 65 striking and could dominate here.
Chris’ Pick: Potieria by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Potieria -200
Orion Cosce vs Blood Diamond
- Orion Cosce
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Blood Diamond
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 3-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Very curious matchup here for Diamond. It’s almost as if he told his team after losing his UFC debut, “give me another wrestler, that’ll never happen again”. I don’t think this is good for him though. Jeremiah Wells was able to take Diamond down with not much effort. I have his wrestling graded as a 60 and same with Cosce. 60 wrestling. Diamond fought Wells just this past February. That’s a 4 month gap. Is he really going to be that much better in wrestling after 4 months? Maybe. Probably not though. Cosce has had almost a year long layoff, coming off getting knocked out by Phil Rowe. But I think Cosce lost that fight due to mismanaging his gas tank. He tried to force the take downs and wrestling too much. Really emptied the gas tank in the 1st round. I wonder how he would have done on the feet had he not gassed out. But either way, I see this as a repeat of the Wells vs Diamond fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cosce by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Cosce -225