MacKenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marina Rodriguez.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The Yan vs Rodriguez fight went about as I expected. Striking was really close, at least in the first 2 rounds. Rodriguez showed better cardio taking over in the 3rd round, but what surprised me about Yan is she did get a couple take downs on 65 wrestler Rodriguez. And Marina got right back up, but at least Yan showed that she’s leveled up her wrestling to a 65. Dern has really, really improved her striking. I remember when she came into the UFC, she was so raw, she threw hard, not much technique. Then in her last fight, Torres out struck her, but it wasn’t a blowout. I was impressed enough to upgrade the tool to a 65. Her grappling still hasn’t taken the leap to a 75 grade due to her not being efficient in utilizing it. Not having the cardio to use it all fight. That’s my biggest gripe. It’s like she can go all in for a submission once or twice in the fight and after that, she’s out of gas. Looks great when she gets the tap like with Nina Nunes, but when she doesn’t, you have her losing to Marina Rodriguez and squeaking out a split decision win over Torres. Just like with strikers, she needs to be smarter in picking her spots to use energy. Her approach of going all in works on lower level fighters, but not the top #10 in the UFC. And this fight with Yan is a great challenge because of how Yan’s wrestling is now a 65. Yan is very similar to Torres. Could be a close fight, but I’m picking Dern because I’m projecting improvement from Dern in utilizing her grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dern -135
Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo
- Randy Brown
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Francisco Trinaldo
- Age: 44
- UFC Record: 18-7
- Key Losses: Lost to James Vick.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert, Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat Danny Roberts, John Makdessi, and Bobby Green. Split decision over Dwight Grant.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Trinaldo’s last fight was his superior striking technique vs Roberts’ having more power. Roberts didn’t get the KO and as expected Trinaldo out landed 55 striker Roberts enough to win the fight. Trinaldo tried a take down attempt, didn’t get it, both have 60 wrestling. Brown went 0 for 4 on taking down 60 wrestler Williams. So I’m confident Brown’s grappling is a 60. And the fight on the feet with 65 striker Williams was just as close as I thought with Brown landing more shots 74 to 68. I really like Brown here. He’s got a monster power advantage. But Trinaldo is durable, so he just has to make sure he doesn’t gas out going for the finish.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brown -325
Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Khalid Taha and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Trevin Jones
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mario Bautista, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I thought Jones would be able to beat Javid Basharat, thought Jones had the better striking. The market disagreed with me and the market was right. Basharat ended up having 55 striking and the whole fight was close, with Basharat edging out a win. And I’ve seen way too many Barcelos fights to think his skills have all of a sudden regressed, despite losing to short notice opponent Victor Henry. I think Barcelos losing had a lot to do with Barcelos not respecting his opponent, but also Henry being really legit with border line 70 striking. This fight is a bit lopsided in my opinion. Barcelos should have a big edge in the stand up. I really don’t see any path of victory for Jones.
Chris’ Pick: Barcelos by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Barcelos -400
Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis
- Sodiq Yusuff
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Beat Alex Caceres, Andre Fili, and Mike Davis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
- Don Shainis
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Once and for all, Yusuff’s striking is a 65. I thought that could be the case after his close win over Fili. But I know with 100% certainly that Caceres has not upgraded his striking to a 70 grade. And look at that fight. Cacers actually out landed Yusuff 64 to 59. Close to equal. But I have to grade Yusuff’s striking a 65 now. But Yusuff’s 60 wrestling was reaffirmed. In Shainis’ last fight, he took on a 7-6 striker that I thought had 45 striking and 45 wrestling. And the striking might be closer to a 50 with how much he landed on Shainis. It was back and forth on the feet. But all Shainis needed was one take down to eventually end the fight. I also watched Shainis’ second to last fight with a 16-8 grappler with 50 grappling. Same story. Shainis got the take down and it was over a couple of minutes later. So Shainis’ wrestling tool is a 60 for me. Unfortunately for him, that’s not going to be enough to get Yusuff down.
Chris’ Pick: Yusuff by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Yusuff -500
John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos
- John Castaneda
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 19-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Miles Johns. Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Daniel Santos
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Most of the fight between Castaneda and 60 striker Johns was on the feet. I picked Castaneda to win, and he did win, but I thought Castaneda had better striking going into it. Turns out the striking was close to equal. But I think that has more to do with Johns elevating his striking to a 65. My belief in Castaneda’s striking being a 65 comes from his fight with Wineland last year and that there’s no way Wineland’s striking is less than a 55 and Castaneda out landed him by a 2 to 1 clip. When Santos made his UFC debut, the line closed with his opponent Julio Arce as only a -190 favorite. Which means the market thought Santos had 60 striking. But Arce out landed Santos by more than a 2 to 1 clip, which means Santos’ striking is a 55. The wrestling did look equal though. But unfortunately for Santos, I see Castaneda having the same grade of striking Arce has and this fight should be very similar.
Chris’ Pick: Castaneda by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Castaneda -300
Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev
- Mike Davis
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Mason Jones.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Viacheslav Borshchev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Yes, Medic’s knockout over Omar Morales looked spectacular. Striking was close to equal. But the difference was Medic had way more power. Davis returns and unfortunately has only fought once in the past 3 years. But that one fight he did have was a very impressive win over rising contender Jones. Fight was equal in every way between the striking and wrestling. I was curious to see how Borshchev’s striking would hold up against Marc Diakiese, but unfortunately we never really got to see that as 60 wrestler Diakiese was able to take Borshchev down over and over again. So Borshchev’s wrestling is clearly still a 50. And now he gets thrown in with another guy that has 60 wrestling in Davis, except this time, Borshchev is taking the fight on 2 weeks notice. Has Borshchev’s wrestling really gotten that much better in the past 6 months. It’s possible but not likely. And even if Borshchev is able to get back up, it’s likely that Davis also has better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Davis by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Davis -325
Ilir Latifi vs Alexei Oleinik
- Ilir Latifi
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Ovince St Preux. Beat Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Aleksei Oleinik
- Age: 45
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Wins: Submitted Jared Vanderaa, Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Oleinik’s 65 grade grappling is still going strong. Once again the market doubted him, had Vanderaa as a -125 favorite. But Vanderaa has 55 wrestling, somehow got Oleinik’s back on the ground and thought it’d be a good idea to grapple him. Oleinik was soon able to reverse and got the submission in under 2 minutes. And I’m pretty sure Vanderaa has 65 striking. Fight wasn’t on the feet for long, but when it was Oleinik out struck him 8 to 7. But I’m going to keep Oleinik’s striking at 60 for now. Not sure there’s much runway for development at 45 years old. Latifi has been fighting once a year since 2019, so it’s harder to grade him when he’s not that active. Last time out, 70 striker Tanner Boser out landed him 28 to 10, thus making me grade Latifi’s striking a 60. And I’m decently sure Latifi’s wrestling is a 65. He got some take downs on Boser, was able to control for a little bit. He was took Derrick Lewis down and few times too, but I think that was back when Lewis’ wrestling was a 60. Either way, I see Latifi being able to stuff Oleinik’s take down attempts and should be strong enough to shake Oleinik off if he pulls guard. Latifi has a lot more power and I see him getting the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Latifi by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Latifi -150
Jessica Penne vs Tabatha Ricci
- Jessica Penne
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decisions over Lupita Godinez and Randa Markos
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I had confidence in Penne’s grappling being a 65 as her grappling with rising contender Godinez was close to equal. But I think she started to take a step back in her last fight with Emily Ducote. Yes, I think Ducote is really good. But Penne went 0 for 8 in take down attempts. Does Ducote have 65 wrestling? Maybe. But Ducote also out landed Penne by a 2 to 1 clip on the feet. Does Ducote have 70 striking? I doubt it. Most likely, at 39 years of age, Penne looks to be regressing. Ricci showed great cardio and durability in her win over Viana. I thought the fight would be closer, but Ricci had the cardio to take Viana down over and over again whenever she’d get back up. Shots landed with 55 striker Viana were close to equal. Should be a really close stand up fight. I like Ricci because she’s 12 years younger and I see her pushing the pace, tiring Penne out.
Chris’ Pick: Penne by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ricci -125
Joaquim Silva vs Jesse Ronson
- Joaquim SIlva
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Gordon.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jesse Ronson
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 21-11
- UFC Record: 0-4 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Split decision win over a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The line closed with Ronson as a -135 favorite over Rafa Garcia but that’s probably because the market didn’t realize Garcia has 65 wrestling and the cardio to utilize it all fight. Ronson lost because of that, but the striking was close to equal when the fight was on the feet. Silva has had only 37 seconds of cage time in the last 3 years. That’s how long his last fight with Ricky Glenn went, getting knocked out. Not much to pull out of that. Before that, he got knocked out by 60 striker Nasrat Haqparast but at least we have some numbers in that fight to go off of. Stand up fight, striking was close to equal. I have both guys graded identical. But the reason I’m picking Ronson is that it’s tough for strikers to come back when they’ve been knocked out in multiple fights in a row.
Chris’ Pick: Ronson by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ronson -125
Brendan Allen vs Krzystof Jotko
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Krzysztof Jotko
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Magnus Cedenblad. Split decision loss to David Branch.
- Key Wins: Beat Gerald Meerschaert, Thales Leites, and Eryk Anders. Split decisions over Misha Cirkunov and Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus wrestling (65)
The wrestling with Allen and Malkoun went back and forth with Malkoun getting the better of it, slightly. His wrestling could be as high as a 70 because I’ve seen enough of Allen to know his grappling is a 65. Striking ended up being way closer than I thought, but again, it had to do with Malkoun being better than I thought. Allen was lucky to get the judges nod because I thought Malkoun won the fight. Jotko;s fight with 60 striker Meerschaert went as expected. Jotko won because he had the better striking. I expect this to be a really close fight, total coin flip, but I’m going with Allen with there’s a better chance he shows up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Allen -125
Philipe Lins vs Maxim Grishin
- Philipe Lins
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Beat Marcin Prachnio.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Maxim Grishin
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 32-9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 205 lbs. 2-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
- Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Looking at Grishin’s resume, you wouldn’t think he’s a bit one dimensional with the striking, but that is the case. I know Knight’s wrestling isn’t better than a 60. And yet he was able to take Grishin down 3 times, got some control time. Grishin was able to keep Knight pinned in the clinch for a bit, which is why I have Grishin’s wrestling as a 60, but it’s definitely not a 65. The striking tool for Grishin is for sure a 70. He out struck Knight 62 to 16 in the fight, with the numbers so lopsided because Knight’s cardio collapsed after the mid way point. The Lins vs Prachnio fight went about as I expected. Striking was very close to equal. But Lins won the fight by repeatedly taking 60 wrestler Prachnio down. Lins has more power, but Grishin is slick, I think will stay at range, and should win the fight on points.
Chris’ Pick: Grishin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Grishin -150
Julija Stoliarenko vs Chelsea Chandler
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-6-2
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Chelsea Chandler
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chandler’s last fight was against a well rounded 4-2 fighter that I think has 55 tools. Chandler came out and showed (1), her wrestling is a 60, being able to get the better of it. And 2) she has the cardio to use it all fight. When they were trading strikes on the feet, it was about equal. And it is possible that Chandler’s wrestling is as high as a 65, but I think 60 is the right grade for now. Despite Stoliarenko’s 1-4 record in the UFC, she’s been really improving. And she’s coming off her first UFC win, submitting Clark in less than a minute. I think Chandler is a quality prospect, but Stoliarenko is way more advanced on the feet. Even if Chandler comes in with 65 wrestling, which is rare, it won’t matter, she won’t be able to take down and control Stoliarenko on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Stoliarenko by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stoliarenko -400
Guido Cannetti vs Randy Costa
- Guido Cannetti
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Enrique Briones. Split decision loss to Leomana Martinez.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Randy Costa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Journey Newsom and a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Looking back at Cannetti’s last fight with Kris Moutinho, it’s hard to figure out what to make of their skills. Because I wasn’t sure if Moutinho’s striking was a 50 or 55. And I wasn’t sure if Cannetti’s is a 55 or 60. In the fight, Cannetti out struck Moutinho by a bit then knocked him out. So to best figure out where Cannett’s tools are at, I looked up his next to last fight again with Leomana Martinez, where Martinez has fought in the UFC long enough for me to know he has well rounded 55 tools. Martinez got a couple take downs but Cannetti was able to almost immediately get back up, showing Cannetti’s wrestling is a 55. And striking was close to equal. If you judge what Costa does in the 1st round, he looks like a potential contender. He especially showed that in his fight with Adrian Yanez. But his cardio is not great and he hasn’t done well in managing his gas tank. He gets too aggressive going for finishes in the 1st round and gasses out. In the Tony Kelley fight. He looked like he had 55 wrestling in the 1st round. Resisted Kelley’s wrestling. But by the 2nd round, he was out of gas and Kelley took over. So Costa’s lack of cardio and fight IQ make this an unpredictable fight. On paper, Costa should win. But Cannetti does have a path to win. He has better cardio, is durable. Could take Costa down and tire him out. I’m going to pick Costa, but it could go either way.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Costa -150