Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus plus (80)
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway thrice, and Jose Aldo.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
So after rewatching Volkanovski vs Holloway 3, in my opinion, the fight wasn’t as big a blowout as the commentators were making it out to be. Yeah, Volkanovski clearly won the fight. And on a round by round basis, Volkanovski landed more strikes, but it wasn’t a wipeout. Once and for all, Volkanovski proved he has top of the scale 80 grade striking. But that’s at featherweight. Historically when fighters move up in weight, most of the time, their tools translate a tick behind what they normally show. I’m projecting here, but it’s based on historical precedent of other championship level fighters who move up. It’s not that I’ve been skeptical of Makhachev. It’s just there’s always been a bunch of caveats with his wins going into the title fight. Ran over Green, but Green took the fight on less than a week’s notice. Ran over Hooker, but Hooker was 30 days removed from a 3 round fight. But I knew we’d find out for sure how good Makhachev was against Oliveira. And the most surprising thing about the fight is if you look at the striking numbers, Makhachev actually out struck Oliveira, 21 to 10. Incredible. Small sample. Not a big enough sample for me to grade his striking an 80. But I have no choice but to grade his striking tool as a 75, albeit with 65 power. And it wasn’t Makhachev’s grappling that won the fight, it was him knocking Oliveira down. This is as good a matchup that we’re going to get in the sport. Probably the top two pound for pound best fighters. It’s possible Volkanovski bulks up enough, is big enough for his wrestling to be a 75, and if that’s the case, we might have a fight. But the most likely scenario playing out is Makhachev being too big, taking Volkanovski down, winning the fight on the ground
Chris’ Pick: Makhachev by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Makhachev -200
Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett
- Yair Rodriguez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Andre Fili. Beat Jeremy Stephens. Split decision over Alex Caceres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-1 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. Split decision over Calvin Kattar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Emmett’s striking is really close to a 75. And I’ll admit it. I’m not sure it’s a 70 either. It’s kind of in the middle based on my methodology. His last fight with Kattar was really close. But if I absolutely had to put a number on his striking, the most plausible answer is that it’s a 70 for now. I know now that I was under rating Rodriguez going into his fight with Brian Ortega. It showed up in the fight. As long as the fight lasted, Rodriguez landed more, 21 to 15, putting any doubt to rest that he has 75 striking. And based off learning Max Holloway has 75 wrestling, that that’s the reason he was able to take Rodriguez down. And the fact that Ortega couldn’t take Rodriguez down with his 70 grappling, that Rodriguez’s wrestling is a 70. Rodriguez isn’t a lock to win here. Emmett has big power and could get the KO. But a puncher’s chance is really all he has. I see Rodriguez out striking him and Yair being able to stuff any take down attempts.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -225
Jack Della Maddalena vs Randy Brown
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Randy Brown
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Francisco Trinaldo and Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Roberts has decent 55 striking. He’s not a novice. He has a winning record in the UFC. And yet, Della Maddalena came in and out struck him 27 to 4. Unbelievable. That’s as close to a shutout as it gets. When most see Della Maddalena, they see the KO’s and power. But the numbers say he’s extraordinary defensively. Very hard to hit. Brown is a successful UFC vet and has an upward trajectory himself, but Della Maddalena’s striking is a tier above him.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Della Maddalena -275
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-3
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Parker Porter
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat Alan Baudot, Chase Sherman, and Josh Parisian.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
No shame in Porter losing his last fight to Jailton Almeida, as Almeida looks to have the upside as a possible champion. Tafa hasn’t fought in over a year, coming off a KO win over Harry Hunsucker, who’s really a light heavyweight. Not much to take from that being the fight was over in less than 2 minutes. Tafa’s loss to Jared Vanderaa is a better sample to grade his skills. But Tafa is young for a heavyweight and there’s a decent chance he shows up improved. Porter will probably land more, but power is such a big deal at heavyweight that Tafa probably won’t let him get to the judges score cards.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tafa -125
Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Menifield might have improved in his past couple fights, but I can’t upgrade his tools because his last fight with Cirkunov only lasted a minute. And the fight before that was with a 15-13 journeyman. So I rewatched Menifield’s fight with William Knight. Which is helpful because I now have a better grip on how good Knight is. And it’s possible Menifield has 65 striking, but based on the numbers, I’m changing the striking grade to a 60. But Menifield’s 60 wrestling was reaffirmed. Crute is an elite prospect, coming off two losses in a row. And I’m not super confident in where I’m grading him. The striking could be a 65, but I have it as a 70, because I do think Bukauskas has 65 striking. But I will acknowledge that 70 striker Anthony Smith did land more in the 1 round they fought. But it was just 1 round. And based on how Crute was able to take Smith down, I think Crute has 70 wrestling, but it could be a 65. Either way, this Menifield matchup is a soft landing for Crute. Look for Crute to take the path of least resistance. Taking Menifield down and tiring him out.
Chris’ Pick: Crute by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Crute -275
Tyson Pedro vs Modestas Bukauskas
- Tyson Pedro
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Khalil Rountree. Knocked out Harry Hunsucker and Paul Craig.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m not confident in where I’ve graded Pedro. Sure, two 1st round KO’s in a row look nice, but one was over Villanueva and the other with Hunsucker only lasted a minute. And that was Hunsucker’s first fight at 205 lbs, so not much of a sample size on what he can do. I was fairly convinced that Bukauskas had 65 striking going into his Rountree fight. He was coming off a very close split decision loss to Oleksiejczuk. Striking in that fight was close to equal. Then Rountree out struck Bukauskas 28 to 17 in the 1st round. And got Bukauskas out with leg kicks shortly into the 3rd round. I’ve graded Rountree’s striking as a 65 and he is known as a fast starter. Would he been able to put that type of pace on Bukauskas for all 3 rounds? Maybe. I’m going to leave Bukauskas’ striking a 65 for now, but it could be a 60. Now, I expect Pedro to be a big favorite. He’s looked great. And Bukauskas had that brutal leg injury. Got let go by the UFC. And now he returns on a few weeks notice. But I’m here to tell you Bukauskas is a live underdog and I still have just as many questions about Pedro as I do Bukauskas. This is actually close to a coin flip fight.
Chris’ Pick: Pedro by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pedro -125
Josh Culibao vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
- Josh Culibao
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1-1
- UFC Record: 2-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Charles Jourdain to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker. Split decision over Seung Woo Choi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Melsik Baghdasaryan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin. Beat Bruno Souza and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Baghdasaryan proved his 65 striking is legit in landing more shots than 60 striker Souza. He was also able to stuff 4 take down attempts from 60 wrestler Souza. Culibao did show 65 striking against Choi in a really close fight. Coin flip here. I give a slight edge to Baghdasaryan as I think his striking is closer to a 70, might have more power, and might mix some take downs in.
Chris’ Pick: Baghdasaryan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Baghdasaryan -150
Kleydson Rodrigues vs Shannon Ross
- Kleydson Rodrigues
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to CJ Vergara.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Shannon Ross
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Ashkan Mokhtarian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little average (55)
I thought Rodrigues beat 60 striker CJ Vegara. Close fight though. And likely close because Rodrigues had an adrenaline dump in the 1st round. Rodrigues landed enough shots for me to think he retains his 65 striking grade. And his wrestling turned out to be better than I thought and I’ve elevated that tool to a 60. Despite the KO loss and being in trouble most of the fight, Ross didn’t do that bad in his Contender fight with Vinicius Salvador. So well, that the UFC signed him, despite losing. But unfortunately for Ross, he’s matched up with someone even better than Salvador.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -400
Jamie Mullarkey vs Francisco Prado
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over Michael Johnson
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Francisco Prado
- Age: 20
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 9-3 striker, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I saw Prado last year. Very confident in saying he had 55 tools then. He won, but it was a back and forth fight. Later in the year, I watched him again and his grappling definitely improved. At worst, his opponent had 45 wrestling and Prado took him down and passed guard with ease. So the grappling is a 60 for me. It’s possible his striking improved to a 60, but the sample size is too small. He’s very wild and his last two fights both lasted less than 3 minutes as he just blitzed his opponents. Johnson’s win over Marc Diakiese this past December shows that his comeback is for real and the close split decision win Mullarkey had over him had more to do with Johnson bouncing back. I really like Mullarkey here. I’m very sure Mullarkey has 65 striking and the odds of Prado stepping into the UFC with 65 striking at only 20 years old is very, very unlikely. And it could be tempting to question Mullarkey’s chin, but ultimately, Mullarkey has only been knocked out once in the last seven years. As long as he survives the early storm, I see Prado getting tired and Mullarkey cruising.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mullarkey -300
Jack Jenkins vs Don Shainis
- Jack Jenkins
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Don Shainis
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ok, so, Jenkins has way better wrestling than I thought as he dominated a well rounded fighter to had 55 tools on the Contender. Jenkins didn’t strike much in that fight, but I’ve seen it enough outside the UFC to confidently grade it a 60, with the possibility of it being even better. There’s a slight chance Shainis’ striking could be a 55, but even if it is, it’s not at a high enough level to out duel Jenkins on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jenkins -400
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Junior Tafa
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 9-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Bit of projection baked in to where I have Tafa’s tools graded. Because he’s fought very soft competition so far. His best opponent was a 4-3 grappler that I thought had 50 grappling. Tafa got taken down early, but was able to get back up and knock the guy out shortly after that. When I saw Cortes-Acosta close as a -240 favorite, I scoffed. I was pretty convinced Sherman’s striking was a 65 and at worst, this would be a coin flip fight. But instead, to my shock, Cortes-Acosta out classed Sherman. To the tune of Cortes-Acosta out landing him 142 to 66. So not only is it likely Sherman’s striking may be closer to a 60, but Cortes-Acosta showed up better than the market thought. So much so that I’m now grading his striking as a 70. Now, I got to give Tafa credit. When he was first booked for this card, he was matched up with fellow prospect Austen Lane. A winnable fight for Tafa. But Lane has to pull out and instead Tafa takes on Cortes-Acosta. That’s a very, very difficult way to make a UFC debut. The odds of Tafa showing up with 70 striking, much less 65 striking is slim, much like his chances in this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cortes-Acosta -600
Loma Lookboonmee vs Elise Reed
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Denise Gomes, Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Elise Reed
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Lookboonmee closed as a -200 favorite because the market thought she was the better striker. I disagreed, as I have Gomes striking a 60, thought Gomes should’ve been a -125 favorite. And for the record, I was right as Lookboonmee only landed one more shot, 14 to 13. But we didn’t get the kickboxing fight we thought we’d get. Instead, the women decided to grapple the whole time, each probably thinking they had the better cardio and the other would wear down. But the cardio for both held up and it resulted in a really close win for Lookboonmee. Martinez closed as a -170 favorite against Reed, mostly due to hype in my opinion. I thought it was going to be close and it was. I had the fight scored 1 round a piece, very even, and Reed pulled away in the 3rd round because she had the better cardio. Martinez did land more, 37 to 20, but I’m comfortable keeping Reed’s striking as a 60. Both Reed and Lookboonmee are evenly matched and I think Reed having more power and doing more damage should give her enough of an edge to win a close decision.
Chris’ Pick: Reed by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Reed -135
Shane Young vs Blake Bilder
- Shane Young
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 16-5 fighter. Split decision over a 20-6 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Blake Bilder
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I wasn’t the only one who thought Alex Morgan would beat Bilder as Morgan closed as a -195 favorite. There was a consensus that Bilder was an average prospect, based on how he fought outside the UFC. But Bilder showed up improved, striking was close to equal before he tagged his opponent, took his back, got the choke with him still dazed. I rewatched Young’s last fight against Omar Morales. Young lost, was out struck, but his wrestling was a bit better than I thought and I bumped the tool up to a 55. Bilder seems to be a similar opponent to Morales, except he has better grappling. Bilder has two legit paths to win, should land more strikes, and it’s possible he catches Young in a submission. But this fight could still be close as Young hasn’t fought in almost two years and should show up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Bilder by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bilder -135
Elves Brenner Oliveira vs Zubaira Tukhugov
- Elves Brenner Oliveira
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-3
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a 5-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Zubaira Tukhugov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Lerone Murphy to a draw.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Hakeem Dawodu and Renato Moicano.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Aguilar. Beat Ricardo Raomos and Douglas Silva de Andrade.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Tukhugov is coming off a hard earned win over 65 striker Ramos. Striking was close to equal but the difference was Tukhugov having more power. We haven’t seen Tukhugov’s 65 wrestling in awhile, but he does still have it. Oliveira is coming off two quick 1st round arm bar submission wins, but they were against low quality competition. The best gauge of where his skills are at is his third to last fight against a well rounded 9-0 fighter who I think has 55 tools. Fight went back and forth. Oliveira got the better of the grappling but his opponent landed more strikes. It’s a really way for Oliveira to make a debut. I don’t see a path to victory for him.
Chris’ Pick: Tukhugov by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tukhugov -600