Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Molly McCann and JJ Aldrich. Beat Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Blanchfield did what she was expected to do to McCann. It wasn’t competitive. Andrade’s last fight with Murphy wasn’t competitive either. Which really surprised me. I actually thought Murphy would use her wrestling the same way Valentina Shevchenko did, to beat Andrade. But what happened is Andrade showed up with improved skills. I know Shevchenko doesn’t have crazy 80 or even 75 wrestling. It’s a 70 tool. We saw that by how Taila Santos was able to take Shevchenko down repeatedly. And yet Shevchenko was able to take Andrade down multiple times and finished her there. Murphy has legit 70 wrestling and she went 0 for 15 on take down attempts against Andrade. And Andrade’s striking got better too, out landed Murphy 208 to 90. Craziness. 75 grade striking for me now. So this is a really, really interesting fight. Normally I’d pick Andrade, that the fight would be on the feet long enough for Andrade to catch Blanchfield, who has zero experience fighting anyone remotely close to the type of power Andrade has. But the wrinkle here is that Andrade is taking this fight on 7 days notice. There’s no way her cardio is at tip top shape. This is a 5 round fight. And Blanchfield does have the ability to get some take downs. Because of the circumstances, I think Blanchfield takes Andrade down repeatedly, tires her out, and finishes Andrade late.
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by 4th round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Blanchfield -135
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Zac Pauga
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Markus Perez, a 5-2 wrestler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
That was one of the weirder fights I’ve seen in awhile, Pauga’s last one with Mohammed Usman. Pauga out struck Usman 30 to 8 in the 1st round. But then 36 seconds into the 2nd, Usman knocks him out. Pauga is now moving down to 205 lbs, so maybe the heavyweight power was too much. I’m not entirely sure. Either way, my grades of Pauga’s tools are shaky because I haven’t seen much of him and now he’s moving to a new weight class. Dusko Todorovic closed as a -205 favorite over Wright, likely because the market, and myself included, thought Todorovic would be able to take Wright down. Now, Todorovic has 65 wrestling. I’m confident in that. And to the surprise of everybody, it was Wright landing 3 take downs in the 1st round. But could he keep that up over 3 rounds? The answer was no as Wright was out of gas towards the beginning of the 2nd round. What makes grading Wright’s wrestling even murkier is the fact that he’s moving up to 205 lbs, but I think the most plausible grade of that tool is a 60. This isn’t my most confident pick, but I think Wright keeps the fight standing up long enough to knock Pauga out.
Chris’ Pick: Wright by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Wright -175
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked Alan Baudot, out a 6-1 striker, and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jamal Pogues
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Beat a 10-1 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, an 11-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Let’s not get it twisted here. Parisian knocked Baudot out because Baudot gassed out towards the end of the 1st round. Parisian was knocked down. He was in trouble. Baudot went for the finish. Didn’t get it. But. I does look like the market was right. I had Baudot with 65 striking and Parisian with 55 striking. And strikes in the 1st round turned out to be close to equal, so both likely have 60 grade striking, which is in line with how the line closed as a near pick em. I also noticed Parisian’s wrestling did improve a tick to a 55. Pogues opened as a -190 favorite over Paulo Renato Jr. Closed as a -345. Because the market was confident Pogues had 60 wrestling and would be able to win with take downs. But instead, Pogues went 0 for 2 taking Renato Jr down and the fight stayed on the feet the whole time. Which means Renato Jr’s wrestling is probably a 55 instead of a 50. And Pogues’ wrestling is likely a 55. Striking was close to equal. This is a nightmare matchup for Pogues as heavyweight is not the division where you want to lack power.
Chris’ Pick: Parisian by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Parisian -275
William Knight vs Marcin Prachnio
- William Knight
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Fabio Cherant and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Alonzo Menifield and Aleksa Camur.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat Khalil Rountree.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Knight is very unpredictable and hard to grade because of his lack of cardio. He’s explosive in the 1st round and looks unbelievable. But if he doesn’t get the finish, he fades in the second half of the fight. That’s what happened last time out with Devin Clark. Went all in on the finish in the 1st round. Didn’t get it. Ran out of gas in the 3rd round, got knocked out. The line closed as a pick em for Prachnio vs Philipe Lins. I thought Lins would have the better wrestling and that he could grind for a win and that’s exactly what he did. Striking was close to equal. Like I said earlier, Knight fights are really unpredictable, but I’m pretty confident now with where I’ve graded him. I don’t think he’ll be able to take Prachnio down outside the first couple minutes of the fight. And Prachnio should be able to land more.
Chris’ Pick: Prachnio by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Prachnio -175
Jim Miller vs Alexander Hernandez
- Jim Miller
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 24-15
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Donald Cerrone, Roosevelt Roberts, and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m really not sure what happened in the Miller vs Cerrone fight. Yes, Miller got the sub, but the striking was way closer than I thought it would be. And Cerrone did land more strikes 34 to 25. Not a big enough sample for me to downgrade Miller, but I wonder if he might be starting to regress at 39 years old. His tools could be closer to 55’s. Hernandez moved down to 145 lbs. to take on Billy Quarantillo and he did the one thing you don’t do in a Quarantillo fight. Run out of gas. Hernandez looked good in the 1st round. Didn’t manage his cardio. Gas tank hit empty towards the middle of the 2nd round and Quarantillo took over. Hernandez goes back up to 155 lbs here. Probably has more to do with him taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. Hernandez is the better fighter, so he should land more strikes and do enough to win, despite the short notice.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hernandez -225
Evan Elder vs Nazim Sadykhov
- Evan Elder
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Nazim Sadykhov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I wasn’t that impressed with Elder outside the UFC and I wasn’t impressed with his UFC debut losing to Preston Parsons. 50 tools across the board. Sadykhov had the performance of his career on the Contender. Showed improved wrestling and striking from what I’d seen of him outside the UFC. I haven’t seen a ton from either guy, but I expect Sadykhov to win with his hands.
Chris’ Pick: Sadykhov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sadykhov -225
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Lina Lansberg
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat Yanan Wu. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted Stephanie Egger, a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Lina Lansberg
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 4-5 at 135 lbs. 4-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Beat Macy Chiasson and Tonya Evinger.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lansberg has still shown a lot of fight despite being 40 years old. It is possible that her wrestling is more like a 55 though. Karol Rosa had more success controlling Lansberg on the ground than I thought she would. Total coin flip fight. Striking should be close. But it’s possible Bueno Silva elevated her grappling to a 65 in the Egger fight and think she’ll win on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Bueno Silva by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bueno Silva -135
Jamall Emmers vs Khusein Askhabov
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Khusein Askhabov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 23-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
That split decision loss to Giga Chikadze sure has aged well on Emmers’ record. But this is still a tricky fight to pick. Yes, the close loss to Chikadze looks good. But Emmers underwhelmed me in the Vince Cachero fight. Maybe Cachero is better than I think and it’s possible Emmers striking could be a 65, but I have him as a 60 for now as his striking with Cachero was close to equal. Yes, Askhabov has this sparkling, undefeated record. Yes, he’s beaten a handful of solid prospects. But there’s not much video out there on him. And one of the fights that’s available, was from 6 years ago when he took on a well rounded 9-2 fighter. And I wasn’t overly impressed. Askhabov got the better of the striking, but grappling was close to equal. After watching the fight, I had his striking as a 55 and grappling as a 50, but I recognize that Askhabov has most likely improved since then. So I’ll admit there’s some projection baked in. And based on where I have both guys graded at, this is a tough fight to pick, but I think Emmers will have a wrestling edge and is more likely to be better than where I have him graded.
Chris’ Pick: Emmers by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Emmers -135
Ovince St Preux vs Philipe Lins
- Ovince St Preux
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 14-9 at light heavyweight. 13-11 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Ben Rothwell and Volkan Oezdemir.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Corey Anderson, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Tyson Pedro, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, and Yushin Okami. Split decision over Shogun Rua.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Philipe Lins
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Beat Marcin Prachnio.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The Lins vs Prachnio fight went about as I expected. Striking was very close to equal. But Lins won the fight by repeatedly taking 60 wrestler Prachnio down. St. Preux’s last fight with Shogun was a weird one. Neither was aggressive. Looked like a sparring match. Market closed with St Preux as a -265 favorite. I agreed with it. But the striking the first two rounds was close to equal, before St Preux pulled away in the 3rd round. Not sure if Shogun’s striking was closer to a 65 in that fight, but either way, I’ve seen too much of St Preux to change how I have his striking graded.
Chris’ Pick: St Preux by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: St Preux -150
AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo
- AJ Fletcher
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Gorimbo is a decent prospect. Watched his last fight with a well rounded 13-6 fighter. Gorimbo’s wrestling was better than I thought. 60. I think his striking is a 55, but I could be wrong. He threw a lot, probably to set up the take downs, not sure if he could keep up that volume and pace for longer durations. Fletcher’s fight with Loosa is hard to gague as Fletcher hurt Loosa in the 2nd round and completely emptied the tank to try and get him out. But Loosa was able to hang on and took over after that. It’s possible Gorimbo’s wrestling could be a 65, but I don’t think he’ll be able to win with just take downs. Fletcher should win a close one because he has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Fletcher by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fletcher -125
Juancamilo Ronderos vs Clayton Carpenter
- Juancamilo Ronderos
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 4-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Split decision win over Eric Shelton.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Clayton Carpenter
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
On the surface, it looks like Ronderos was wiped out by David Dvorak. And he was. But. He did fight on really short notice. And. Despite getting subbed quick, when they did trade strikes, shots landed was close to equal. That was almost 2 years ago, so I expect Ronderos to look much better on a full camp. Some might have been surprised Carpenter’s fight with Chairez was close, but I wasn’t. I actually thought Chairez should’ve been favored. Strikes were close to equal, but Carpenter squeaked out the win with his wrestling. This is a tough fight to pick because it’s hard to predict what Ronderos will look like, but on paper, Carpenter’s power should be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Carpenter by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Carpenter -175